Spidergirl Member Username: Spidergirl
Post Number: 323 Registered: 12-2004
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 12:23 pm: | |
Honey, I've lived in Michigan my whole life. I know 'what just happened'. Lighten up. It's people like you on discussion boards who irritate me so much. Nobody can say anything without you jumping down their throat. And over what? A little snow? Get a life. |
Chitaku Member Username: Chitaku
Post Number: 1736 Registered: 03-2006
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 12:23 pm: | |
my dad owns a restaurant and every time the news hypes this weather it kills business for the day and then it doesn't even snow |
Detroitrise Member Username: Detroitrise
Post Number: 1106 Registered: 09-2007
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 12:34 pm: | |
Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1209 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007 ...INCREASED SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED FOR STRONG SNOWSTORM AFFECTING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY... .A WINTER STORM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TOMORROW. MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE ASSURES PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE THUMB REGION IS EXPECTED TO OBSERVE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL HELP TO ENHANCE TOTALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY REACHING 20 TO 30 MPH...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. VISIBILITY AT TIMES WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TRACKING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS HISTORICALLY A FAVORABLE WINTER STORM TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE GREATER DETROIT METROPOLITAN AREA. MIZ069-070-075-076-082-083-160 115- /O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0007.071216T0 500Z-071217T0000Z/ OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE -LENAWEE-MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR... DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE 1209 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME HEAVY BY LATE TONIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO TAPER OFF. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ON SUNDAY CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. SOME SNOW DRIFTS MAY EXCEED TWO FEET DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND WIND ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS VERY HAZARDOUS AND PERSONS SHOULD AVOID TRAVEL WHEN POSSIBLE. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION. |
Mackinaw Member Username: Mackinaw
Post Number: 4160 Registered: 02-2005
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 12:35 pm: | |
Chitaku points out something important. First, people hear that a storm is coming, so they decide against going places, even hours before the snow could even possibly start, so that they don't get "caught." And then, once it's snowing, people still tend to over-estimate things. If you have front wheel drive or 4-wheel drive, you can go anywhere, even if it takes twice as long...we never get those incredible snowfall rates and storm durations that will choke the streets (i.e. a lake effect snow storm in Buffalo or a nor'easter in Boston). The problem is the fear of other bad drivers, I think. Kind of justified. People in Michigan tend to be on the safe side, that's for sure. http://radar.weather.gov/radar .php?product=N0R&rid=IWX&loop= yes While the Detroit radar is out you can watch and and see the snow build in from the SW. The storm is moving slowly, and has hardly even come together yet. The possibilities for tonight and tomorrow morning are kind of ominous from what I hear. The good news is our local forecast office is not over-doing things. They have some reasonable snowfall forecasts that they can adjust upwards if needed. (3-5 inches tonight and 3-7" tomorrow). Compare this the NE indiana bureau which is thinking Hillsdale County (borders on Lenawee) will see nearly twice as much as Lenawee. They're predicting 10-18" there. So that possibility is out there, but you shouldn't be banking on such a rare event beforehand. |
Detroitrise Member Username: Detroitrise
Post Number: 1107 Registered: 09-2007
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 12:41 pm: | |
It's ok, I will just be toning out all negativity when it comes to these snowfall amounts and Winter Storm conditions. |
Pffft Member Username: Pffft
Post Number: 1425 Registered: 12-2003
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 12:55 pm: | |
Agreed on the ridiculous hysteria over snowfall...just think of our parents, grandparents and older driving the snowy streets of Detroit in the cars of yesteryear ...scary. Especially when they outlawed chains on tires! But I have to say people overestimate what AWD and 4WD, or a massive SUV will do for them in the snow. Sure you can tear past my small AWD vehicle and blast snow all over my windshield, but it takes longer for those guys to stop, and 4WD or AWD does not help you in a skid. Plus they're top heavy and it's real easy to go into a skid and tip. The younger SUV drivers just don't get this... |
Mackinaw Member Username: Mackinaw
Post Number: 4161 Registered: 02-2005
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 12:56 pm: | |
Totally right. You will have a lot more traction and be a lot better off, but it doesn't give you permission to speed. When you're trying to brake and you start slipping, the 4wd doesn't help too much. |
Chitaku Member Username: Chitaku
Post Number: 1737 Registered: 03-2006
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 1:08 pm: | |
