Livernoisyard Member Username: Livernoisyard
Post Number: 5948 Registered: 10-2004
| Posted on Monday, April 21, 2008 - 10:11 pm: | |
HP at night is ... different. I've waited for buses there around midnight because the John R late buses don't go any closer to downtown. Try it some time. It's eerier than Capitol Park at night. |
Jgavrile Member Username: Jgavrile
Post Number: 72 Registered: 09-2005
| Posted on Monday, April 21, 2008 - 10:28 pm: | |
Its what made us guys from "The Park" tough while growing up. Highland Park was one of the coolest towns to grow up in the 40's,50's,60's. That town had it all once. |
Professorscott Member Username: Professorscott
Post Number: 1219 Registered: 12-2006
| Posted on Monday, April 21, 2008 - 10:32 pm: | |
I wait for bus transfers at Woodward/Manchester (which is in HP for those who don't know that neighborhood), but I'm home way before midnight these days LY. Wood/Manch at midafternoon doesn't strike me as any more or less safe than anywhere else I catch the bus. |
Livernoisyard Member Username: Livernoisyard
Post Number: 5949 Registered: 10-2004
| Posted on Monday, April 21, 2008 - 10:38 pm: | |
I doubt if many/any suits or IT sorts would wait for transit late at night in HP on a regular basis. |
Professorscott Member Username: Professorscott
Post Number: 1220 Registered: 12-2006
| Posted on Monday, April 21, 2008 - 11:03 pm: | |
Like all such systems anywhere, most riders are on at a.m. and p.m. rush; not a vast majority, but most. That's why (for instance) DDOT is increasing peak-hour frequency on several routes starting in a week or two, and paying for it by thinning out nighttime service on several other routes. Put the coaches where the people are, when they're there. We used to be a three-shift town; nowadays not so much. And the suits for the most part are nine-to-fivers anyhow. The oddest route to me is SMART 465, a rush-hour-only service that brings people from Detroit to Auburn Hills in the a.m. (only!) and back in the p.m. Is reverse-commuting that common around here now? |
Jonnyfive Member Username: Jonnyfive
Post Number: 123 Registered: 03-2007
| Posted on Monday, April 21, 2008 - 11:05 pm: | |
"I doubt if many/any suits or IT sorts would wait for transit late at night in HP on a regular basis." I doubt there would be a need for that since HP isn't exactly overflowing with IT jobs. If the addition of light rail to HP had the effect of luring IT businesses, then the neighborhood would change anyway. Your point is stupid, as usual. |
Jonnyfive Member Username: Jonnyfive
Post Number: 124 Registered: 03-2007
| Posted on Monday, April 21, 2008 - 11:07 pm: | |
Prof Scott, Don't a lot of Detroiters bus in to work at Great Lakes Crossing? |
Professorscott Member Username: Professorscott
Post Number: 1221 Registered: 12-2006
| Posted on Monday, April 21, 2008 - 11:38 pm: | |
Jonny, The 465 is a traditional rush-hour type service, only in reverse. Buses from Detroit to Auburn Hills from like 5 to 8 a.m., and back from 3 to 6 p.m. Not the kind of schedule that would work for shopping-center kinds of jobs. Prof. Scott |
Livernoisyard Member Username: Livernoisyard
Post Number: 5951 Registered: 10-2004
| Posted on Monday, April 21, 2008 - 11:56 pm: | |
I do not understand why those AM/PM rush SMART buses pick up only one way. Do they simply dead-head return empty? Or do they actually take passengers the other way, but they're not on the schedule as doing so? |
Danindc Member Username: Danindc
Post Number: 4164 Registered: 10-2003
| Posted on Monday, April 21, 2008 - 11:58 pm: | |
quote:In addition, all such transit plans are low balled in order to get the boondoggle started. Cost overruns of 50% to over 100% are typical. If any cost overruns occur, the feds will not cough up another red cent. Thus, the unfunded liability could easily increase from $148 million to $334 million for 50% cost overrun to $519 million for a 100% cost overrun. Actually, most rail projects constructed in the past 15 years have come in under budget. I wonder if you and I read the same publications.
