Discuss Detroit » Archives - July 2008 » What's with Oil prices? « Previous Next »
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French777
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Username: French777

Post Number: 485
Registered: 10-2006
Posted on Thursday, July 17, 2008 - 4:20 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

They keep going down well as of Thursday July 17th this is the 3rd day they have fallen!

Down $15 dollars from last Friday!

(Message edited by French777 on July 17, 2008)
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Frankg
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Username: Frankg

Post Number: 405
Registered: 08-2007
Posted on Thursday, July 17, 2008 - 4:22 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

This example shows another negative effects of our free market. Speculators driving up the price and now taking profits. In the meantime, everyone who depends on oil suffers from the rise in prices.

Clearly, supply,demand did not change that drastically. This is not a simple case of a commodity market correcting itself.
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Thejesus
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Username: Thejesus

Post Number: 106
Registered: 06-2008
Posted on Thursday, July 17, 2008 - 4:24 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

The speculative bubble was bound to pop at some point.

Investors are doing the same thing with oil that they did with the stock market at the end of the 1990s and the housing market just a few years ago.

Sure, there's increased demand out there driving the price, but in all three cases, investors just took it a little too far, and the price eventually plummets as everyone tries to get out and cut their losses.
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Higgs1634
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Username: Higgs1634

Post Number: 589
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Posted on Thursday, July 17, 2008 - 4:28 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Of course the irony will be that in the coming years the "Big" 2 and Cerberus Motors will have replaced their entire line up with 35mpg micro cars and plug in hybrids that no one will want if gas (per Bloomberg) returns to 90.00 a barrel.
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Johnlodge
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Username: Johnlodge

Post Number: 7662
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Posted on Thursday, July 17, 2008 - 4:29 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Great news, but hopefully people won't rush back out and buy more SUVs soon. I kind of like being able to see the traffic lights and what's going on around me on the road lately, instead of just seeing the back of an Excursion with a 4'3" lady driving just herself around in it.
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_sj_
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Username: _sj_

Post Number: 2340
Registered: 12-2003
Posted on Thursday, July 17, 2008 - 4:29 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

It is actually a little more complicated than that. Including adding the fear amongst Americans who realized that their access to cheap gas which they believe was a birth right was starting to end. Which added to the price.

How can you see that women with their dark tinted windows not allowing you to see anything but the back of their car. When did it become mandatory for mini-vans, trucks and SUVS to have tinted windows.

(Message edited by _sj_ on July 17, 2008)
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Iheartthed
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Username: Iheartthed

Post Number: 3304
Registered: 04-2006
Posted on Thursday, July 17, 2008 - 4:29 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

The fed stopped cutting interest rates.
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Mind_field
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Username: Mind_field

Post Number: 925
Registered: 10-2003
Posted on Thursday, July 17, 2008 - 4:37 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Just wait until Iran is attacked. $4/gallon will seem cheap!!
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Detroitrise
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Username: Detroitrise

Post Number: 2850
Registered: 09-2007
Posted on Thursday, July 17, 2008 - 4:46 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

So, by Monday (if this continues ) prices at the pump should range from $3.5 - $3.75.

It doesn't really matter how prices adjust themselves, the damage has been done worldwide.

(Message edited by DetroitRise on July 17, 2008)
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Lefty2
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Username: Lefty2

Post Number: 1532
Registered: 07-2007
Posted on Thursday, July 17, 2008 - 7:13 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

It's called free market capitalism.
Long term the market makes the decision on what is valuable or not.
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401don
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Username: 401don

Post Number: 651
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Posted on Thursday, July 17, 2008 - 7:22 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

We're being told on the radio in the Toronto area the past couple of nights exactly how much to expect a price drop as of midnight. Tonight it's another 2 cents (per Liter). Not only is this unusual but it goes against the bull we were told previously by big oil that it takes weeks for the price of crude to go through the system before retail is effected.
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Flanders_field
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Username: Flanders_field

Post Number: 715
Registered: 01-2008
Posted on Thursday, July 17, 2008 - 7:47 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

I read that some refineries sacrificed their profit margins recently to lower prices temporarily, whether it was a gesture of goodwill to suffering consumers, or they planned on making up for it when prices dropped remains to be seen.
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East_detroit
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Username: East_detroit

Post Number: 1849
Registered: 11-2003
Posted on Thursday, July 17, 2008 - 10:04 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Why arent lower oil prices a top headline on CNN.com?

