Post Number: 108
|Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2007 - 4:17 pm: || |
Have you ever noticed that MSN seems to be the worst scorce for auto information. i.e. Everytime I see an article titled "Most Popular Cars" and open link, the cars listed are not the most popular selling but rather the most popular searches on MSN auto.
Post Number: 311
|Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2007 - 4:53 pm: || |
NDavies - and you are basing yours on "one tiny article" on CNN.
Quote: What ya got against Detroit? It's quite obvious you're trying to convince everyone here how bad the outlook is. Ok, you hate Detroit, It's products and happy it's not doing well. Point taken. Must be a reason, did someone fire you here? Did you buy an import and realize when it's paid off it will be worthless? Just curious.
That's a damn stupid comment. I was quoting an article - they wrote that not me. I would love for Detroit auto makers to do well. I would love to buy a high quality small US-built car if they made one. I believe that it is a mistake for US auto makers to continue to build large vehicles when the trend is going to smaller vehicles. I lived through the oil shock of the seventies and the emergence and the increased dominance of the Japanese auto makers in the US markets. I, like many others, laughed at the "rice burners" like the tiny Honda Civic of that era. The difference is that I learned my lesson. The fact is that things don't look good for the domestic auto industry (or will NDavies manipulate some more statistics to try to prove me wrong there too?) I am not happy about it at all. I wish that Detroit was leading the way instead of trying to play catch-up.
Post Number: 314
|Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2007 - 5:12 pm: || |
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ news?pid=20601103&sid=asXVs1Ew ow9g&refer=news
Some quotes from that article:
"Small cars and car-based sport-utility vehicles ``are really carrying the momentum,'' said Jesse Toprak, an analyst at forecasting firm Edmunds.com in Santa Monica, California."
"Gasoline prices again approaching $3 a gallon contributed to a 1.8 percent drop in industry truck sales through October."
"GM, up 3.4 percent, had its third-straight monthly sales gain and lifted its market share to 25 percent. The Detroit automaker was helped by car sales in its Chevrolet division, such as the small Aveo model. Hummer sales suffered, falling 31 percent, and GM's best-selling vehicle, the Chevy Silverado large pickup, dropped 7 percent. "
"Prius gasoline-electric hybrid sales rose 51 percent"
Post Number: 933
|Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2007 - 11:43 pm: || |
In other words: Among the top ten sellers in 2006 were 1,796,285 trucks and 2,125,625 cars. Thanks for proving my point.
Your point is not proven in this top ten list.
Three of the top 4 best selling vehicles in America are trucks.
Three of the top 4 best selling CARS in America are midsize sedans, not economy class.
The Camry, Accord, and Impala get around 20 MPG city, and 30 MPG highway. The base models, with smaller engines will get a little better than 20/30, but the upgraded models with bigger engines will get a little less than 20/30.
Only ONE of the top 7 best selling vehicles in America is a small car.
Post Number: 553
|Posted on Wednesday, November 07, 2007 - 12:10 am: || |
Quote: "I wish that Detroit was leading the way instead of trying to play catch-up."
No, you mean you wish they could build whatever you want whenever you want it. SUV's were selling, they build what sells. The market is fickle and flighty. Unfortunately, to change models and directions for the manufacturer takes years. Gas can go up or down a dollar overnight. Case in point, If gas were to drop a dollar over the next month, should the big 3 continue to go after the hybrid market? And still cut back the low fuel economy vehicle production? Personally, and many share my attitude, we could care less if gas is 3.00 a gallon. We wish it were lower, but it isn't going to affect our vehicle purchase. And from the numbers you're posting it looks like the majority feels that way. If it was such an issue, sales of some models would be plummeting and they aren't. Comfort and safety are much more important.
Post Number: 67
|Posted on Wednesday, November 07, 2007 - 3:26 am: || |
of course the market is fucking fickle, there isn't an endless supply of fuel. this was staring at the domestics in their face for a long time but they ignored it.
they chose to go in the wrong direction by pushing inefficiency, and they're paying the consequences. it's as simple as that. at least they're trying nowadays. (love the new saturn astra, and can't wait for ford to bring over the euro focus and possibly even something like the fiesta/ka)
Post Number: 315
|Posted on Wednesday, November 07, 2007 - 8:25 am: || |
Quote: No, you mean you wish they could build whatever you want whenever you want it.
You mean like the Japanese offer? You can still buy a big Japanese SUV or a small car. They have the market covered. The American manufacturers chase whatever is popular at the moment instead of looking at trends and planning for the future. It is a shame because the US engineers are great at leading the pack. US manufacturers make the best PROTOTYPES in the world.
