 
Spartacus
Member
Username: Spartacus
Post Number: 278
Registered: 07-2005
| | Posted on Tuesday, January 15, 2008 - 5:09 pm: |    |
"If the NAIAS leaves, the regional auto show in Detroit will rack up less (but not that much less) revenue and economic impact."
If the auto show just becomes another regional show then it will have FAR less economic impact. It wouldn't even be close. Do you think that they spend 200,000,000 designing and building the exhibits in Chicago? Do you think that they employ 1,000 for four months setting the thing up in LA? Do you think 6,700 journalists go to the Miami auto show? Do you think anyone from Columbus Ohio has ever driven to the St. Louis auto show? Well, I'm pretty sure the answer to all of the above is NO!
"Besides, the economic impact figure is a lot of "hand-waving" BS anyway"
Okay, so they're making this number up. What do you suppose the number truly is? If it's even close to 500,000,000 then I'm not sure it matters.
"The economic impact from a smaller (or similar sized) show would be much the same."
See comments above. Have you ever read any credible information that would lead you to believe this is the case.
"As long as Ford and GM exist, the NAIAS will be in Detroit."
Absolutely not true. The world's major auto companies spend resources in Detroit and unveil new cars in Detroit because the world's automotive journalists come here. The worlds automotive journalists come here because this is where the unveilings are and news gets made here. There are many cities that would love to steal this show from Detroit. They haven't exactly hidden their intentions to steal it. Once you lose that critical mass, it's just another regional show. I'm not an auto show expert, but I believe that until relatively recently (20 years ago) it was a fairly regional show.
"And if and when they are gone, few in Detroit will care and far fewer another decade into the future will much remember."
Well, let's just throw our hands up and give up. Ford and GM are going to die and the sky is falling. |
D_mcc
Member
Username: D_mcc
Post Number: 108
Registered: 12-2007
| | Posted on Tuesday, January 15, 2008 - 5:16 pm: | |
Amen Spartacus...
Ficano and the other County Commissioners are shooting Detroit and Southeastern Michigan in the temple with this. We need to act now! |
Livernoisyard
Member
Username: Livernoisyard
Post Number: 4859
Registered: 10-2004
| | Posted on Tuesday, January 15, 2008 - 5:46 pm: | |
BS. The questionable figures spewed out for economic impact are probably inflated beyond reason by the proponents for Cobo expansion. In addition, those so-called impacts always are estimated using a multiplier of some sort. I'd bet that whatever multiplier they use for those figures is very (and unrealistically) high.
Patterson probably doesn't buy into that level for economic impact, either. Detroit is broke, so it needs both Wayne and Oakland Counties for any Cobo expansion, and probably even another institution going broke itself--the state of Michigan. If the money were there and if the real economic impact was in fact as they stated, then why doesn't Cobo be expanded? Probably because not everybody is so easily duped. |
Gistok
Member
Username: Gistok
Post Number: 6145
Registered: 08-2004
| | Posted on Tuesday, January 15, 2008 - 6:16 pm: | |
The economic impact was done by David Littmann, Chief Economist for Comerica Bank.
With him not having "any agenda"... it seems hard to believe that he'd be trying to dupe anyone... |
Livernoisyard
Member
Username: Livernoisyard
Post Number: 4860
Registered: 10-2004
| | Posted on Tuesday, January 15, 2008 - 6:32 pm: | |
Once upon a time, Gistok stated:quote:The economic impact was done by David Littmann, Chief Economist for Comerica Bank.
I thought that Dana Johnson was and is the chief economist for Comerica Bank. David Littmann retired thirty-six months ago at Comerica, although he's still involved with the Mackinac Center for Public Policy.
Besides, when ten economists are polled on anything, there's always at least eleven differing conclusions because at least one is schizophrenic. |
Gistok
Member
Username: Gistok
Post Number: 6147
Registered: 08-2004
| | Posted on Tuesday, January 15, 2008 - 8:24 pm: | |
Sounds like forumers... one is always doom and gloom...
David Littmann's comments were made when he was the Chief Economist a few years back. And yes that was 3 years ago... but your "36 months" timeframe makes it seem much longer... funny that!