keep in mind the news sensationalizes the hell out of these storms to create fear, so folks stay tuned to the news |
Detroitrise Member Username: Detroitrise
Post Number: 1108 Registered: 09-2007
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 1:11 pm: | |
"AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1254 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007 .UPDATE... ...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW HAVE WRITTEN A QUICK UPDATED DISCUSSION TO HIGHLIGHT ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IN THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE /WSWDTX/. TWO MAIN ALTERATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE. THE FIRST WAS TO UPGRADE/ISSUE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL OF THE TRI CITIES. THE SECOND WAS TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE EXPECTED TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM. THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE 8 TO 12 INCHES. FOR THE THUMB...10 TO 14 INCHES IS ANTICIPATED BY TOMORROW NIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE IS LIKELY AS THE SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS IMPRESSIVE. IN ADDITION...AN EXPECTED FGEN/DEFORMATION BAND (WITH INCREASED SNOWFALL RATES) FACILITATES THE NEED FOR LOCALLY HIGHER WORDING AWAY FROM LAKE HURON AS WELL. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TIMING. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL INSIGHT FOR THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON IS PROVIDED IN THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW AND A SPS (WILL ALSO BE ISSUED SHORTLY)." MMMM HMMMM! |
Psychgrad Member Username: Psychgrad
Post Number: 13 Registered: 12-2004
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 1:18 pm: | |
Storms like this do crack me up though when I see people panic buying supplies. Ran out to the store today mostly to people watch and it was packed. Everyone had that panicked "must buy anything to eat and a shovel" look in their eyes since they didn't prepare ahead at all. Bring on the snow - been too long since we had a real storm. |
Jimaz Member Username: Jimaz
Post Number: 4046 Registered: 12-2005
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 1:27 pm: | |
Interesting that those weather bulletins are still printed in caps. I understand that older teletypes had no lowercase letters but you'd think they'd keep up with the times. Oh well. This might be a good place to ask which weather web sites people prefer. http://www.intellicast.com/ seems pretty good. Here's their satellite loop and radar loop. Any better ones available? |
Detroitrise Member Username: Detroitrise
Post Number: 1109 Registered: 09-2007
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 1:30 pm: | |
Uh yeah, the National Weather Service is the one and only accurate weather website. All the others are wanna-be crack pots. |
Detroitrise Member Username: Detroitrise
Post Number: 1110 Registered: 09-2007
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 1:55 pm: | |
Attention all Doubting Toms: Someone just told me that at the top of the hour, the TWC zoomed into Detroit and the meteorologist said we would get the brunt of this storm with up to 15 inches of snow possible. Just something to add on to the thread. |
Detroitrise Member Username: Detroitrise
Post Number: 1111 Registered: 09-2007
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 3:13 pm: | |
Darn it, you all are jynxing up the snow. The models are now starting to trend too far west with the low. That could be more Ice/Snow for the city of detroit if this happens more! |
Eriedearie Member Username: Eriedearie
Post Number: 387 Registered: 08-2007
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 3:37 pm: | |
It has started out here in the sticks along Lake Erie. Ground is now covered. I've got plenty to keep me busy indoors. So, let it snow, let it snow, let it snow! Update at 11! |
Ray1936 Member Username: Ray1936
Post Number: 2418 Registered: 01-2005
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 3:47 pm: | |
I prefer the National Weather Service doppler. http://radar.weather.gov/radar .php?rid=dtx&product=N0R&overl ay=11101111&loop=no |
Detroitrise Member Username: Detroitrise
Post Number: 1112 Registered: 09-2007
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 4:02 pm: | |
From NWS GRR: 000 FXUS63 KGRR 152043 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 340 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007 LATEST UPDATE...ALL BUT AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS...(340 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007) LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR MEMPHIS WILL TRACK TO NEAR TOLEDO ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS STORM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM... THE TIMING OF THE HEAVY SNOW AND POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM. DECIDED TO START THE WARNING EARLIER. THE MAIN REASON IS THAT THE DRY SLOT IS NOT EVOLVING AS FORECAST...WITH SOME HEAVY SNOW IN EASTERN IA AT 18Z. RADAR TRENDS ACROSS EASTERN MO THROUGH IL SHOW INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. VPZ WAS DOWN TO A HALF MILE AT 19Z. THE SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR MEM AT 19Z AND DEEPER THAN ANY MODEL. THIS LOW SHOULD TRACK TO NEAR TOL...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR SW LOWER MI TO SEE A WIDESPREAD WARNING EVENT. THE 18Z RUC AND NAM SUPPORT THIS TRACK. STRONGER MID LEVEL FGEN SUPPORTS THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BIV TO MOP. LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF A FOOT COULD FALL. WILL HOLD OFF ON A BLIZZARD WARNING. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE RECENT RUC RUN SUGGESTS GUSTS WILL STAY UNDER BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA. GIVEN THAT THE SNOW WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED. EAST WEST ROADS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY HARD HIT...PERHAPS IMPASSABLE IN PLACES. So it's not a Blizzard YET. |