They seem gleefully lazy to print "oil prices hit record high" every time they go up 5 cents over the last record high, but nothing when it goes down? No fun headline for that?
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Detroitplanner
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Username: Detroitplanner

Post Number: 1730
Registered: 04-2006
Posted on Thursday, July 17, 2008 - 10:55 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Oil is dropping like a stone. Speculators are reacting to good news from some of the major banks (they made a killing off of the credit criminals last quarter). They are moving their money out of commodities and back into stocks and bonds to ake advantage of when they take off as stocks and bonds are trading pretty cheaply now and are considered a good investment.

Supplies of oil are also too high. They have no where to store it as they have been consolidating refineries over the last 20 years. Supplies are too high because oil prices are too high. Remember, even China stopped subsidizing oil last month because they were loosing their shirts.

So two of the main drivers of the oil costs, the speculators and the supply are coming to bite them on the ass.

I am hopeful that this will take some of the pressure off the local economy and put the fear of God into the idiots who insist on buying big ass trucks that they don't need. Yes, you really need that Hummer-2 or Suburban to take your kids to soccer games in, give me a break.
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Jimaz
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Username: Jimaz

Post Number: 5851
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Posted on Thursday, July 17, 2008 - 11:19 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

You can chart the recent history of gas/oil prices here at detroitgasprices.com.

Select "Michigan, MI" as "Area 2," "USA Average" as "Area 3," check the "Show Crude Oil Price" box and you can get a good picture of what's been happening just recently.

Crude prices are plummeting far faster than gasoline prices. Gasoline prices should follow soon.
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Flanders_field
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Username: Flanders_field

Post Number: 720
Registered: 01-2008
Posted on Thursday, July 17, 2008 - 11:44 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

quote:


I am hopeful that this will take some of the pressure off the local economy and put the fear of God into the idiots who insist on buying big ass trucks that they don't need. Yes, you really need that Hummer-2 or Suburban to take your kids to soccer games in, give me a break



After reading the national Gas Buddy message boards, it would basically take rationing to pry their collective grips from their huge gas hogs' steering wheels, belonging to the more financially fortunate in the US, they have absolutely no qualms about their lack of "patriotic" conservation.

Of course there are those who need large vehicles as part of their employment, or to tow their big toys around. Getting rid of those behemoths is no easy chore right now either. If gas was truly rationed for an extended period of time, I could see the poor driving them, and the rest driving the very sought after fuel-efficient vehicles.
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Professorscott
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Username: Professorscott

Post Number: 1455
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Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 1:16 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Flanders, I agree there is a group of people out there who are completely unconcerned about the price of gas. I don't think Bill Gates gives a flying shit how much he pays, for instance. Those people, however, are a miniscule part of the population, so even if they continue to drive souped-up H2s, it has no effect on anything at a macro level.

Go to any used-car lot, at least out where I live, and all the people who were driving F250s because they were some kind of weird status symbol have turned them in, and for very little in trade. My local used-car lot has so many trucks and vans that when I dropped by for a visit two weeks ago, he told me if I bought a pickup truck he'd throw in a van, no charge. He wasn't joking. There were only two good high-mileage cars on his lot, and when I drove by two days later they were both gone.

Incidentally, the price of oil over the last several months has been completely a speculator-driven bubble. Speculators aren't inherently bad; they're just investors, but they tend to follow a crowd like lemmings to a cliff. These are the same financial geniuses that gave us the website bubble in 1997-99. It had no legitimate reason to attract so much investment; neither does oil right now.

Look at all the bullshit reasons the oil experts have to try to come up with, day after day, to justify the rise. Various troubles in the middle east, like that hasn't been a constant for the last two thousand years. This or that momentary disruption at some refinery, another constant since the 1870s. Slightly more legitimate is the ascendancy of India and China into the forefront of the world economy, but that's been a trend coming for a long time, not just suddenly since nine months ago.

If you hold oil futures right now, my guess would be that you'd do well to get out while the market is still artificially inflated. I suspect oil will settle into the $55 to $75 range in the next year, which is about where it ought to be based on the fundamentals.

Or stay in; I could be wrong and it could go to $400 next week.