quote:And one final point: the city expects that only 16% of its operating cost will be met through the cash box. So, most or all of an annual subsidy of 84% of its annual operating costs will definitely will be paid though various local taxes--GUARANTEED. The City is already paying these operating costs to operate bus service (a more expensive mode) along Woodward. This would actually be an operational cost savings, and with increased fare revenue to boot. It wouldn't surprise me if this number was very conservative. For comparison, DDOT's current fare recovery is somewhere around 12%. Cities with extensive rail systems have farebox recovery ratios of at least 50%. You choose which is preferable.
quote:Woodward would have to be widened starting at Grand Blvd all the way passed the davison Fwy. Woodward already has plenty of lanes. Stop thinking about moving CARS, and start thinking about moving PEOPLE. Two rail tracks can move far more people than 9 lanes of pavement filled with automobiles: 17,500 per hour per lane or 2500, Do the math.
quote:Also, maybe DaninDC can confirm this, but since the Light rail opened up in DC...isn't there something like a 300% increase in growth AROUND the stations? DC doesn't have light rail (yet). But the growth around Metro stations in the seven years I've been here has been tremendous. In the 1980s, downtown DC and the inner city neighborhoods looked much like present-day Detroit. The city had been given up for dead. As auto commute times rose, and gas prices rose, the growth around subway stations in the core is tremendous. In fact, even though the Metro is the nations second-busiest subway (averaging well over 700,000 passengers per day), MWCOG expects 42% ridership growth in the next 22 years. Never mind that real estate values in the urban core here continue to rise during the housing crisis, and that they are still at least double where they were in 1999. There might be a reason for that, free-marketeers.... |
Professorscott Member Username: Professorscott
Post Number: 1222 Registered: 12-2006
| Posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2008 - 12:00 am: | |
LY, my understanding is that when a SMART bus goes on a one-way trip (say, as 465) when he gets to the end of his trip he becomes a different route. They don't do more dead-heading than they have to. The "why" baffles me also. In fact they have one route, 305, which only travels one direction on one trip, and never goes the other way at all. |
Livernoisyard Member Username: Livernoisyard
Post Number: 5952 Registered: 10-2004
| Posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2008 - 12:44 am: | |
quote:Actually, most rail projects constructed in the past 15 years have come in under budget. I wonder if you and I read the same publications. Apparently not... Maybe 20% came in at or under of those listed at the bottom of this post. Some accounts other than this source have listed other overruns, such as some 450% for one project--Ottawa's. Whatever gets built needs to be free of the likes of any lingering McNamara proteges and Kilpatrick stooges so as to have its graft kept to a minimum--and not yet another airport swindle. Rail transit not worth the big financial risk--By Cliff Slater Posted on: Friday, October 26, 2007 COMMENTARY
quote:Our policymakers need to get a firm handle on the financial risks taxpayers will be taking with the City’s rail transit proposal. They need to assure themselves that the City’s transit projections will be met within a reasonable range of error. This is particularly important for Honolulu since, on a per capita basis, the $4.6 billion projected cost would become the most expensive rail line ever built in the U.S, even allowing for inflation and without cost overruns. To make a sensible assessment of the financial risks of the project, policy makers need to review the experiences of other metro areas that have built rail lines. Until recently the only official U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) comparisons of capital cost projections versus actual cost, was the 1990 Pickrell Report. This report showed errors for the eight projects studied as averaging 44 percent. More importantly, they revealed a wide error range from the best, at 11 percent under projection, to the worst, at 83 percent over. Only one of these, the original Pittsburgh light rail line, came in under its projected cost. Last month the USDOT released a new report covering those projects built between 1990 and 2003, which showed that of the 21 projects covered, the best performer, San Jose, was 28 percent under forecast and the worst, Portland, was 72 percent over, for an average of 21 percent over forecast. More important than averages is the distribution of the various error rates. For example, if the resulting costs of the 21 projects were between ± 10 percent of the forecasts it would be a reasonable indication to our policy makers of the likely accuracy of the Honolulu projections. However, that is not the case here. These 21 projects’ costs relative to forecasts errors were evenly distributed over a wide range of 72 percent over to 28 percent under forecasts. If we were to apply that range of error to the $4.6 billion projection, it