Elviswithteeth Member Username: Elviswithteeth
Post Number: 46 Registered: 03-2007
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 4:03 pm: | |
No snow here in SUNNY Nevada! Have fun! |
Mackinaw Member Username: Mackinaw
Post Number: 4162 Registered: 02-2005
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 4:41 pm: | |
Well the Grand Rapids NWS covers the area west of Jackson and Lansing, Detroitrise. Let's keep it close to home. It's still useful to look at the neighboring forecasts...the NE Indiana forecasts (which also cover Hillsdale) have predicted as much as 15" in their southern MI forecast areas, but in eastern Indiana they have mentioned sleet and freezing rain. All of their forecasts now have mentions of thundersnow. Detroit is far enough north and will retain a NE wind flow, so I doubt we'll see a changeover. The system may be strong enough to give us thunder and lightning. Let's wait for the latest local discussion. I noticed that they've upped the expected snowfall rates already. For 2-4 tonight and 3-7 tomorrow to 3-7 tonight and 4-8 tomorrow for Wayne and Washtenaw Counties. This storm is happening at a low-impact time, though, in terms of business impact, commuting, etc. That is the good news. Everyone take it all in late tonight or tomorrow (just not on the road, hopefully). This could be something that's not exactly a once/year thing (rarer than that). |
Hans57 Member Username: Hans57
Post Number: 251 Registered: 05-2006
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 4:43 pm: | |
Yeah, but your're in Nevada. |
Detroitrise Member Username: Detroitrise
Post Number: 1113 Registered: 09-2007
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 4:44 pm: | |
What are you talking about Mackinaw???? The branches do collaborate with each other, and DTX has been known to be very conservative with thier advisories. Now, here's NWS CLE: 000 FXUS61 KCLE 152119 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 419 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion --STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OHIO BY SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN A STORM DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --DEEPENING LOW STILL FORECAST TO MOVE TO CENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z SUNDAY...SOME PLACE BETWEEN NAM POSITION OF FDY AND GFS ZZV LOCATION. FURTHER WESTWARD TRACK OF NAM WOULD LIKELY SEE MORE OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA CHANGE OVER TO PREDOMINATELY RAIN. EVEN WITH GFS SOUTHERN PORTION FORECAST AREA IN OHIO LIKELY TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY RAIN WITH MIXED RAIN NOSING UP CLOSE TO THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE COUNTIES IN CLEVELAND AREA...WHILE EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA STAY PREDOMINATELY SNOW OR SNOW SLEET. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORMS WARN AS IS THOUGH AREA FROM MT VERNON...CAK AND YNG WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN BUT BESIDES THE SNOW INTO EARLY EVENING THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE FREEZING RAIN AND THEREFORE RELUCTANT TO DROP BACK TO ADVISORY. SNOWFALL STILL CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES NORTHWEST AND 2 TO 4 ELSEWHERE.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --WILL SEE QUICK CHANGE OVER OF THE MIXED PRECIP TO SNOW SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST GETTING WRAPPED UP IN THE EAST COAST LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY. MENTIONING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE EXTREME NORTH DEVELOPING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BLIZZARD WARNING COULD STILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR FALL. PLENTY OF WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WITH THE LOW FOR SUNDAY. THE 700 MB LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THEY WILL GET THE HEAVIEST SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM CLEVELAND EAST BECAUSE OF ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ERIE ADDED IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN MONDAY SO THAT WILL DECREASE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW QUITE A BIT AS THE DAY GOES ON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...SOME LAKE EFFECT COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING EAST OF CLE.-- End Changed Discussion -- We're basically in a donut hole now of precip, but it should blow up like the atom bomb on Japan after sunset and especially towards midnight. |
Detroitrise Member Username: Detroitrise
Post Number: 1114 Registered: 09-2007
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 4:48 pm: | |