(Message edited by Gistok on January 15, 2008) |
Livernoisyard
Member
Username: Livernoisyard
Post Number: 4861
Registered: 10-2004
| | Posted on Tuesday, January 15, 2008 - 9:04 pm: | |
Let's see...
Three years ago (thirty-six months to some), Delphi (once a major component of GM) hadn't yet filed for bankruptcy. And several other Detroit-based Tiers, likewise, didn't yet file for bankruptcy either. Visteon was going to move downtown, etc., etc., etc., ...
Private project after project in the CBD during the past twelve months (1 year--Gerhard probably likes that smaller number...) either has failed or hasn't thrown in the towel yet. Talk them up too, while you're at it. What some deem gloom and doom is considered as describing and chronicling the economic facts of life to those dreamers who haven't caught on.
Gistok (and others so inclined): Wake up! The 1950s ended nearly a half century ago. Asia and Europe have recovered from WWII and moved on. But, they apparently recovered much too well. |
401don
Member
Username: 401don
Post Number: 212
Registered: 11-2007
| | Posted on Tuesday, January 15, 2008 - 10:47 pm: | |
Except for the auto show, there's virtually no conventions using Cobo in the Winter months.
Maybe for the rest of the year we could just loan everybody an umbrella? Otherwise, we'll definitely need a walkway for the new Shelby. That's gotta be almost 50 feet away from Cobo. |
Gistok
Member
Username: Gistok
Post Number: 6150
Registered: 08-2004
| | Posted on Tuesday, January 15, 2008 - 11:06 pm: | |
Funny that LY... I must have missed the Visteon and Delphi displays at the auto show...
When David Littmann made his predictions about 6 years ago about the auto show stats... I don't think he was using 2nd tier supplier balance sheets as criteria for auto show economic impact.
Mr. Littmann probably used criteria such as hotel room stays, restaurant receipts, transportation costs (Taxis & Limo's) etc.
Granted the attendance has dropped off by 20,000 or so, but the total show impact has not dropped that much. |
Eric
Member
Username: Eric
Post Number: 1085
Registered: 11-2004
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 16, 2008 - 12:48 am: | |
How does the state plan on coming up with the $150 million? |
Novine
Member
Username: Novine
Post Number: 344
Registered: 07-2007
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 16, 2008 - 3:29 am: | |
Why does the Rock Financial Center need a tax-free zone? They already have a tax abatement from the city and the city, county and state paid for all of the road improvements in the area. How many corporate handouts need to be shoveled their way? Sounds like political pandering to get votes from Oakland County Republicans, not a policy that makes any sense. |
Spartacus
Member
Username: Spartacus
Post Number: 279
Registered: 07-2005
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 16, 2008 - 9:55 am: | |
The most recent economic study was released this month by David Sowerby. Maybe you want to discount his numbers because he was hired by the Detroit Auto Dealers Association, but I think even a casual observer understands that the economic impact of the auto show is immense.
"In addition, those so-called impacts always are estimated using a multiplier of some sort. I'd bet that whatever multiplier they use for those figures is very (and unrealistically) high."
Of course he uses a multiplier, why wouldn't he? You basically know nothing about the specifics of the study, but you somehow know that it is wrong.
"Patterson probably doesn't buy into that level for economic impact, either."
Can you provide any evidence of this? I'm sure Patterson questions how much of the economic impact makes its way into Oakland County. I think that he'd be laughed at if he suggested the Auto Show didn't provide a significant economic benefit to the metropolitan area (Detroit in particular). This is where a lot of forumers philosophically disagree with Patterson. It's not clear that he would agree to anything that would cost his constituency (in this case extending hotel and liquor taxes seven years), for the benefit of Wayne County/Detroit (no matter how great the benefit). I'm sure he'd argue that he is just doing his job by protecting Oakland County. Others would argue that it is precisely this sort of balkanized attitude that has hamstrung this region. Oakland County, in the long run, is better off with a strong Detroit.
LY, your argument seems to be: 1) that no economic study on anything can be trusted; 2) this study in particular is wrought with errors; 3)the economic impact of the auto show is not very great, or at least does not merit spending a nickel more on COBO; 4) the economic impact will not be significantly reduced if COBO becomes a regional show; and 5) you're right about all of the above because if you weren't then it would have been built already.