would result in a spread of $3.3 billion to $7.9 billion. The City Administration will undoubtedly paint this as ridiculously improbable and wildly pessimistic. However, each of these 21 capital cost projections was thought at the time to be reasonable by both the transit agency and its consultant who produced them. Just as our City Transportation Department and its consultants, Parsons Brinckerhoff, also believe their current cost projections are reasonable. In addition, the US DOT Federal Transit Administration’s in-house analysts and outside consultants also examined each of these 21 capital cost projections in great detail and thought them all reasonable. And so here we have innumerable transit planners, engineers and accountants, all well educated and experienced and all believing that, as a the result of their hard work, the cost projections would be, dare we say it, reasonable. And the forecast errors have not improved. Here are the errors of the last three rail lines built: • San Francisco BART Airport Extension, heavy rail, 21 percent overrun. • Minneapolis Hiawatha light rail, 49 percent overrun. • San Juan, Puerto Rico, heavy rail, 113 percent overrun. Again, we must emphasize that the agencies and their consultants, each separately producing the projections, thought each of them reasonable as did the staff and outside consultants at FTA. Upon what can policy and opinion makers rely? The FTA believes that projects that are within ± 20 percent range are reliable. On this basis, Honolulu’s forecast could have nearly a billion dollar cost overrun and still be considered “reliable.” And, in this latest FTA report, nearly half of the project errors exceeded the 20 percent limit. Our policy and opinion makers need to understand how far the projections might be in error, and then consider how, or even if, they can cope with the resulting financial impact. After all, Senator Inouye said recently that if the City had to spend one billion dollars fixing the sewage treatment facility, it would bankrupt us. The rail project could be as much as $8 billion, before accounting for operating losses and bond interest. What would be the financial impact of that? The City’s Alternatives Analysis shows us clearly that traffic congestion, with rail, is going to be far worse than it is today. Can Honolulu taxpayers really afford to risk this many billions on a project that will not reduce traffic congestion? Cliff Slater is a columnist whose footnoted columns can be found at www.cliff slater.com Final costs as percentage of forecast Actual Capital Costs vs. Projected Costs (CPAR) City / Mode / Percent / Risks Portland LRT 172% Jacksonville AGT 160% San Francisco HR 160% Seattle Trolleys 157% 19% 50-80% over San Jose LRT 148% Los Angeles HR 148% Baltimore LR 142% St. Louis LRT 122% Denver Bus/HOV 120% 24% 20-50% over Denver LRT 119% Pittsburgh Bus/HOV 117% Baltimore HR 113% Dallas LR 111% 19% 10-20% over Atlanta HR 108% Miami AGT 103% Houston Bus/HOV 103% 76% chance of being over Salt Lake City LRT 98% St. Clair Co. LRT 92% 24% ±10 % San Diego LRT 90% Chicago HR 86% San Jose LRT 72% 24% chance of being under 14% 10-30% under Source: FTA's Contractor Performance Assessment Report. September 2007. (Message edited by livernoisyard on April 22, 2008) |
Greatlakes Member Username: Greatlakes
Post Number: 187 Registered: 07-2007
| Posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2008 - 1:37 am: | |
For the one person curious about expanding the People Mover (which is NOT a monorail for the nth time), here was the plan that was reported in the paper a couple of years back: http://drcurryassociates.net/DetroitPeopleMover2.html
I think a combination of light rail and an expanded PM could work with light rail stops/connections to the PM at New Center, Midtown, and Downtown. Less stop and go for the light rail, and total right of way for the PM's many stops in between. They really should just take a look at this map ( http://downtowndetroit.org/ddp/images/annual_report/food_fun_guide.pdf ) and notice where they've highlighted the various points of interests anyway and put the PM along those roads instead of just the zigzag path drawn above. Unfortunately, the only people talking about a PM expansion recently were the Motor City Casino folks last year. |
Burnsie Member Username: Burnsie
Post Number: 1373 Registered: 11-2003
| Posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2008 - 1:56 am: | |
Bragaboutme wrote, "Woodward would have to be widened starting at Grand Blvd all the way passed the davison Fwy." Why? With the same width, it handled two streetcar tracks just fine in 1956 and before, when there were a lot more pedestrians and autos. |
Bearinabox Member Username: Bearinabox
Post Number: 609 Registered: 04-2006
| Posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2008 - 1:59 am: | |
quote:Why? With the same width, it handled two streetcar tracks just fine in 1956 and before, when there were a lot more pedestrians and autos. ...and no I-75. If the congestion gets too terrible on Woodward (and I don't think it will), people will start using Second/Third, Brush/John R., or Hamilton. Or maybe even *gasp* the streetcar! |
Lmichigan Member Username: Lmichigan
