  Lilpup Member Username: Lilpup Post Number: 4517 Registered: 06-2004 |
Cramer on BloggingStocks: GM can't thrive with gas at $4 love comment #1 | ||
Iheartthed Member Username: Iheartthed Post Number: 3233 Registered: 04-2006 |
I liked this one: quote: How the hell does this guy think the Hummer came about? | ||
Digitalvision Member Username: Digitalvision Post Number: 895 Registered: 11-2003 |
GM will probably move most of it's production offshore and start turning a profit. GM is cutting it's suppliers and vendors like crazy - doing retroactive cuts back to January for some, demanding they pay money back. They're going back on deals they made to the CAW not two or three weeks ago. Manufacturing is gone in this state. Sucks, sure, we need a manufacturing base, but it's not economically feasible when the option is $18-$50 an hour or $2 an hour. So GM will survive. Just with massive blue-collar and supplier job cuts. Most other regional economies in this country have multiple revenue sources so if one is hurt, you can retrain and change. Problem is here that there is almost nothing other than automotive so the people who DO get retrained end up leaving the state. Of about twelve former auto workers I know who got retrained, 11 are gone to new jobs that pay more than what they did before, but in other parts of the country and non-union. I heard a report that Ford makes less than $100 per unit on standard and small cars. That's a pathetic, unsustainable margin... and I'm going to guess GM isn't too far off. Be prepared for major depression in this region before it gets better - we're not done with the cuts yet, especially at $4 a gallon (soon to be $5 and $6). There is manufacturing investment happening in this country - but not in Michigan. | ||
Lilpup Member Username: Lilpup Post Number: 4518 Registered: 06-2004 |
"especially at $4 a gallon (soon to be $5 and $6)" call me cynical but I expect gas to fall as Bush nears the end of his term, or just after, as it usually does once so many have invested so heavily into alternative energies it's a game the oil companies play in order to keep competition at a manageable level | ||
Cinderpath Member Username: Cinderpath Post Number: 603 Registered: 05-2006 |
Cramer is an idiot- thank God he did not pick their stock, as it is usually the kiss of death. I remember when he told an investor not to sell Bear Stearns a week before they tanked- Cramer is classic for Pump & Dumps- Great Advice! | ||
Johnlodge Member Username: Johnlodge Post Number: 7296 Registered: 10-2003 |
That guy is a heart attack waiting to happen. | ||
Digitalvision Member Username: Digitalvision Post Number: 896 Registered: 11-2003 |
Lilpup, I respectfully disagree. I would agree if not for three reasons: 1) So much of this price increase is due to the fact that our currency is so weak 2) New high-demand players like China are on the scene, and demand is outpacing supply in a way that has never happened before. We're no longer the only major player in the market; put Europe and China together and they roughly equal our demand, and I'm sure will soon exceed it. That wasn't true last major spike. 3) The cost of recovery is getting higher and higher as it's getting harder and harder to find the stuff. | ||
Gambling_man Member Username: Gambling_man Post Number: 1089 Registered: 11-2003 |
$4 a gallon in the US is not sustainable....the oil companies cannot have people running to build plug in hybrids, utilizing solar and nuclear energy in any meaningful way.....although they know that viable energy alternatives are a long way off.....The middle east is sitting on massive quantities of oil....they sure would like to have a market to sell it to..... | ||
Iheartthed Member Username: Iheartthed Post Number: 3235 Registered: 04-2006 |
quote: As much as I would like to see gas go to $6/gallon for selfish reasons... It's not gonna happen. It might touch $5 before summers end, but not $6. Of course, I might eat my words on this too, lol. I think it's becoming clear that oil is being pushed so high because of speculators vs. any actual jumps in demand. It's just appreciating far too fast. Sure, China and India are industrializing at rapid speed, but even China has began to lift it's subsidies on oil in order to reign in on demand. Some economists were saying today that if the government starts to regulate commodities more tightly then oil could fall back to $70-$80 within 30 days. I think that's a bit extreme considering oil didn't really start rapidly appreciating until it was around the $100 mark. So if this truly is a bubble, which I'm coming around to the idea of, I think oil will probably settle around $90-$100. | ||
Lilpup Member Username: Lilpup Post Number: 4519 Registered: 06-2004 |
Long range I agree with that, short range I only agree with #1, but despite that the oil companies will continue to post massive profits, which they will at some point briefly sacrifice in order to wipe out a lot of alternative fuel investors. | ||
Fastcarsfreedom Member Username: Fastcarsfreedom Post Number: 327 Registered: 11-2005 |
The truth is that all of the domestic automakers produce good product that gets mileage competitive with the import brands. Instead of gnashing teeth about what company will surive and what won't--be wise in your next vehicle purchase--buy a car that supports your local economy--it's that simple. | ||
Mwilbert Member Username: Mwilbert Post Number: 287 Registered: 11-2007 |
