  Tetsua Member Username: Tetsua Post Number: 1589 Registered: 01-2004 |
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs .dll/article?AID=/20080507/NEW S03/80507097 Does she have a chance in Hell of winning? If so I think it would bode well for the city. | ||
Digitalvision Member Username: Digitalvision Post Number: 811 Registered: 11-2003 |
This will be a bloody race, and even bloodier situation if she wins. Big money is going to go against her - but it's the best shot the dems have had. I think she could win, but it will highlight the split between northern and southern oakland county. I don't think she will win, though - LBP is a fierce competitor and has a virtually unlimited warchest. | ||
E_hemingway Member Username: E_hemingway Post Number: 1667 Registered: 11-2004 |
The presidential race will play a big part in this race. If the Dem nominee starts to pull away and the GOP turnout goes down, it could spell big trouble for LBP. Oakland County has gone blue in every election since 2000 if I remember correctly, not to mention Joe Knollenberg was nearly knocked off in 06 by small-time candidate in what should normally be a safe Republican district. We'll see which is more powerful today, incumbency or population change. It will be interesting to say the least. | ||
Daytwa Member Username: Daytwa Post Number: 22 Registered: 10-2007 |
How big a role will her race play, do you think? How far have we come? | ||
Lmichigan Member Username: Lmichigan Post Number: 5998 Registered: 10-2003 |
It will play a definite role. We already see how the likes of Southfield and Oak Park are treated within the county government. If she loses, though, it will be because she's not part of either the Democratic nor Republican machine in the county. She just doesn't seem connected enough, to me, to win, but who knows how much the counties really changed. Further, I'm not very familiar with her, how charasmatic she is, etc...she just seems down the list of the people you'd expect to make great candidates. | ||
E_hemingway Member Username: E_hemingway Post Number: 1668 Registered: 11-2004 |
This depends on what type of Dems will be voting. If there is a sizable number of ticket splitters, it could spell trouble for her. If they're vote for the whole ticket kind, it won't be as big a factor. I have a feeling there won't be much in the way in TV spots dedicated to this, especially when a presidential election and competitive congressional race will suck up so much of the potential air time. That could help her mitigate the race factor because then she becomes more of a name on the ballot than a face on the screen. Plus, if Obama is the nominee she could potentially ride his coattails a little bit, too. | ||
Professorscott Member Username: Professorscott Post Number: 1263 Registered: 12-2006 |
E_H, I need to respectfully disagree with one thing. I don't think National party politics have any effect whatsoever on local politics. This will be interesting to watch though. My impression of LBP, since I was once involved in Oakland County politics very directly, is that he is only interested in Oakland County from about 14 Mile north. Those of us who had tried to manage our communities in "T1N" never felt he gave the least bit of a shit about us. | ||
Kevgoblu Member Username: Kevgoblu Post Number: 101 Registered: 02-2007 |
I imagine LBP doubts Brenda Lawrence is a serious competitor for his job, and will run a clean campaign. But if she seriously challenges him, I'm sure race will rise to the forefront of important issues. If my memory of regional history serves me correctly, didn't LBP really launch his political career by stirring the pot over school bussing in the 70's? | ||
Novine Member Username: Novine Post Number: 506 Registered: 07-2007 |
Right on from the west side of T1N tier. Even in Novi, which should be LBP territory politically, he's given very little attention to things going on here. Good call on the "south of 14 Mile" blindspot. | ||
Novine Member Username: Novine Post Number: 507 Registered: 07-2007 |
"If my memory of regional history serves me correctly, didn't LBP really launch his political career by stirring the pot over school bussing in the 70's?" LBP was the attorney for the anti-busing group NAG in Pontiac. http://info.detnews.com/redesi gn/history/story/historytempla te.cfm?id=161 After being elected the OC Prosecutor, he led several unsuccessful efforts to bring the death penalty back to Michigan (Trivia point - John Engler was one of the key opponents of the death penalty both in the Senate and as Governor). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L ._Brooks_Patterson | ||