000 FXUS63 KDTX 152130 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 430 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007 .SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AGREES NICELY WITH THE 12Z SUITE DEPICTION OF A SOON TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL TILT TO THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH BISECTING THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO EXEMPLIFYING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF WHICH SIGNALS THE ONGOING...STRENGTHENING CYCLOGENESIS. CURRENTLY...A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR THE STATES OF ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI . ALL INGREDIENTS AND FORCING MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION ARE STILL PERTINENT (NO MAIN CHANGES TO FORCING) AND WILL MAINLY DEAL WITH THE ONSET/CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THIS DISCUSSION. UNTIL 00Z...EXPECT THE LULL TO CONTINUE IN REGARDS TO THE SNOW ACTIVITY (EVERYONE WILL SEE A TRACE TO NOTHING/WHILE THE OHIO BORDER MAY SEE UP TO A HALF INCH. LATEST PLAN VIEWS OF RH GUIDANCE SHOW DRY AIR ALOFT INITIALLY WORKING INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AND STRINGING/FILLING WITH TIME. ONE HAS TO TRAVEL INTO OHIO TO INDIANA A SHORT DISTANCE TO SEE REPORTS OF MORE ROBUST SNOW. THIS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 00Z AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BETWEEN 00-06Z...UP TO AN INCH OR 2 MAY FALL SOUTH OF M59. AN INCH OR LESS NORTH OF M59. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING LED OFF WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW JUST A TOUCH FURTHER WEST TO ACTUALLY SLICING BETWEEN TOLEDO AND CLEVELAND. THE GFS FOLLOWED A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY AS WELL DEPICTING THE SURFACE LOW MAKING INROADS TO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS LATEST NAM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES THE CLIMATOLOGICAL SIGNIFICANT LOW TRACK (ARKANSAS TO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO) FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THE ECMWF CAME IN THIS AFTERNOON IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT TO THE GFS. INITIALLY THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING MENTION TO SOME POSSIBLE MIX MENTION FOR MONROE COUNTY OVERNIGHT AS POWERFUL LOW WILL TRY TO WRAP WARM AIR IN. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRECIPITATION RATES EXPECTED AND THE GFS/ECMWF CAMP TUGGING OUR EXPECTED LOW TRACK OFF THE BORDER HAVE LEFT IT OUT. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS THREAT THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. THE HEAVIEST TIME PERIOD FOR SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WILL BE FROM THE APPROXIMATELY 4 AM TONIGHT THROUGH 4 AM TOMORROW. DEEP LAYER FGEN AND OMEGA WILL SLIDE NORTH INTO THE STATE BRINGING INCREASED RATES. EXAMINATION OF SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TOMORROW AFTER DAYBREAK AS LAPSE RATES ALOFT REALLY STEEPEN WITH 500MB CIRCULATION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT A BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL SETUP ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TOMORROW. THAT HAS FORCED THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ADDED IN THE PRIOR WSW. THE CREW TONIGHT CAN EXAMINE THE POTENTIAL/LIKELIHOOD OF ANY PERSISTENT MESOSCALE BANDING TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY. THE OTHER MAJOR PLAYER IN THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS. AS THE SYSTEM WINDS UP AND EJECTS EASTWARD TOMORROW....WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN...GUSTS OF AROUND 30MPH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WITH COMBINATION OF HEAVY AND BLOWING SNOW. IT IS APPEARING LIKELY THE THUMB REGION WILL REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER...WILL HOLD OFF A TOUCH LONGER SO LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CAN BE EXAMINED THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND TO PRESERVE THE SHORT-FUSED IMPACT OF HEIGHTENED AWARENESS. SUMMARY OF CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE MOVED THE START TIME OF THE WARNINGS TO 4PM/THIS ISSUANCE. AGAIN...SHOULD BE NOTED THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...LATER YET TO THE NORTH. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...MOST EVERYONE 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND 10 TO 14 INCHES FOR THE THUMB WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS |
Mackinaw Member Username: Mackinaw
Post Number: 4163 Registered: 02-2005
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 4:49 pm: | |
I was just imploring you to wait for this: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/produc t.php?site=NWS&issuedby=DTX&pr oduct=AFD&format=CI&version=1& glossary=1 Chill yo! I didn't say they didn't collaborate, but it often takes time for that process to occur. Their forecast is on track, they say. Snow finally overspreads the area south of M59 this evening, and then blows up like you've said. Bands of heavy snow will linger over SE Michigan from 4am-4pm. If rates are any higher than expected over that duration, we'll have a real treat. |
Mackinaw Member Username: Mackinaw
Post Number: 4164 Registered: 02-2005
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 4:50 pm: | |
Beat me...good coverage drise. Now I just have to decide whether I can get downtown and back tonight w/o too much trouble. |
Detroitrise Member Username: Detroitrise
Post Number: 1115 Registered: 09-2007
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 4:56 pm: | |
Actually, I was already waiting on their discussion. Anyway, I was just imploring you guys to not keep your hopes up for a Blizzard Warning. The forecast Wind and Snow is only bordering the criteria for a Blizzard. That does not mean that near-blizzard conditions won't occur though. |
Mackinaw Member Username: Mackinaw
Post Number: 4165 Registered: 02-2005
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 5:00 pm: | |
Question about the time scale they use...is 06z midnight? |
Clark1mt Member Username: Clark1mt
Post Number: 111 Registered: 06-2005
| Posted on Saturday, December 15, 2007 - 5:03 pm: | |
6z is 1 am EST |