"The truth is that all of the domestic automakers produce good product that gets mileage competitive with the import brands." Not in the US they don't. Ford and Chrysler don't even sell cars in the size/mileage range of the Yaris/Fit/Versa. GM sells the not-very-good Aveo. And what do they sell that is even vaguely comparable to the Prius? "So GM will survive. Just with massive blue-collar and supplier job cuts." And a bankruptcy at GM North America. | ||
Perfectgentleman Member Username: Perfectgentleman Post Number: 7182 Registered: 03-2006 |
When allowing for inflation, gas was the equivalent of $6 per gallon in the 1970's and cars got far worse mileage then. People will adjust, buy more fuel efficient cars, cut back on the extras and acclimate to $4 per gallon gas. Europe has been living with much higher prices for years. It is true that the big 3 are non-competitive in the compact and sub-compact segments so things will get worse for them. Profit from SUV's had been keeping the wolf at the door for the last several years. Michigan is clearly not perceived as a business friendly state as we have been unable to diversify much beyond the auto industry. Every time one of the unions around here strikes and makes the national news it just screams out to manufacturers across the nation "DON'T COME TO MICHIGAN." That and we have a governor that thinks it is a good idea to increase taxes in the middle of a one state recession that we now know are not raising the revenue that was predicted. (Message edited by perfectgentleman on June 24, 2008) | ||
Lilpup Member Username: Lilpup Post Number: 4520 Registered: 06-2004 |
same old, same old from the one-track PG | ||
Wazootyman Member Username: Wazootyman Post Number: 373 Registered: 02-2006 |
quote: I'll agree on Chrysler, but you've got your head up your ass regarding GM and Ford. A brief comparison: 2008 Honda Fit (1.5L 4-cyl, 5-spd manual, 109 HP) 28/34 2008 Toyota Yaris (1.5L 4-cyl 5-spd manual, 106 HP) 29/36 2008 Nissan Versa (1.8L 4-cyl 5-spd manual, 122 HP) 26/31 2008 Chevy Cobalt XFE (2.2L 4-cyl 5-spd manual, 148 HP) 25/36 2008 Ford Focus (2.0L 4-cyl 4-spd manual, 140 HP) 24/35 2008 Saturn Astra 2DR (1.8L 4-cyl 5-spd manual, 140 HP) 24/32 This is why the domestic car companies are hurting. The general population is ignorant, and has a heavy bias towards Asian imports. | ||
Lilpup Member Username: Lilpup Post Number: 4521 Registered: 06-2004 |
The domestics are also the only ones E85 capable while the Japanese have actively lobbied against an E85 mandate - Honda has no models E85 capable, Toyota and Nissan each have only two. This American technological edge is really what has been pissed away by lack of an energy policy these last eight years. | ||
Fastcarsfreedom Member Username: Fastcarsfreedom Post Number: 328 Registered: 11-2005 |
Well said Walzootyman--there are many so-called informed consumers who have their heads a long way up their own asses--sadly it doesn't matter what facts you present to them--they cling to their 1994 issues of Consumer Reports and tell you that you're wrong. Toyota and Honda have been wonderful at "spinning" themselves into eco-friendly brands--despite the massive carbon footprint created by building a car like the Prius--and of course ignorning the fact that they've continually added larger and more fuel-hungry trucks and SUVs to their roster--along with everyone else. As for the "not so good" Aveo (whatever that means)--why don't you have a look-see online and read up on the numerous aches and pains created by "wonderful" cars like the Echo. Glad someone pointed out the Cobalt XFE--a testament to what the engineering minds at General Motors can do to improve the fuel economy of an existing car. For all the bashing the take this is the company that is considering getting rid of an entire brand--namely because of it's image--and pumping billions of dollars into the Volt (and Detroit as a result) as well as expanding Lordstown to build the next-gen Cobalt...G6s are selling incredibly well (again, an 'older' design) and the Malibu is being built in TWO plants (Fairfax and Orion Twnshp)--so before you start clanging the chimes of doom--take Walzootyman's advise and remove your cranium from your crevace. | ||
Mike Member Username: Mike Post Number: 1428 Registered: 11-2003 |
manufacturing in the united states is dead. the free market ate it up. | ||
Perfectgentleman Member Username: Perfectgentleman Post Number: 7206 Registered: 03-2006 |
E85 is no panacea Lilpup, maybe you should read the papers more. The Ethanol revolution is a bubble waiting to burst for a variety of reasons. | ||
Mind_field Member Username: Mind_field Post Number: 916 Registered: 10-2003 |
I heard an intriguing comment from an executive with a Silicon Valley venture capital firm: In 10-15 years there will be a clean tech(as in renewable energy) company the size of Exxon Mobil or Chevron. It is just a prediction. But when her firm started in the mid nineties, hardly any venture capitalists would touch clean tech. Now investment is BOOMING, with 10-15% of venture capital invested in clean, renewable technology. If GM can survive until they can successfully and profitably mass produce a plug in hybrid, GM will be a rising star once again. | ||
Lilpup Member Username: Lilpup Post Number: 4523 Registered: 06-2004 |
"E85 is no panacea Lilpup, maybe you should read the papers more" I'm sure when it comes to ethanol I read them more than you do, that's why I believe in ethanol as having the most immediate impact on the oil dependency problem. It's distribution should have been mandated years ago. If it weren't so promising the oil companies and Japanese automakers wouldn't lobby against it and there wouldn't be the hurdles on importing Brazilian ethanol that there are. | ||