Hudkina Member Username: Hudkina Post Number: 187 Registered: 12-2004 |
As Oakland County diversifies it will definitely become easier for Democrats to compete, especially at a time when a Republican President has an approval rating below 30%. Granted, the more "local" an election becomes, the less sway a political party has on a voter's decision. While its good to finally see Patterson get some competition, I have a feeling he'll have little trouble getting re-elected. | ||
1953 Member Username: 1953 Post Number: 1569 Registered: 12-2004 |
What is T1N? | ||
Danny Member Username: Danny Post Number: 7334 Registered: 02-2004 |
YAY! Brenda Lawrence for Oakland County Executive. That would end L.B. Patterson's bigot politics. Lawrence would strengthen ties with Detroit and O.C. suburbs, increase the Cobo Hall expansion plans and build racial harmony with the various O.C. suburban cities. She would win in no time. | ||
Novine Member Username: Novine Post Number: 508 Registered: 07-2007 |
T1N refers to the geographic townships on the south side of the county between 8 Mile and 14 Mile. They are designated Township 1 North (T1N) due to their location one township north of the Baseline. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wi kipedia/commons/a/a3/Plssinfo. gif | ||
Iheartthed Member Username: Iheartthed Post Number: 3079 Registered: 04-2006 |
She doesn't have an ice cubes chance in Hell of unseating Brooks. On the other hand, she would probably have a very good chance if the seat were empty. | ||
Texorama Member Username: Texorama Post Number: 220 Registered: 12-2006 |
I wouldn't count her out. She wasn't favored in her first run in Southfield, and she was defending the plan to build their new public library, which is a big, impressive place but which was an easy target for the former mayor. She gets it done. | ||
El_jimbo Member Username: El_jimbo Post Number: 668 Registered: 12-2006 |
If Obama is the democratic nominee, you will see BIG turnouts from the African-American voters in Pontiac and Southfield. That doesn't bode well for LBP. | ||
Digitalvision Member Username: Digitalvision Post Number: 813 Registered: 11-2003 |
Politics is almost exclusively a money game - the most well funded candidate wins. Not only because of the fact they spend the money but the perception is with most voters, despite the fact that they complain about it, the see the person who can raise the most money as viable and a better leader. I've seen the surveys, it's amazing how people say they want one thing but do another. LBP wins this one - as soon as it heats up, those business owners north of 14 will open their pocketbooks en masse. LBP is LOVED up there, and the last thing anyone there wants is a black executive from Southfield. | ||
Hudkina Member Username: Hudkina Post Number: 188 Registered: 12-2004 |
One thing I find interesting is that Art Myatt ran against Patterson in 2004 and got nearly 20% of the vote. He wasn't a Democrat (he ran on the Green Party platform) and I wouldn't doubt that his campaign was very limited. (He was a college drop out who once worked as a janitor.) The precincts that he won were in Pontiac, Oak Park, and Royal Oak TWP (which I'm assuming are the districts where blacks are the majority). So if nearly 1 in 5 residents of Oakland County voted for this guy (if only in protest of Patterson) just imagine what a more polished campaign could do. This is the picture the guy used on his official campaign web site: http://home.earthlink.net/~alm yatt/awm-2002.jpg (SERIOUSLY!) Keep in mind that Kerry had 50% of the vote in Oakland County. Brenda Lawrence needs to focus on: Southfield The Royal Oak Area Pontiac/Auburn Hills Waterford TWP West Bloomfield TWP Wixom Farmington/Farmington Hills Those areas account for over half of Oakland County's population and are the areas that heavily favored Kerry in 2004. If she can take those areas handily and take even a small snippet from other areas (Troy, Rochester, etc.) she can pull an upset. Hell the fact that she is a woman could easily sway quite a few female voters who otherwise might have voted alongside their conservative husband. (Message edited by hudkina on May 08, 2008) | ||
Iheartthed Member Username: Iheartthed Post Number: 3083 Registered: 04-2006 |
quote: No... 1 in 5 voters (not residents) in the 2004 county exec race voted against Patterson. | ||
Hpgrmln Member Username: Hpgrmln Post Number: 450 Registered: 06-2007 |