I never wanted an SUV, BTW. I wouldn't take a Expedition if they were selling for $5000 and gas was going for $1 a gallon.
Post Number: 316
|Posted on Wednesday, November 07, 2007 - 8:38 am: || |
quote: Case in point, If gas were to drop a dollar over the next month, should the big 3 continue to go after the hybrid market?
Well, it won't so what is the point of your argument? Gas will be going to all time high prices ($100 a barrel) by the end of this year. Where is this oil going to come from that will make prices drop a dollar?
quote: And from the numbers you're posting it looks like the majority feels that way.
Not according to my numbers. We are talking about trends, not past sales numbers. Who cares what people bought in 2006? Who cares what people bought last month? What are they going to buy THIS month and NEXT month?
Post Number: 2871
|Posted on Wednesday, November 07, 2007 - 9:43 am: || |
OK, lets talk about what they are buying now by product.
Yes, the Prius is growing in sales. Toyota has expanded production for 2007 to 300,000 units. Unfortunately that is 300,000 units world wide. A drop in the bucket considering total world vehicle production is somewhere around 45 million vehicles.
Lets look at the other Hybrids. September sales of Hybrid are down 1.2% over the previous year. I haven't seen an october number yet. Honda, the first to market with a hybrid, announced they will no longer be selling accord Hybrids due to very low sales. They are going to try diesel.
Hybrid highlander sales dropped as did Yaris sales. Yaris is Toyotas most fuel efficient non hybrid.
October Tundra sales are up 20% over last year. This years Tundra is a much larger and less fuel efficient vehicle. So according to your theory Tundra sales should be in the tank. If Toyota didn't think there was going to be a good truck market, Why would they build a huge new full size truck plant in Texas and significantly upsize the vehicle? The also introduced a new much larger V8 for it. The Tundra also gets lower fuel mileage than equivilent domestic products. Not a smart move if they were worried about fuel mileage.
Chrysler's sales were down across the board. Dodge ram truck sales are down. That truck is the oldest pickup on the market. It is due for a redesign next year.
Chrysler Minivan sales were also down. Minivans are part of the truck market. Chrysler is in the midst of launching a new minivan. Supplies were way down. However the Town & country, which did make it to showrooms in quantity, showed a very respectable increase in sales over last year.
In one of the above article they tout BMW sales growth. The only BMW that can even be considered close to fuel efficient is the Mini. Most BMW's are overweight gas sucking pigs. They are one of the finest driving vehicles in the world. But a vehicle capable of doing 150 all day on the autobahn would never be considered fuel efficient.
GM's large SUV's are actually seeing an increase in sales from last year.
Yes, Pickup truck sales are down over last year. Pickups are the preferred vehicle of contractors. So what contractor is going to buy a new truck with the current state of new home sales this year? With the current state of the housing market pickup sales should be way lower if they were also suffering from fuel price shock.
Once again you are using a 4% drop in 1 month to base your claim that everyone is fleeing bigger vehicles. And once again I state september and october are always outliers compared to the rest of the year in production terms.
I didn't base my opinion on one CNN article. My opinion was formed by the data I see crossing my desk every day. 25 years of automotive experience tell me october was a fluke. Truck sales are already stablizing and will continue to gain market share into next year.
The current gas prices are driven by political fear and not true market demand. Gas prices will drop once again. A few things need to happen. Pakistan needs to get back to democracy. China needs to stop subsidizing it's gasoline sales and let the price rise to the market driven price it needs to be. The American financial markets need to settle out so the dollar can begin to climb against other world currencies.
Post Number: 2100
|Posted on Wednesday, November 07, 2007 - 10:46 am: || |
^2/3's of a percent for an ugly hybrid is pretty good! Imagine how good they could do if they made the thing look mildly attractive...
Post Number: 612
|Posted on Wednesday, November 07, 2007 - 10:58 am: || |
I can't wait till I get my Aptera a few years down the line if they can get it into production.330mpgs that would be nice and to only have to pay motorcycle insurance...
Post Number: 317
|Posted on Wednesday, November 07, 2007 - 11:06 am: || |
Yes, you are right. October was a fluke. According to your own CNN article:
"And some of the drop in car sales is due to a deliberate decision by the U.S. automakers to cut back on less profitable fleet sales to businesses, particularly rental car companies."
So car sales should be EVEN HIGHER.
quote: A few things need to happen. Pakistan needs to get back to democracy. China needs to stop subsidizing it's gasoline sales and let the price rise to the market driven price it needs to be. The American financial markets need to settle out so the dollar can begin to climb against other world currencies.