Either way, there's not going to be $1.49 gasoline for a long time if ever, so dump the Hummer and pick up a Focus. Or a bus pass, if you want to emulate the old Prof.
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Detroitduo
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Username: Detroitduo

Post Number: 912
Registered: 06-2005
Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 6:08 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

OH, come on you guys! You aren't giving credit where the credit is due! OBVIOUSLY, oil prices are dropping because Mr. Bush has removed the executive order banning offshore drilling and he is successfully pushing congress to do the same as well as opening further N.A. reserves for drilling! Now that man there, is a true leader and a success! with his great decisions and leadership, we will be back to $2.00/gal by November! Viva Bush!

\sarcasm off
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Mauser765
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Username: Mauser765

Post Number: 2977
Registered: 01-2004
Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 8:14 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

"OBVIOUSLY, oil prices are dropping because Mr. Bush has removed the executive order banning offshore drilling"

Yessss, and even IF the oil companies even had available equipment to start offshore or Anwar drilling - that oil would be ready to impact the market when people who are currently infants are old enough to be driving to the bar for a drink.

According to President Bushs oil experts, that is.

But this all has what to do with detroit ?
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Emu_steve
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Username: Emu_steve

Post Number: 663
Registered: 11-2006
Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 8:24 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

I essentially agree with DetroitPlanner.

Some free market/econ majors (even the Ph.D. variety) are or were saying that there was no way to jimmy the markets in oil (who can take millions and millions of barrels of oil off the market and store it to reduce short term supply?).

I saw a nice article last night that the futures markets can in effect produce shortages/excess even though these are folks dealing in contracts.

Maybe the word VIRTUAL SUPPLY SHORTAGE is a good term.

I read two 'developments' (AKA rumors):

1). Mexico is locking in contracts feeling that today's price 'is as good as it will get.'

2). Related to the comment about China subsidizing oil (can someone making 50 cents an hour afford 4 buck gallon or whatever the price would be free of subsidy in China) was word that both European and Asian economies are starting to slow (as well as ours).

Barring something bad in say Iran, I'd guess the price pressure is downward not upward. :-)

P.S. if prices drop, I hope we don't lose the momentum toward conservation and other type of energy.
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Detroitplanner
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Username: Detroitplanner

Post Number: 1733
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Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 8:31 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Flanders, I have empathy for those who need trucks for their work/business. I don't however have it for those who use them to truck their quads, dirtbikes, water scooters, or RV's around. I was reading an article in some paper last week where a lady was quoted as saying "Its gotten to the point where it makes more sense to buy a car that gets good gas milage and stay in hotels then it is to drive this motorhome around pulling our SUV." Lady, its ALWAYS made more sense! How much did that motorhome cost you? How much was the SUV? Next to that the 8 miles to the gallon is trivial. I am convinced there is a huge amount of people out there that have no understanding of simple economics.
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Emu_steve
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Username: Emu_steve

Post Number: 664
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Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 8:34 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

One P.S. to DetroitPlanner's comment:

I agree that big money and small money do go looking where to put there money and they evaluate stocks, bonds, cash, commodities, real estate, etc. etc.

and move their money accordingly.

when stocks go south, money is taken out of the market and placed elsewhere.

Earlier this decade stocks tanked but money moved to real estate until that bubbled out.

Now instead of putting money in bonds, liquid cash, etc. money has been going to commodities.

When commodities are viewed as 'overpriced' that investment instrument will fall out of favor.

I agree the next move (now started?) is back to stocks.

Hopefully that will have the net effect of rising stock values and lowering the price of commodities.

Lot of baby boomers fear a bear market in stocks as they approach retirement. (some baby boomers, born in '46, become Social Security eligible this year).
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Higgs1634
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Username: Higgs1634

Post Number: 590
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Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 8:51 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

quote:

Lady, its ALWAYS made more sense! How much did that motorhome cost you? How much was the SUV? Next to that the 8 miles to the gallon is trivial. I am convinced there is a huge amount of people out there that have no understanding of simple economics.



I'm convinced there are whole lot of people that don't understand the difference between stories about people altering their discretionary spending and those struggling with necessities.
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Detroitplanner
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Username: Detroitplanner

Post Number: 1734
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Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 9:00 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

With the Dow at 11,000 (a couple of days ago) it makes sense to put your $$$ there. Its way down, as is NASDAQ.

What do people think that this will do to our job market locally? Should we continue to have high gas prices to take advantage of transport cost (we are the United States manufacturing center after all)? Will this help stabilize the housing market around here? Will people learn and slowly move closer to where they work?

