  Civilprotectionunit4346 Member Username: Civilprotectionunit4346 Post Number: 183 Registered: 06-2007 |
Whats funny..is they will say its Il' Nino..or whatever else they wanna brew up. Face it....global warming is here. Soon the floodwaters will rise and the polar bears will be chewing on people. | ||
Miss_cleo Member Username: Miss_cleo Post Number: 714 Registered: 05-2005 |
Plenty of rain up here, its rained every day or every other day for about 2 weeks now | ||
Civilprotectionunit4346 Member Username: Civilprotectionunit4346 Post Number: 188 Registered: 06-2007 |
Dry as a bone down where I work in Troy. The grass where I work is drying up... | ||
Urbanize Member Username: Urbanize Post Number: 1708 Registered: 02-2007 |
I hate The Cullen enslaved boobs that always jump to the Conclusion of Global Warming. Sheesh, it's just an unusual weather pattern this summer. It has happened in the past. The weather pattern will be different next year. CPU4346, you must wait on the atmosphere to heat and boil before we can see anything develop. (Message edited by Urbanize on July 12, 2007) | ||
Civilprotectionunit4346 Member Username: Civilprotectionunit4346 Post Number: 195 Registered: 06-2007 |
If you still believe that global warming isn't here...just go to Antartica. I know let's bring back non-ozone friendly hairspray...LOL! | ||
Urbanize Member Username: Urbanize Post Number: 1710 Registered: 02-2007 |
I bet you all were complaining about how we got Rain every single day the past two summers. Last Year, we were stuck in a Troughy pattern. In other words, those Upper Level Lows were hitting us hard with those Instability Thunderstorms. I remember I was out at Eastland one day and it was just pouring rain off and on for about 7 times the whole day. Then the last round brought through one heck of a t'storm. Another day, I had plans that evening (it was 3:30 in the afternoon), so I get ready to head into the hosue and pouring rain again. | ||
Urbanize Member Username: Urbanize Post Number: 1711 Registered: 02-2007 |
See us weathermen just say "Fuck you" because you folks are never satisfy by a weather condition. Y'all want one thing one second, another thing the next. Sheesh, what nags. | ||
Ghetto_butterfly Member Username: Ghetto_butterfly Post Number: 724 Registered: 09-2004 |
Today, another disappointment by Mother Nature. Several storms were announced, none happened. At least we had a few clouds this afternoon, and I counted a whopping 50+ rain drops this afternoon on my windshield. I went to my favorite car repair shop this afternoon and the guy reminded me to take care of my long overdue tune-up. I told him it's not necessary right now and he said yeah because it hasn't been raining in a long time. | ||
Hardliner Member Username: Hardliner Post Number: 59 Registered: 02-2007 |
LOL @ Ed_golick Ed, That was too funny! :d | ||
Urbanize Member Username: Urbanize Post Number: 1735 Registered: 02-2007 |
"Today, another disappointment by Mother Nature. Several storms were announced, none happened. At least we had a few clouds this afternoon, and I counted a whopping 50+ rain drops this afternoon on my windshield. I went to my favorite car repair shop this afternoon and the guy reminded me to take care of my long overdue tune-up. I told him it's not necessary right now and he said yeah because it hasn't been raining in a long time." Yeah, our area is headed into one heck of a drought (particularly south of 8 Mile). Despite the system's strong dynamics, the instability with all the Clouds yesterday was in check and the Convergence was pretty meager as well. Now Monday (if there's no other disappointments), the Models are forecasting a Swath of 0.75 to 1 Inch rain amounts in the areas along and south of 8 Mile. These systems that continue to come through are very dynamic, but the past system and this upcoming one may lack the instability. If all the conditions can come together as well head into Monday Night, we could be looking at one Stormy one. The SPC has the Central and Southern Portions of SE Michigan in the Slight Risk Area For Severe WEather. So far, the favorable instability only supports Wet Microbursts (Thunderstorms that produce damaging torrential downdrafts). The area need them though desperately. | ||
Miss_cleo Member Username: Miss_cleo Post Number: 719 Registered: 05-2005 |
Yeah, we were downstate this past weekend, very dry in your neck of the woods. I guess I should stop complaining about the rain we have been getting up here. Its putting the staining of my deck on hold, I am halfway finished and it keeps raining. Guess we are lucky right now though from the looks of downstate | ||
Crystal Member Username: Crystal Post Number: 9 Registered: 05-2007 |
The US Drought Monitor shows that our area was very dry only six days ago: http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/ monitor.html | ||