...and we need to win the Iraq war, and we need to get the rest of the Middle East to come together with us to sing Kumbayyah, and we need to find about 200 billion more gallons of domestic oil, and we need to have world peace.
Prices were higher before Pakistan declared martial law. How much oil do we get from Pakistan anyway? China needs to stop subsidizing their gasoline sales and let the market take over? Newsflash- China is a communist country and does not have a free market system! How likely is it that they will do anything so that Americans can continue to drive their Hummers?
I challenge you to find one analyst who is predicting oil prices will drop. Do a search on "oil prices" on Google and learn something.
25 years of automotive experience hunh? So how have those 25 years been going for the industry anyway?
Post Number: 2872
|Posted on Wednesday, November 07, 2007 - 2:09 pm: || |
Gas prices locally were higher before Pakistan declared martial law. Crude oil was much lower. Pakistan is a nuclear power With a very large islamic population. If you thought oil prices were high now, what do you think happens if Pakistan launches a nuclear attack on it's neighbor and arch enemy India. Do you remember what happened last time Inda and Pakistan had a minor little skirmish?
You asked me to show a report expecting them to go down.
First link from a google search. (3 weeks old)
http://edition.cnn.com/2007/BU SINESS/10/19/oil.prices.ap/ind ex.html
Vienna's PVM Oil Associates said the surge "cannot be fully explained by market fundamentals, as the related factors are generally more bearish than bullish."
Data released in recent weeks shows speculative buying of oil futures is on the rise.
"While oil markets are tight, there is a question as to whether the current price is sustainable," Moore said.
Some analysts think oil prices have far outpaced levels that are justified by the underlying principles of supply and demand. These analysts blame market speculators for pushing crude prices to record levels, and predict that a correction, or sharp decline, is imminent.
Meanwhile, estimates of where oil is headed from here range from $50 a barrel to $120. Flynn, who long ago predicted prices would rise to near $100 this year, now says he is beginning to doubt whether prices will actually reach $100 a barrel during the current price spike.
"I think the market is due for a correction," Flynn said.
25 years of automotive experience hunh? So how have those 25 years been going for the industry anyway?
Who Gives a crap about the rest of the industry. Those 25 years have been going great for me. Not every autoworker is a plant worker who is being downsized out by automation and foreign outsourcing. I'm in a growing segment of the industry, in a position where they can't find enough people to do what I do.
Even Companies that are aggressively downsizing have job postings for my skills. The upcoming CAFE changes are making me more valuable by the minute.
Post Number: 4902
|Posted on Wednesday, November 07, 2007 - 2:26 pm: || |
When you adjust for inflation, gas prices were higher in 1980 than now.
Post Number: 318
|Posted on Wednesday, November 07, 2007 - 4:53 pm: || |
Yep, but at $100 a barrel it is still higher than at any time in history even after adjusting for inflation. Current price: $96.37
NDavies, you are really getting boring. Why don't you report what those same reports that you mention are also saying, for instance:
"The IEA concluded that growing demand for energy in China and India will boost the world's oil needs by more than 50 percent by 2030."
Hmm, that sounds like market demand to me.
Or how about:
"Oil prices are up 42 percent since August. Their seemingly relentless climb does raise the question of how high energy prices will go. If crude does keep going up, it might be some time until consumers see relief at the pump. Some analysts predict prices could rise as high as $3.50 to $4 a gallon next summer."
Yep, oil prices are headed to the basement. Time to build some more Hummers.
It is interesting that your attitude is "who gives a crap" about the US auto industry and I was the one accused of being a Detroit-hater.
Post Number: 2875
|Posted on Thursday, November 08, 2007 - 9:37 am: || |
NDavies, you are really getting boring.
You sound like a person running out of valid arguments
Yes, demand is growing. everyone acknowledges that. Fortunately that is only one side of the equation. The other side is supply. You seem to be under the mistaken impression that supply is static. the real question becomes will demand outstrip supply.
Yes, supply is static at a certain price point. But at $100 a barrel previously unprofitable supplies can now become profitable. And demand will back off.
Over the summer we saw countries sending subs under the northern artic ice looking to lay claim to the ocean bottom. Why would they do that? Well at $50 a barrel it didn't make sense to look for oil there. At $100 a barrel it makes perfect sense.
Oil in the tar sands of Montana and Alberta is expensive to collect. Very few companies have been doing it since they couldn't make a profit at $50 a barrel. But at $100 a barrel this also makes perfect sense.
We know there's oil under the deep pacific ocean. We haven't gone after it since it's very expensive to try to drill though water that deep. Now that Oil is $100 a barrel you can invest more money in more sophisticated oil rigs capable of drilling in those depths.