Post Number: 5937 Registered: 10-2003
| Posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2008 - 5:04 am: | |
Not sure if this has been asked, but what is the most recent ridership number for the DDOT bus line along Woodward? I know the total average ridership (for weekdays) for the whole system was 133,996 trips per day in 2006. How much of this was on the current Woodward bus line? |
Bragaboutme Member Username: Bragaboutme
Post Number: 195 Registered: 02-2008
| Posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2008 - 7:06 am: | |
Thanks for the info Great lakes, to me that would be a good and safe route for the people mover, and at 200mill. I think it can be done quicker and bring a faster return. The option for a longer system would be best extending up jefferson, or along the river walk could be an option that could connect New Center to Belle Island. |
Defendbrooklyn Member Username: Defendbrooklyn
Post Number: 821 Registered: 11-2005
| Posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2008 - 7:17 am: | |
Sheesh! Man i took a D-yes beatdown with my posts...I never been on the train in DC and have to base my experience from riding trains in nyc. Nyc was a bit different. Harlem had a bad rep. and i know people avoided it at all costs. Also, east new york was another zone people wanted nothing to do with...Cabs were used to avoid hanging around on the platforms... From living in Brooklyn and working in Harlem i road the train every day. I was messed with 2 times in 3 years. Both happen to be i Harlem. Nothing happened but it is what it is. If the train is built i will be on it. |
Jsmyers Member Username: Jsmyers
Post Number: 1995 Registered: 12-2003
| Posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2008 - 9:54 am: | |
quote:if it is anything like the Hiawatha Line in Minnesota, this is going to be great. That is exactly what they are proposing. The "city's technical review" that some seem to be ignorant about is the same company that did a lot of their work: http://www.urscorp.com/URS_Div ision/projectsDetail.php?servi ce=95§ion=0602&project=339 |
Gravitymachine Member Username: Gravitymachine
Post Number: 2047 Registered: 05-2005
| Posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2008 - 10:01 am: | |
this will be almost exactly like buffalo's light rail system, save for the fact that a good portion of it runs under main street http://www.nfta.com/metro/rout e_rail.asp http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B uffalo_Metro_Rail |
Danny Member Username: Danny
Post Number: 7302 Registered: 02-2004
| Posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2008 - 10:05 am: | |
Light rail transit is great ideal to limit the problems of people depending of gas guzzling cars and rising gas prices and lower pollution. But in order to have a light transit system a reality. Our city county and state leaders must lobby M-DOT, legislature, private companies and other bureaucratic folks in which its going to take years to get this proposal through. |
Transitrider Member Username: Transitrider
Post Number: 56 Registered: 01-2007
| Posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2008 - 10:19 am: | |
Lmich: about 11,000 is the average daily ridership on the DDOT 53 Woodward. This is the same number used by DTOGS to estimate the LRT. However, this number is still quite conservative, as it does not include other routes in the corridor (16, 23, 31, SMART 400s, 61x). Some of these routes could transfer to LR at Fairgrounds, and with 8 minutes headways (comparable to the EL or most subways), the transfer would be at most a short wait, and the time savings for the rest of the trip would make up for the difference (signal prioritization at traffic lights, major stops at about every mile.) Brag: check out the other DTOGS thread for more background and discussion, as well as DTOGS.com. Nothing novelty about this, and yes, all alternatives (routes, modes/technologies, corridors, options) were put to votes at a series of public info sessions, and more importantly cost-benefit analysis. LRT on Woodward came in first, and here we are. |
Livernoisyard Member Username: Livernoisyard
Post Number: 5956 Registered: 10-2004
| Posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2008 - 10:23 am: | |
JS: What proved expertise does the "city's technical review" have about the proposed Detroit's LRT system aiding and abetting the creation of 12,000 jobs? That claim doesn't make sense. How many jobs did the PM ever create? Probably none, I betcha except for those very few running it. Has the "city's technical review" ever make any similar job-creation boasts before? If so, how did those turn out? And if it doesn't have any track record in those employment and jobs areas, why should anybody simply accept that wild claim without even the slightest hint of any proof or common sense, considering that Detroit is shedding both people and jobs, big time--and those demographics haven't bottomed yet... It's seems as if the local newspapers weren't asking any sensible questions either and simply printed whatever the city gave them (Was this a "wag the dog" from Kilpatrick?) and stated that some nobody somewhere whom they "interviewed" wanted a train... |