There are a whole slew of folks in my office who either carpool or take the bus to work these days. Since the elimination of the 260 route, It is very difficult for me to take the bus from where I live to work. It takes me 15 minutes to drive to work or 45 minutes by bus. During evening peak it is closer to one hour vs. 20 minutes. It makes no economic sense for me not to drive these days, as I only burn about 3 gallons of gas getting to work for the week, keep to my own schedule, and have the freedom to chain trips.
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Iheartthed
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Username: Iheartthed

Post Number: 3305
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Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 10:08 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Party's over:

Oil rebounds on economic outlook
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Hooha
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Username: Hooha

Post Number: 181
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Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 11:14 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

http://www.latimes.com/news/op inion/commentary/la-oe-stein11 -2008jul11,0,6314598.column

Why things would be better with 8 dollar gas. I don't know how I ended up on the LA Times website.
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Detroitplanner
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Post Number: 1735
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Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 12:08 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

A one-dollar reversal is hardly the end of the party. What you are seeing are some of the more riskier speculators jumping in.
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Lostlegumes
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Post Number: 41
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Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 12:54 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

And gas prices varying by 20 cents a gallon--between stations a few blocks apart.
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Emu_steve
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Username: Emu_steve

Post Number: 665
Registered: 11-2006
Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 12:58 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

quote:

"A one-dollar reversal is hardly the end of the party. What you are seeing are some of the more riskier speculators jumping in."

Agree.

After falling 16 bucks in a few days a one-dollar reversal doesn't even qualify as a 'dead cat bounce."

To me such a minimal 'bounce' suggests that some smart money is going to the sidelines.

They were not just looking to jump in again.

I hope this is the end of the 145, 170, 200, etc. talk (the straight line up with no end in sight).

Nothing goes up (or down) forever.

If so, we'd have a 36,000 Dow ;-)

(I need to read that book about Dow 36,000. I guess his thesis was 10,000 Dow doubles and becomes 20,000 Dow. 20,000 Dow goes up 80% and it is now 36,000 Dow. Pretty simple. :-) ).

Guess he never thought that stocks, even blue chip stocks, could go down.

Never heard of recessions and bear markets?


(Message edited by emu steve on July 18, 2008)
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Iheartthed
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Username: Iheartthed

Post Number: 3307
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Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 12:59 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

quote:

A one-dollar reversal is hardly the end of the party. What you are seeing are some of the more riskier speculators jumping in.



I don't call a 4 day downward trend the evidence of a bursting bubble either.
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Emu_steve
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Username: Emu_steve

Post Number: 666
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Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 1:07 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

We'll see if the back of run away oil prices has been broken or if this is an interlude.

This is a huge story of the American economy and the world's economy.

I agree with T. Boone. It hurts to see the U.S. send so much money overseas.
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Detroitplanner
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Username: Detroitplanner

Post Number: 1737
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Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 2:21 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Iheart, it is a big drop, it lost about 15 percent of its value. Something like that has a tendancy of taking the wind out of the speculators sail. No one invests to lose money.
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Detroitrise
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Username: Detroitrise

Post Number: 2870
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Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 2:58 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

I did hear from some people that gas has dropped below $4.00 (from over $4.3 yesterday) today. :-)
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Emu_steve
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Username: Emu_steve

Post Number: 667
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Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 3:01 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Here is a 'is the bubble bursting?' article.

http://www.breitbart.com/artic le.php?id=D920D0000&show_artic le=1
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Iheartthed
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Username: Iheartthed

Post Number: 3308
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Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 3:10 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

quote:

Iheart, it is a big drop, it lost about 15 percent of its value. Something like that has a tendancy of taking the wind out of the speculators sail. No one invests to lose money.



I'm aware that it is a big drop, but I still think it's too early to call this evidence of a bubble. Six months ago nobody thought we would come anywhere close to $150/barrel this year. Then a month ago Goldman Sachs had to revise it's year-end forecast for oil from $101 to $149. As of today, they are standing by the forecast so I say hold off on the celebrations.

Today oil is again rallying on inventory concerns and possible supply disruptions. Not to mention that we just entered hurricane season! And stocks are anything but stable yet.
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Professorscott
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Username: Professorscott

Post Number: 1460
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Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 3:14 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

...and every one of those things happens every year, and gasoline and oil prices do not jump around like this.

I have yet to hear any credible reason why 2008 is so different, except all the lemmings who lost their ass in real estate are jumping into oil.

Goldman Sachs has no more idea what's going to happen next week or in October than you or I do. We believe their guesses because they wear suits and appear on CNN.
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Iheartthed
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Username: Iheartthed

Post Number: 3309
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Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 3:16 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

quote:

I have yet to hear any credible reason why 2008 is so different, except all the lemmings who lost their ass in real estate are jumping into oil.