Anyone else dizzy from that circular logic? |
Johnlodge
Member
Username: Johnlodge
Post Number: 4634
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 16, 2008 - 10:36 am: | |
So dizzy I fell down and gave up.
Anyway, I'd like to hear some other opinions on the matter. LY's need no further clarification. |
Gistok
Member
Username: Gistok
Post Number: 6153
Registered: 08-2004
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 16, 2008 - 12:32 pm: | |
... and my head's still spinning... |
Craggy
Member
Username: Craggy
Post Number: 293
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 16, 2008 - 1:51 pm: | |
Robert Ficano will appear on "Detroit Today" tomorrow to talk about this in greater detail. |
Miketoronto
Member
Username: Miketoronto
Post Number: 769
Registered: 07-2004
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 16, 2008 - 2:01 pm: | |
Is COBO a much loved convention building? Would people scream if it was knocked down?
Because personally I think COBO and the Joe Louis should be knocked down, and a better intergrated convention centre be built, that actually respects the waterfront and cityscape. |
Gistok
Member
Username: Gistok
Post Number: 6157
Registered: 08-2004
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 16, 2008 - 2:33 pm: | |
Mike, the problems is that you can't tear down the existing convention center to build a new one in its' place. Where will all the booked conventions go?
Plus they're not done paying for the last expansion quite yet. |
Livernoisyard
Member
Username: Livernoisyard
Post Number: 4862
Registered: 10-2004
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 16, 2008 - 2:42 pm: | |
quote:Granted the attendance has dropped off by 20,000 or so, but the total show impact has not dropped that much.
Lousy math skills will not get one very far...
Let's do the fourth-grade reckoning, class. And Gerhard, pay close attention this time and put away those toys:
Taking the attendance figure from 2003--810,699 and subtract last year's tally--705,226 leaves an attendance drop over the past four auto shows of 105,473--not 20,000 or so. Unless 85,473 qualifies as so...
There must have been a short in Gistok's calculator! Or in his mental faculties.
P.S.: We needn't even take into consideration the drop of prestige among foreign automakers for the Detroit NAIAS now or in the future.
(Message edited by LivernoisYard on January 16, 2008) |
Johnlodge
Member
Username: Johnlodge
Post Number: 4642
Registered: 10-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 16, 2008 - 2:52 pm: | |
A drop since the RECORD ALL TIME HIGHEST ATTENDANCE in 2003. In 1997, the attendance was 725,796.
In 1995, the attendance was 693,569
In 1990, the attendance was 658,375.
Are you sure you have established a trustworthy trend, LY?
(Message edited by johnlodge on January 16, 2008) |
Gistok
Member
Username: Gistok
Post Number: 6159
Registered: 08-2004
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 16, 2008 - 3:09 pm: | |
John, just remember with LY (on nearly all his posts on other threads)... the glass is always half empty...
LY's favorite law is "Barker's Law"... which states "Murphy was an optimist".  |
Livernoisyard
Member
Username: Livernoisyard
Post Number: 4863
Registered: 10-2004
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 16, 2008 - 3:12 pm: | |
The Internet is supplanting conventions and auto shows.
Consider just a few of the economic and other impacts of the Internet. (There are others.):
(1) No expensive, energy-consuming plane flights for those using air travel.
(2) Ditto for those driving here from more local locations and no parking expenses and hassles.
(3) A visit to a local/regional dealership has the bonus of test rides. Not very likely to happen at Cobo.
(4) From an exhibitor's perspective: They don't have to overpay for all that jacking and jerking around by the cabal of crooks, cronies, and unions that feed off of Cobo. One reference: AFL-CIO Says: Union Rules Hurt Us
The trend is obvious during the 2000s. The US automakers are slimming down to 1/2 to 1/3 their former sizes, and the 12,000 US Tiers during the late 1990s had already dropped to around 8000 by 2004. And a further drop of US Tiers to fewer than 4000 by the end of this decade was predicted back in 2004.The remaining US Tiers will be manufacturing components or providing services more for Honda and Toyota, among others, than the US automakers, as now.