Urbanize Member Username: Urbanize Post Number: 1756 Registered: 02-2007 |
ON the TWC, their Drought Monitor showed the Far Southern counties of SE Michigan were already in the Low-Moderate Range. | ||
Urbanize Member Username: Urbanize Post Number: 1757 Registered: 02-2007 |
The best chance of rain these next few days will be Tomorrow, and Severe Weather is certainly possible if we can get a big influx of Moisture and SBCAPE Tomorrow Afternoon. | ||
Jerome81 Member Username: Jerome81 Post Number: 1567 Registered: 11-2003 |
urbanize- I'll believe it when it finally happens  seems nothing is coming together for SE Michigan the last several weeks. Better chance tomorrow but from what I've seen, the chances are higher farther west. Like Illinois and W Michigan. | ||
Urbanize Member Username: Urbanize Post Number: 1762 Registered: 02-2007 |
Yeah, that's where the best Instability Axis sits (Thickness, Moisture and Storm Track). The NW Flow have kept the storms moving from NW to SE following the Axis of best Thickness, and the best instability or Thickness lies to the west of us. SE Michigan is still under the Effects of a Ridge in place over Eastern Canada. It also depends on how far east that ridge moves that will determine how active our weather is. The Stationary Front causing the action in place over N. Kentucky and S. Ohio will move Northward into Central Southern Michigan tomorrow (likely running it's course as it reaches somewhere in between the I-94 and I-69 corridors), but the best instability and Thickness staying to the SW. However, Jet Stream Energy will be in Place tomorrow compared to today along with some Upper Level Support. In general, it could be one Gray, but Muggy Summer's Day tomorrow more so than a Stormy one. | ||
Danny Member Username: Danny Post Number: 6219 Registered: 02-2004 |
The good Lord have reduced the Summer rainfall due to our ignorance. We have miss his blessings too much. If we want rain we must stop being ignorant to each other. The prophecy according to Dueteromony is coming true. | ||
Jerome81 Member Username: Jerome81 Post Number: 1573 Registered: 11-2003 |
Well, looks like today is not shaping up for Michigan storms again. I think the slight risk for severe weather this morning was a line from Iowa, across north IL, and into west and central MI. This afternoon it now includes Iowa but just west of Chicago really turns to the south and excludes all of MI. Bummer again. | ||
Urbanize Member Username: Urbanize Post Number: 1772 Registered: 02-2007 |
Yeah, because of course of the clouds and also, the best instability was in that region. Tomorrow, the Front will Setup over the region it was expecte to today. All of SE and Central MI is in the Slight Risk area, as Guidance is indicating a Moderate SBCAPE of 2000 J/KG. However, the Wilde Card again will be whether or not a morning round of Rain Showers (if there is one) leaves an extensive amount of cloud cover. If so ,the severe weather threat (like today) will be slashed. The Flow (unlike from the NW to SE today) will be E to W tomorrow, putting us i nthe more favorable instability axis. | ||
Bulletmagnet Member Username: Bulletmagnet Post Number: 835 Registered: 01-2007 |
SBCAPE of 2000 J/KG? What's the mumbo on this jumbo? Rain or not? We need rain, so command it to rain Urbanize. Take that SCABIE 2 grand and floor it! | ||
Urbanize Member Username: Urbanize Post Number: 1779 Registered: 02-2007 |
SBCAPE= Surface Based Convective Available Potential Energy or in dummy terms, Air favorable for Thunderstorms to form. In this case, the higher the number using the J/KG measurement, the more favorable the air is. Not in all cases though, such as a Capped atmosphere or when CIHN is in place. That is when Warm, Dry Air Aloft compresses any updrafts back to the surface and causes the air to sink, even in the most favorable air for thunderstorms. In that case, the higher the number is for the J/KG measurement, the harder or even more unlikely it will be for an updraft to sustain itself, or thunderstorms to form. (Message edited by Urbanize on July 17, 2007) | ||
Jerome81 Member Username: Jerome81 Post Number: 1574 Registered: 11-2003 |
Gonna guess J/KG is Joules per KiloGram? What is it? Anything over 10,000 is very explosive? Legendary outbreaks were what, 15,000 J/KG? Maybe I'm mixing that up with something else.... | ||
Urbanize Member Username: Urbanize Post Number: 1780 Registered: 02-2007 |
No, those at this point and time as far as I know are generally impossible. 2000 J/KG is a pretty strong CAPE in itself. Anything that or above is favorable for Severe Thunderstorms to form at the surface. The highest CAPE recorded in U.S. history is 5500 J/KG (I believe it was somewhere in the plains). Typically, you must have a high MLCAPE, (Mixed Layer), which means air favorable for thunderstorms aloft, as well for thunderstorms to form. They help to sustain the strong updrafts and organize them. One thing though, the more dynamics you have for thunderstorms (Wind Shear, Steep Lapse Rates, Cold Air Aloft), the less amount of Joules you need for thunderstorms to develop. However, no matter how much CAPE you have, you'll need a Forcing Mechanism, (such as a lake breeze, Low Pressure, Cold Front, Warm Front) to help push the updrafts up even faster. Which, we will have the forcing mechanisms and dynamics tomorrow. | ||