Oil is a commodity. It follows the rules all commodities follow. Just as there has been collapses in the Stock, Housing, Vehicle, Tulip, Pepper, Diamond, Gold, Coal steel .... markets there will once again be a collapse in the oil market if supplies overrun demand.
It makes no sense to look for oil in places that are going to cost you more to collect it than to sell it.
Yes, Known oil reserves are down. But at $50 dollars a barrel there wasn't much pressure to look for new oil. At $100 a barrel every oil company, oil investor, Wannabe oil company, wannabe oil investor, and every Joe Shmoe with a mutual fund are dumping money into the exploration for oil. My guess is Oil reserves will dramatically increase in the next 5 years.
Oil futures are a promise to buy oil at a fixed price in the future. Many of the people buying futures have no place to actually put that oil. What happens when those futures become due and they can't sell the oil to someone who actually can use the oil. Just like the housing market with people buying a place they had no intention of using. Eventually there comes a point where they have to liquidate the excess stock. The Oil market looks like an overbought market to me. A crash is coming. It's Time to start selling those oil futures short.
(Message edited by ndavies on November 08, 2007)
Post Number: 555
|Posted on Thursday, November 08, 2007 - 11:31 am: || |
Quote: "When you adjust for inflation, gas prices were higher in 1980 than now."
And when one considers gas was 25 cents a gallon in the 60's and most people were making 2 or 3 dollars an hour, it's basically the same price right now that it was then.
Post Number: 636
|Posted on Thursday, November 08, 2007 - 8:34 pm: || |
not a grease hauler, a recycler of waste.
Lets face facts, pickups and suv's are awesome vehicles, I own a Sierra, I love it. My dad traded in a Olds 88 diesel which was a lemon.
BUT, Detroit focused too much on big profit large vehicles for too long, it's time to focus on market share for high quality high mileage small cars, they will buy larger cars later, hopefully.
Post Number: 321
|Posted on Thursday, November 08, 2007 - 9:50 pm: || |
Ok, let's make a bet. If the prices at the pump drop $1 by the end of the year, I will owe you $100. If the oil prices go up over $100 a barrel by the end of the year, you owe me $100. Takers?
So you think that we should base an economy on oil that might be found somewhere at sometime? You are really living in a fantasy world if you think that they are going to be drilling oil under the North Pole. How are they going to get the rigs there? How will they man it, transport the oil out, get the tankers in, keep things from freezing up? We need to plan for a world where oil is no longer cheap or plentiful, not some Jules Verne fantasy. We already had a taste of this in the 70's. Oil prices went up, Detroit didn't react and the Japanese kicked our asses. That is what is happening again right now because folks with "years of experience" in the industry can't seem to remember back 30 years.
Post Number: 558
|Posted on Friday, November 09, 2007 - 12:13 am: || |
Quote: "That is what is happening again right now because folks with "years of experience" in the industry can't seem to remember back 30 years."
Or they are smart enough to realize its not as simple as you're presenting it. Just make small cars, problem solved, just find another source of energy, problem solved! It's not that simple. What's funny is how so many are now suggesting we look for alternative means of energy for transportation. Do they really think nobody has been trying? Do they really think Detroit was focused solely on SUV's because thats all they know how to build? Get real, they build what sells. A few years ago Michigan truck was the most profitable manufacturing facility in the world, should they have pulled the plug on it? According to them, they should have dropped that and started building economy cars. Which incidently weren't selling. Asian mfr's build small cars? Newsflash, their motivation to build small cars is not to save anyone money at the pump. It has more to do with raw material, cheap labor and logistics. They are doing what they always did. Just a better time to do it presently.
I agree, they should have had a better contingency plan in the event that fuel prices spiked. Or better intelligence into what was coming. Of course Donald Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz were preaching cheaper oil if we invade Iraq. As was the President. They promised oil prices would not be affected or at least cheaper.
Re: The hundred dollar bet,
Bet on anything with our current government? No way.
Post Number: 2882
|Posted on Friday, November 09, 2007 - 10:24 am: || |
Sorry, I already did my gambling. I bought both Ford and GM stock before the Union contract was signed.
I'll let you know how i did in about 4 years.
If you really thing you're right you should be rushing out to buy Oil futures.
(Message edited by ndavies on November 09, 2007)
Post Number: 934
|Posted on Sunday, November 11, 2007 - 4:24 am: || |
We need to plan for a world where oil is no longer cheap or plentiful, not some Jules Verne fantasy. We already had a taste of this in the 70's. Oil prices went up, Detroit didn't react and the Japanese kicked our asses. That is what is happening again right now because folks with "years of experience" in the industry can't seem to remember back 30 years.