My question for the DY pipe dreamers in this build Cobo and they will come regard is, "What are they smoking in their pipes?"
(Message edited by LivernoisYard on January 16, 2008) |
Rb336
Member
Username: Rb336
Post Number: 4548
Registered: 02-2007
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 16, 2008 - 3:13 pm: | |
still the largest media coverage for ANY auto show -- how many press credentials were issued this year?
more and more celebs from out of town are popping in to it too. |
Gistok
Member
Username: Gistok
Post Number: 6160
Registered: 08-2004
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 16, 2008 - 3:36 pm: | |
OK LY... let's not make this personal... BUT...
I very highly doubt that the internet is replacing the auto shows... Did TV and Video/DVD rentals replace going to a theatre or a broadway show? No, but I'll agree that they did put a dent into it.
1) Besides celebs and the media, few people in metro Detroit fly to a show anyway.
2) I think the biggest hassle is the unpredictable nature of weather. Other than that, folks will go thru the "hassle" of driving downtown to gamble and go to concerts, shows, opera, symphony, etc. Why not the Auto Show?
3) The Auto Show... "1 stop shopping"... you can see and compare all the brands without having to drive all over the metro area to check out the different USA and foreign auto dealers.
4) This one I agree with you on. But they're ponying up the money, and it doesn't affect attendance. |
Spartacus
Member
Username: Spartacus
Post Number: 280
Registered: 07-2005
| | Posted on Wednesday, January 16, 2008 - 4:53 pm: | |
"My question for the DY pipe dreamers in this build Cobo and they will come regard is, 'What are they smoking in their pipes?'"
They are already here, the idea is to build it to keep them here.
If auto shows are dying I wonder why NY, LA and Chicago are making such an effort to get a piece of ours? I'm not sure if you read any of my previous posts (or simply chose to ignore them), but it isn't really about someone from Livonia driving down for a couple hours to walk around COBO (although it can't hurt downtown to have people going down there). It is about the thousands of out of town journalists and decision makers that come to town and the money the automakers spend trying to impress them.
You keep changing your argument for not increasing the size of COBO. Is it now a combination of: 1) auto show has no significant economic impact on this area; 2) there will be less suppliers in years to come; 3) Ford and GM are here so the auto show will not diminish in stature; 4) The Big Three will someday soon be 1/3 of their current size; 5) Auto shows will not exist in the future because of the internet 6) the cost of doing business is too high because of the unions (I actually agree with this one); and my favorite 7)people will suddenly figure out that you can't take test drives at COBO and the auto show will cease to exist.
You've really covered all your bases haven't you? |
Leland_palmer
Member
Username: Leland_palmer
Post Number: 436
Registered: 08-2004
| | Posted on Thursday, January 17, 2008 - 1:55 am: | |
LBP rips the latest plan...
http://detnews.com/apps/pbcs.d ll/article?AID=/20080117/METRO /801170408 |
Livernoisyard
Member
Username: Livernoisyard
Post Number: 4870
Registered: 10-2004
| | Posted on Thursday, January 17, 2008 - 2:48 am: | |
Ficano was jabbering nonstop on Paul W. Smith's WJR program, that Smith barely could get a word in. That's typical evasive behavior.
Patterson is apparently on vacation, so don't expect much movement from him for a while, if so. He also was on WJR and was nowhere convinced of Ficano's plan. |
Gistok
Member
Username: Gistok
Post Number: 6163
Registered: 08-2004
| | Posted on Thursday, January 17, 2008 - 1:54 pm: | |
LY, give it up... you take up a position, and then you come up with a bunch of weak points to support that position. And then you keep hammering away at your weak positions by piling more weak arguments for them, making it seem that you're right.
As if 2nd tier auto performance or Ficano's jabbering have anything at all to do with the subject at hand... do keep trying though... some folks may actually buy into your arguments... |
Livernoisyard
Member
Username: Livernoisyard
Post Number: 4872
Registered: 10-2004
| | Posted on Friday, January 18, 2008 - 6:36 am: | |
YAWN! Been there, seen that! so says The Detroit News op ed Friday, January 18, 2008-Daniel Howes: Commentary-Will this plan rescue Cobo?-Latest in a litany of proposals leaves many questions unsolved
quote:Here's another one: The auto show is changing, and it'll change faster if Cobo doesn't get the renovation it so badly needs. Three years ago, Wayne County Executive Bob Ficano says, there were 76 major introductions at the show. This year, there were 58 -- and none of them, with the exception of the Cadillac CTS Coupe Concept, was a total surprise.