Jerome81 Member Username: Jerome81 Post Number: 1577 Registered: 11-2003 |
I remember reading about this CAPE. Stumbled across the Plainfield, IL tornado (F5) and they mention excess of 8000j/kg. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T he_Plainfield_Tornado "The atmosphere on the 28th was significantly more unstable as the approach of a low-pressure system from the northwest cooled the mid levels (and also caused dynamic lifting) as instability continued to build in the capped, muggy environment, although the wind fields (strong, but out of the west-northwest and unidirectional) were not suitable for significant tornadic development. As a result of the very high low-level temperature and dew point, convective available potential energy (CAPE) values were in excess of 8,000 J/kg; generally, values of 1,500 J/kg are considered to be moderately unstable, whereas values of more than 4,000 J/kg are considered "extreme". The lifted index (LI), the dominant estimate of instability used at the time, was also extreme. Generally, a LI value of -6 șC or below readily supports severe thunderstorm development, but during the day the LI value ranged from -12 șC to -14 șC. Such extreme instability can lead to explosive thunderstorm development, very strong updrafts, and modulates the updraft to better enable tornadogenesis. Conditions were ripe for severe thunderstorm development, and with both low level and high level steering winds from the west-northwest, the National Severe Storms Forecast Center issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for northern Illinois valid 1:30 P.M. through 8:00 P.M. CDT that night. The NSSFC predicted a derecho-type event for later that night as rapidly developing thunderstorms along a cold front in Wisconsin would be carried by the steering flow into the Chicago area. One of these storms developed supercellular characteristics south of Rockford, steering 30 to 40 degrees to the right of prevailing steering winds. By now, mid-level steering winds had begun to veer, causing a wind profile slightly more favorable for tornadic development. Once a tornado formed, the extreme instability contributed heavily to its rapid development into a violent, one-half mile (.75 km) wide tornado." link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T he_Plainfield_Tornado | ||
Mackinaw Member Username: Mackinaw Post Number: 3258 Registered: 02-2005 |
Urbanize, I'm sure you watched the radar as that MCS thunderstorm cluster marched across Illinois today. In the evening hours tonight (i.e. right now), things appear to be perculating a bit in central Michigan and Wisconsin. The forecast currently call for likely showers/storms tomorrow morning. Do you think we will see another MCS cluster form and move SE into our region by the morning? I'd like to see the 1-2 hours of heavy rain that would bring. We had a tenth of an inch of rain today, if that. | ||
Urbanize Member Username: Urbanize Post Number: 1781 Registered: 02-2007 |
Interesting. I knew about that event, but didn't hear of the atmospheric conditions during the event. Thanks Jerome. | ||
Urbanize Member Username: Urbanize Post Number: 1782 Registered: 02-2007 |
"In the evening hours tonight (i.e. right now), things appear to be perculating a bit in central Michigan and Wisconsin. The forecast currently call for likely showers/storms tomorrow morning. Do you think we will see another MCS cluster form and move SE into our region by the morning? I'd like to see the 1-2 hours of heavy rain that would bring. We had a tenth of an inch of rain today, if that" The Warm Front over SD, MN, WI, and IL is being watched for a Tornado Watch this evening for explosive development like last night. Since it is further northward than yesterday, it will affect areas further eastward instead of SEward. However, the issue is, the Steering winds will still be veering to the SE somewhat, taking the brunt of it over Indiana and Illinois while bringing the weakening northern end of it over SE Michigan. | ||
Urbanize Member Username: Urbanize Post Number: 1783 Registered: 02-2007 |
 | ||
Mikem Member Username: Mikem Post Number: 3384 Registered: 10-2003 |
Are you Danny's kid brother? | ||
Urbanize Member Username: Urbanize Post Number: 1785 Registered: 02-2007 |
I will leave that childish question alone. Just because someone has a stronger interest in something that you don't doesn't mean you have to attack it or that person. Back to the topic. |