Southfield is not well-regarded in much of Oakland County, so she faces an uphill battle just in the fact that she is the city's mayor. Southfields crime rate is one of the worst in Oakland County, if not the #1 worst. Taxes are really high, but property values of homes are lower than those of similar houses in neighboring cities. The schools aren't great.Southfield High is a toilet. A lot of people in O.C think Southfield has been heading downhill for awhile, and that Lawrence is at the wheel of a sinking ship. Many don't want to take the risk of voting for her under the circumstances her own city is in. | ||
Iheartthed Member Username: Iheartthed Post Number: 3086 Registered: 04-2006 |
quote: I highly doubt that Southfield has the worst crime rate in Oakland County. | ||
Novine Member Username: Novine Post Number: 510 Registered: 07-2007 |
Southfield has some of the highest tax rates but isn't that due to some quirk with Proposal A and school taxes that has kept the value of the office buildings artificially low so that the taxes on homeowners has been jacked up to make up the difference? The city tax rate is around 16 mills which is middle of the pack for OC. The real question is whether LBP habit of making outrageous comments will suddenly not be so funny when the target is an African-American woman and not one of the fellow good old boys. | ||
Hpgrmln Member Username: Hpgrmln Post Number: 453 Registered: 06-2007 |
According to an Oakland Press article from a few years ago, Southfield actually had higher numbers than Pontiac in a few crime categories. Per capita, Pontiac probably is the worst, but Southfields is probably in the top 3. http://southfield.areaconnect. com/crime1.htm | ||
Hudkina Member Username: Hudkina Post Number: 190 Registered: 12-2004 |
Iheartted, obviously you know what I meant when I said that... | ||
Mauser765 Member Username: Mauser765 Post Number: 2695 Registered: 01-2004 |
She wont unseat Brooks, but Ive met her several times and shes a real nice lady. You can tell when people actually care. I like Brooks too. | ||
Novine Member Username: Novine Post Number: 511 Registered: 07-2007 |
You mean to say that one of the largest cities in OC in population, that shares a border with Detroit, and has a large concentration of retail stores, might have a higher crime rate than Milford or Birmingham? How can that be? | ||
Ron Member Username: Ron Post Number: 366 Registered: 03-2006 |
I have no clue about OC politics, but wouldn't her election be a wonderful thing for improved regional cooperation? It could actually be a watershed moment for the area. | ||
Mrsjdaniels Member Username: Mrsjdaniels Post Number: 860 Registered: 08-2005 |
this is the one election year where national politics will affect local... if I were still there, I'd run for a democratic seat that was unopposed just because I'd most likely win with a straight ticket. | ||
Crumbled_pavement Member Username: Crumbled_pavement Post Number: 377 Registered: 08-2007 |
Ron, I disagree. I think Brenda Lawrence getting elected OC Executive would spur more urban sprawl. | ||
Hudkina Member Username: Hudkina Post Number: 191 Registered: 12-2004 |
Yes, because everyone will be buying up all of those houses that *aren't* being built in Lapeer County... | ||
Gnome Member Username: Gnome Post Number: 1194 Registered: 08-2007 |
crime stats S-field vs Pontiac S-field vs Detroit S-field vs Warren S-field vs Livonia Sorry, but Southfield doesn't come off so good until you compare it to Detroit or Pontiac. Even then S-field had higher rates of theft and vehicle theft than Pontiac did. Detroit is its own sad story. Do you own comparisons, using their little chart thingy. | ||
Danny Member Username: Danny Post Number: 7336 Registered: 02-2004 |
Great factual data Gnome! I've been noticed that due Warren and Southfield in size and population, violent crime is more in Warren than in Southfield. | ||
Zulu_warrior Member Username: Zulu_warrior Post Number: 3355 Registered: 10-2003 |
********************ZULU ANALYSIS***************** Actually, Ms. Lawerence has more than a fighting chance at this... a big determinant in this may be this race: http://thehill.com/campaign-20 08/peters-to-challenge-knollen berg-2007-08-08.html Gary Peters is challenging Joe Knollenberg for his congressional seat. This race will be one of the closely watched House races...to determine the strength of the Democrats in the Fall. There will be national funds pouring in for this race, and Brenda Lawernce could be a benefactor of it. Conversley, Patterson could be swept out of office if the Oakland County Democrats bounce Knollenberg. This will be one for the Michigan History books... Stay tuned for Zulu updates | ||
Cincinnati_kid Member Username: Cincinnati_kid Post Number: 26 Registered: 07-2006 |