The Detroit auto industry remembers the last 30 years, but it seems that you don't.
The oil embargo/crisis of 1973 caused a short-term spike in gas prices, followed by 30 years of cheap gas prices.
Twenty years after the OPEC embargo, Americans were paying around dollar for a gallon of gasoline, and sometimes even less.
Thirty years after the OPEC embargo, Americans were paying around $1.50 for a gallon of gasoline.
Post Number: 926
|Posted on Sunday, November 11, 2007 - 11:22 am: || |
I think what is missing in the American auto market is a small block diesel engine. Many European and Japanese autos come with 4 or 6 banger diesel power. We make plenty of Detroit Diesels for large trucks, but nothing that fit small cars, or small trucks for that matter.
Post Number: 576
|Posted on Sunday, November 11, 2007 - 11:45 am: || |
Right on, A small turbocharged 2 or 3 cylinder diesel would provide the economy that everyone claims they need. If they will drive an electric car with poor performance, a small diesel would provide basically the same. No hauling around a huge battery bank, etc.
Another thing that needs to be done is lower vehicle weight and size limits. They wont be as safe, but if people want real economy, thats what it's going to take.
Post Number: 2883
|Posted on Sunday, November 11, 2007 - 9:34 pm: || |
The European Diesels do not meet '08 U.S. EPA Rules. They were all pulled from U.S. Sales last year. VW, Mercedes and Jeep will be offering the only Diesels capable of meeting US rules. They do not meet California rules and cannot be sold there. New Diesels are on the way to the market that will meet California rules. They're waiting on EPA sign off.
Post Number: 465
|Posted on Tuesday, December 04, 2007 - 2:20 pm: || |
November sales figures are out - Domestic car sales are up 8.4% and overall car sales are up 5.4%. Domestic light truck sales are (surprise surprise) down 9.1% and overall truck sales are (you guessed it)down 7.6%. Prius sales are up 109%!
I love it when I am right.
Post Number: 33
|Posted on Tuesday, December 04, 2007 - 4:01 pm: || |
News flash. People ar ebuilding cars that run on fucking
All of this hybrid/hydrogen bullshit is only a ploy to extend fossil fuel usage.
Clinton put a plan together in1996 to triple gas milage.
Average Gas milage has not gone up since the Model T, this is a fact.
Bush killed clintons plan and put the FreedomCar act into place,
which is a hydrogen plan, which will also never really take off.
All you suckers that don;t believe the oil companies are calling the shots must go to great lengths to avoid this FACT.
The guy that built the water powered car is now dead. Possible assasination. There are still people doing it though.
Post Number: 1768
|Posted on Tuesday, December 04, 2007 - 4:09 pm: || |
So is it possible? I just happened on this thread. US vehicle fuel economy is my chosen topic on a research paper for a class I am taking. I saw some good points on each post, and yes this guy does sound like a snake oil salesman, sure. But, he was on NPR and the Guvinator is having him convert his Jeep Grand Wagoneer over, doesn't that lend him some credibility? I'd like to see one of the major car magz, i.e Moter Trend take his H2 and run it through the battery of tests to see how it holds out. Does it get the stated mileage promised? How durable is this thing in city driving, cold starts, etc.? Once that happens and his technology is all he says it is...aww shit look out!
Post Number: 573
|Posted on Thursday, January 03, 2008 - 11:57 am: || |
Paging NDavis! How are those oil futures doing for ya? Too bad you didn't take my bet. I could have used the money.
I love it when I am right (again).
Post Number: 838
|Posted on Thursday, January 03, 2008 - 9:31 pm: || |
well the auto mfgrs better get their s_ together because honda and toyota CAN make smaller better cars and will keep getting a bigger market share like they have been doing the last twenty five years.
Post Number: 584
|Posted on Friday, January 04, 2008 - 10:31 pm: || |
Toyota now tops Ford as the second largest automaker in the US. Why? Maybe because industry "experts" like NDavies think we all still want to buy trucks:
"Japanese and South Korean automakers have steadily picked up sales since gas prices started rising last year. GM, Ford and DaimlerChrysler's Chrysler Group (DCX), which lean more heavily on gas-thirsty pickups and SUVs, have slipped.
The biggest gains have come on small, fuel-sipping cars such as Toyota's Corolla and Matrix, up 36.8%, or Pontiac's G6, up 73.6%. Six of the 10 best-sellers in July were cars. None were SUVs"
"Sales of Ford's F-Series pickup, perennially the nation's best-selling vehicle, were off 45.6% last month. Sales of Chevrolet Silverado, the second-best-selling vehicle, fell 30.6%."
How are those Ford stocks doing for ya NDavies?