Iheartthed Member Username: Iheartthed Post Number: 3236 Registered: 04-2006 |
quote: No it wasn't. When adjusted for inflation gas is still currently in all time high range. Gas was never the equivalent of $6/gallon. CNN -- Gas prices: Worse than '81 oil shock Now if you're trying to say that gas in the 1970s was a higher percentage of average personal income then yes, that's true. On the other hand, average personal income today is skewed because rich people are a lot more rich today than they were in the 1970s. | ||
Iheartthed Member Username: Iheartthed Post Number: 3237 Registered: 04-2006 |
If they can't figure out a way to make ethanol viable without the cost of food shooting through the roof, I fail to see how it will be sustainable. Hydrogen fuel cells will be all the rage. | ||
Mike Member Username: Mike Post Number: 1429 Registered: 11-2003 |
ethanol from corn is most likely a sham. brazil has it right, i believe that they use sugar. | ||
Lilpup Member Username: Lilpup Post Number: 4524 Registered: 06-2004 |
The reason food prices are shooting through the roof is not ethanol, but the rising price of the fuel needed to grow, harvest, and deliver it. Everyone needs to remember that ethanol can be distilled from almost any biomass. Some processes and sources are more efficient than others but as demand rises all the processes will be developed and refined for increased efficiency. (Message edited by lilpup on June 25, 2008) | ||
Mwilbert Member Username: Mwilbert Post Number: 289 Registered: 11-2007 |
Wazootyman--did you look at the city mileage numbers? Why are they worse? Because those cars are bigger. And more expensive. And of course you ignored the Prius. These cars are not direct competitors in that segment, they compete in the compact segment with the Civic. People who buy subcompacts buy them because they are looking for maximum economy, and aren't going to buy compacts instead, even if you think they should. Up to now, the US automakers have mostly ignored that segment and now that people want better fuel economy that is a problem --that and the fact that the US makers have trouble building smaller cars profitably. | ||
Rb336 Member Username: Rb336 Post Number: 6750 Registered: 02-2007 |
"So much of this price increase is due to the fact that our currency is so weak" largely due to the dubya/republican debt machine and poor fiscal policy (check the total amount of US currency in circulation during the last 5 years, M3 I think it's called) of course most non-industry analysts say at least 1/4 of the price of gas is due to the speculative bubble caused by putting oil futures in a separate realm from other commodities that is totally free of regulation and oversight (thanks Sen Graham, one of McCain's advisors on economic matters, who created that mess, and thanks dubya for those hush-hush meetings on energy policy you had early in your first term) | ||
Mwilbert Member Username: Mwilbert Post Number: 291 Registered: 11-2007 |
That would be former Senator Gramm, not current Senator Graham. | ||
Pffft Member Username: Pffft Post Number: 1549 Registered: 12-2003 |
And let's not forget the illegal Bush conservative takeover of the Justice Department, which now may finally be cleaned up: http://www.detnews.com/apps/pb cs.dll/article?AID=/20080625/P OLITICS/806250329 | ||
Rb336 Member Username: Rb336 Post Number: 6756 Registered: 02-2007 |
whoops. yep, thanks Mwilbert | ||
7051 Member Username: 7051 Post Number: 117 Registered: 02-2006 |
Lilpup, Ethanol can be made from any biomass, but is NOT being made from any other biomass except corn currently. This is why corn prices are high. | ||
Lilpup Member Username: Lilpup Post Number: 4525 Registered: 06-2004 |
and? | ||
Wazootyman Member Username: Wazootyman Post Number: 375 Registered: 02-2006 |
quote: I don't think most people really want a subcompact. I want to fit five people comfortably. I want to be able to fit camping gear, or ten bags of mulch in the back. Let's suppose that the effective mileage difference between the Japanese subcompact and Ford/GM compact is 2 MPG - given that most people spend a portion of their commute on the freeway. Let's suppose a round-trip of 30 miles per day, 5 days a week, four weeks a month, for a total of 600 miles a month. If we jump from 28 to 30 MPG (speculating an average), we go from 21.4 to 20 gallons per month, costing us $5.60 more. I spent more on breakfast today. Most people can afford the compact car. I bet if people really realized how little difference it would make, they'd spend the extra for a little more acceleration and comfort. quote: I didn't include ANY hybrids. People looking for maximum economy in the truest sense won't buy a Prius. The premium doesn't quite meet the payback. quote: You pretty much answered the "why" regarding subcompacts, not to mention that most people actually preferred SUVs in the past, and still do. The Asian automakers are not necessarily smarter - they've just always favored smaller cars and have fallen into favor with the rise in gas prices. Most of this city was built upon the past efforts of the domestic automotive industry and its employees. We enjoy a high quality of life; the consequence is the domestic manufacturers face increasingly tight margins. I can't believe how quickly people are willing to throw away one of the last remaining major industries in this country. (Message edited by wazootyman on June 25, 2008) |