The Internet, new kinds of media and media people, efforts by automakers to reach customers outside the heartland are all likely to make Detroit a little less important in the automotive firmament while places like Los Angeles, New York and Miami grow in importance because that's where the customers are.
Patterson decided to stay on vacation and Oakland County was conspicuously absent from Ficano's trial lead-balloon blastoff.
Most of WJR personalities yesterday laid off Ficano in their radio interviews with him--probably due to the timing of the NAIAS. However, there was one notable exception--and one who normally might be expected to toe the mark. Mitch Albom was the only local personality to ask Ficano (and kept asking Ficano when he tried to duck his questions) the right questions. Especially, what happens when all that money is wasted on Cobo and the NAIAS becomes less important or leaves in spite of well over $1/2 billion squandered on Cobo, and Detroit is left with an even bigger white elephant.
Patterson was also interviewed on Albom's show yesterday. He responded to Kilpatrick's and Ficano's quoted remarks that they would go ahead with their Cobo plans without Patterson. Patterson's reply to that was much like Clint Eastwood's "Make my day" remark. Fine with him, he said, and Oakland County wouldn't then have to open its checkbook. |
Spartacus
Member
Username: Spartacus
Post Number: 281
Registered: 07-2005
| | Posted on Friday, January 18, 2008 - 9:34 am: | |
Did you read the whole column? Do you think that Howes, knowing all that he knows, thinks that we should expand COBO? Do you think that Howes thinks its an embarrassment that the local leaders can't work together to make it happen? |
Bob
Member
Username: Bob
Post Number: 1642
Registered: 11-2003
| | Posted on Friday, January 18, 2008 - 9:56 am: | |
The reason why they want to extend the tax-free zone to other convention centers is that to get the votes in the state legislature, to pass it state-wide, you need to appease the people on the west-side (DeVos Place), and need the Oakland County votes (Rock Financial Showplace).
With that said, DeVos Place is a wonderful medium, to small sized convention center, that is connected to the Amway Grand PLaza hotel (owned by the DeVos family through Alitcor). Even in Lansing the Lansing Center is connected to a hotel via a covered walkway. So connecting it to the former Ponchartrain Hotel os not too much of a stretch, BUT, connecting it to the Ren Cen is a waste of money. Besides, as nobody has pointed out yet, the Ren Cen is already connected to Cobo, via the People Mover. Maybe GM might want to pony up some money to connect it, but taking out the walkway to the Ren Cen is smart. Taking out the Riverfront Ballroom to make more exhibit space makes sense. How many events actually use this space anyways. And the city will already have nice ballrooms in the forms of the Fort Shelby, Ren Cen Marriott, BC, and Masonic Temple. |
Lefty2
Member
Username: Lefty2
Post Number: 940
Registered: 07-2007
| | Posted on Friday, January 18, 2008 - 10:31 am: | |
Aren't the taxpayers, who bear the ultimate brunt of the expenses, who should be more careful than anyone to question a huge financial chain to our feet.
I am 100% for it, but at what cost?
I haven't seen the budget breakdown on this plan but at these prices this has graft, corruption and kickbacks written all over it. |
Livernoisyard
Member
Username: Livernoisyard
Post Number: 4873
Registered: 10-2004
| | Posted on Friday, January 18, 2008 - 12:14 pm: | |
quote:Do you think that Howes, knowing all that he knows, thinks that we should expand COBO? Strange! His interview on WJR this morning seemed as if he was unsure. Too much uncertainty. And Macomb County leaders already said that they had no money or desire to help pay for Cobo.
In addition, Patterson said on the Mitch Albom show yesterday that much scheduled maintenance on Cobo was deferred for years instead of being done and paid for. That figure alone was several millions and piling up over the years--showing gross mismanagement of those in charge of Cobo. Patterson said that he and his county weren't interested in repaying for something that should have been done and paid for all along. |
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