Who is this hater Hpgrmin? I happen to live in Southfield, and it's not as bad as made out to be. I've lived here for 15 years, and haven't had any crime in my neighborhood. Outside of the taxes, it's quite pleasant to live here. So what is this Guy basing this on? Statistics tend to be unreliable sometimes. He sounds like a straight up hater to me. Like Southfield is the "armpit" of Oakland County. Figures when more minorities move into an area, everything "supposedly" declines. Gimme a f--kin break. (Message edited by Cincinnati_Kid on May 11, 2008) | ||
Cmubryan Member Username: Cmubryan Post Number: 573 Registered: 11-2003 |
One major area that Southfield has lost ground in is its school system. In the 60s-80s, it was considered a stellar school district. The same can't be said anymore. | ||
Charlottepaul Member Username: Charlottepaul Post Number: 2488 Registered: 10-2006 |
"Brooks...said downtowns across the county have been rejuvenated with his Main Street Oakland County, an economic development program, that provides training resources and information about county business finance programs." To give L. Brooks credit (although I disagree with much that he stands for), this Main Street program is the only one of its kind in the country and with the trend toward new-urbanism, I was glad to see the county embracing this idea. | ||
Titancub Member Username: Titancub Post Number: 114 Registered: 08-2006 |
Brooks makes smart business and financial decisions on behalf of OC residents. The position is vital to have someone who can do that. I think the position is more of a bi-partisan one where the important factors for the person is their business sense and management ability, rather then their stand on traditional issues that usually are debated in politics (social issues, etc) On the Southfield issue, it seems to have two distinct and contrary things going. Some pockets are redeveloping and getting better, while other pockets are succumbing to crime, poor property values, etc. Its easy to drive around some n'hoods to see this decline -- for sale signs EVERYWHERE, terribly kept houses/yards, etc. | ||
Crawford Member Username: Crawford Post Number: 230 Registered: 10-2006 |
Southfield is in decline. It isn't the Mayor's fault, and it isn't because it's now a black city, but it's unmistakable. The city is aging very poorly. I doubt it will ever be the "hood", but it is not very desirable. The biggest drop-off is in the schools. S-L High School was very good even 15 years ago. It now stinks. | ||
Alan55 Member Username: Alan55 Post Number: 1668 Registered: 09-2005 |
"To give L. Brooks credit (although I disagree with much that he stands for), this Main Street program is the only one of its kind in the country and with the trend toward new-urbanism, I was glad to see the county embracing this idea." - and yet, Patterson has also said, "What's wrong with sprawl? I love sprawl. It means jobs, jobs, jobs." He's also made a similar off-hand comment about traffic congestion in OC. Actually, it only means transfer of jobs, jobs, job from one place to another, and few new ones. Patterson is like the little guy on top of the glacier - he tugs to the left, tugs to the right, and then says, "Look, I'm steering the glacier!" In reality, he doesn't have much effect one way or other. OC is prosperous in spite of Brooks, not because of him. | ||
Hpgrmln Member Username: Hpgrmln Post Number: 457 Registered: 06-2007 |
Cincinnati kid- I've lived in Oakland county my whole life.The point I am making is that people outside of Southfield living in Oakland county are not too fond of the city, so the mayor faces scrutiny just for being the mayor, even though its not really her fault. Crime is a problem at Northland Mall.There are several apartment complexes the police have to respond to almost on a daily basis.As Crawford and Cmubryan have stated, the schools have taken a dive, and people notice that. People in Farmington Hills or Beverly Hills, which border Southfield, do not like it. They dont want it to spread so that their schools decline and crime spreads. Compare the crime rates with those of immediate neighbors Berkley, Beverly Hills, Farmington Hills, and Franklin. Compare the test scores. This has harmed the cities image and can affect the mayors endeavors even if the problems are not her fault. I don't believe they are. But tell that to other voters. |