El_jimbo Member Username: El_jimbo
Post Number: 642 Registered: 12-2006
| Posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2008 - 10:27 am: | |
LY, Clearly you ignored my post covering the 12,000 jobs issue. There are well documented means of calculating the economic impacts of transportation investment. I'm sure the technical review followed these standards. |
Kid_dynamite Member Username: Kid_dynamite
Post Number: 515 Registered: 06-2007
| Posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2008 - 10:30 am: | |
LY, you have such a magnetic personality. I mean it. I think it would be very uplifting to know you personally. |
Rb336 Member Username: Rb336
Post Number: 5856 Registered: 02-2007
| Posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2008 - 10:31 am: | |
LY, would you mind terribly reading things that have been posted and perhaps retaining the information? there have been numerous studies on the subject covering many regions that have developed light rail and virtually every one of them showed an increase in the number of jobs along the route. I know many have been linked to on DYes in recent months. |
Detroitnerd Member Username: Detroitnerd
Post Number: 2206 Registered: 07-2004
| Posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2008 - 10:35 am: | |
LY refuses to be dragged, even kicking and screaming, into 21st century America. You gotta admire his tenacity, though. |
Johnlodge Member Username: Johnlodge
Post Number: 6250 Registered: 10-2003
| Posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2008 - 10:42 am: | |
LY, I just wanted to join in. |
Iheartthed Member Username: Iheartthed
Post Number: 3031 Registered: 04-2006
| Posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2008 - 10:42 am: | |
quote:Sheesh! Man i took a D-yes beatdown with my posts...I never been on the train in DC and have to base my experience from riding trains in nyc. Nyc was a bit different. Harlem had a bad rep. and i know people avoided it at all costs. Also, east new york was another zone people wanted nothing to do with...Cabs were used to avoid hanging around on the platforms... From living in Brooklyn and working in Harlem i road the train every day. I was messed with 2 times in 3 years. Both happen to be i Harlem. Nothing happened but it is what it is. When is the last time you've been to Harlem? Harlem's transformation over the past several years would be case and point about what's going to happen in HP. |
Jsmyers Member Username: Jsmyers
Post Number: 1996 Registered: 12-2003
| Posted on Tuesday, April 22, 2008 - 10:51 am: | |
LY, Stop being uncontrollably fixated by one number you read on one Local TV news report. How many of us even care about this jobs number? We all think this is a good idea because it is a long-lasting piece of infrastructure that will build a better city and region. I wouldn't trust Local 4's ability to tell us anything about job creation, and I wouldn't trust any politician in the citing of these numbers. We shouldn't build any infrastructure (roads, transit, airports, sewers -- any) because of the jobs it "will" create. We should built it because of long-term needs and the way the infrastructure will help future development. Unfortunately some misguided people out there want to hear these job numbers. I'll give you my best guess on what "12,000" means. $371,000,000 is a lot of money and most of it will go to paying people -- construction workers, surveying crews, engineers, etc. (some of them are already getting paid). These are jobs. The fact that these people have jobs and a wage means that they will spend money; the person saying "do you want fries with that" to the construction crew every afternoon now has a job as well. (This is the aforementioned "multiplier.") They may also be estimated the construction and development jobs that will be "created" when new housing and office space is built near the line. They are most certainly counting train operators, transit security, park n ride attendants, janitors, etc. But ignore it all! It doesn't matter. This is a good idea because it helps get people to jobs more quickly and reliably, without cars, improving the ladder out of poverty. It is a good idea because it is the first serious step to spreading out SE Michigan's infrastructure over more land with no more people, making our government less efficient. It is a good idea because new development projects in the city will be decreasingly reliant on insane amounts of parking. It is a good idea because gas prices will keep going up! They will not stop! Gas doubled in the last few years. It will do it again and again from now on. Energy to run this system isn't a big part of the cost, and it is not dependent solely on oil. We either pay now for new infrastructure or we pay forever with a obsolete transportation system. "weren't asking any sensible questions"....that is because the questions have been asked, and answered, over the last couple of years. This "news" is a meaningless ribbon cutting. It is the people at URS saying "we're done." It is also a way to draw attention from the state and federal voters and politicians who are responsible for taking action. |
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