That's part of it. Another part of it is that the price of oil is tied to the value of the U.S. dollar. So when our currency loses value, it costs us more to purchase a barrel of oil.
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Iheartthed
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Username: Iheartthed

Post Number: 3310
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Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 3:18 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

quote:

Goldman Sachs has no more idea what's going to happen next week or in October than you or I do. We believe their guesses because they wear suits and appear on CNN.



And that's a gross simplification of what goes into price forecasting...
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Professorscott
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Username: Professorscott

Post Number: 1461
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Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 3:24 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Here's a fun thing to do: go back to any previous year and read the expert forecasts for the following year, and see how close they were.

Forecasting something like the price of oil is similar in its way to forecasting the weather. Based on historical trends and wetting your thumb and sticking it out the window, you can see what's happening right now and you can make a good guess at what'll happen tomorrow. But you have no clue whatsoever as to what'll happen in a month or a year.

Video tape Chuck Gaidica's eight-days-out forecast. Eight days from now, see how close he was. Repeat as needed.

The models for weather forecasting and commodity price forecasting are complex and mature, and usually wrong, because the simplification required in mathematical modeling obscures too much to have any validity beyond a small distance out from the present.
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Steamaker
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Username: Steamaker

Post Number: 66
Registered: 03-2007
Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 - 10:54 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

"Flanders, I have empathy for those who need trucks for their work/business. I don't however have it for those who use them to truck their quads, dirtbikes, water scooters, or RV's around. I was reading an article in some paper last week where a lady was quoted as saying "Its gotten to the point where it makes more sense to buy a car that gets good gas milage and stay in hotels then it is to drive this motorhome around pulling our SUV." Lady, its ALWAYS made more sense! How much did that motorhome cost you? How much was the SUV? Next to that the 8 miles to the gallon is trivial. I am convinced there is a huge amount of people out there that have no understanding of simple economics."

Since when has it become a sin to enjoy outdoor activities? Maybe there are a few of us who enjoy the great outdoors. I get sooooo! tired of hearing about how bad humans are and how we are ruining the earth. Get over yourselves people! No wonder we are a bunch of lazy fat asses. Everyone wants to stay inside and play on their computer. I for one will continue to enjoy my big pick up truck, my quads, my boat, and my horses. I will continue to camp because I live in a beautiful country and can enjoy it better in a camper rather than a motel.
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Emu_steve
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Username: Emu_steve

Post Number: 668
Registered: 11-2006
Posted on Saturday, July 19, 2008 - 10:02 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

quote:

"Forecasting something like the price of oil is similar in its way to forecasting the weather. Based on historical trends and wetting your thumb and sticking it out the window, you can see what's happening right now and you can make a good guess at what'll happen tomorrow. But you have no clue whatsoever as to what'll happen in a month or a year. "

Actually it is worse.

If someone asks what the weather will be in DET on August 15. I'll check the average for that date and predict it. Might add a 1/2 degree for global warming. :-)

The price of oil projections are extrapolations of a series of data. Much like demographers extrapolate population growth. Doesn't account for anything other this past trends.

Makes as much sense as the book: "Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market is a book by James K. Glassman" (Wikipedida.com)
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Iheartthed
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Username: Iheartthed

Post Number: 3313
Registered: 04-2006
Posted on Saturday, July 19, 2008 - 10:11 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

quote:

Since when has it become a sin to enjoy outdoor activities? Maybe there are a few of us who enjoy the great outdoors. I get sooooo! tired of hearing about how bad humans are and how we are ruining the earth. Get over yourselves people! No wonder we are a bunch of lazy fat asses. Everyone wants to stay inside and play on their computer. I for one will continue to enjoy my big pick up truck, my quads, my boat, and my horses. I will continue to camp because I live in a beautiful country and can enjoy it better in a camper rather than a motel.



You know good and damn well that nobody is complaining about you taking your truck on a camping trip up North every now and then. You also know good and damn well that the vast majority of these SUVs are used to drive transport a single person 5-10 miles from their home to the office and back for 5 days a week.

There is a big difference between using resources to haul camping equipment up North three times per summer, and hauling someone's ass to work 5 times a week.
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Emu_steve
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Username: Emu_steve

Post Number: 669
Registered: 11-2006
Posted on Saturday, July 19, 2008 - 10:17 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

If a Martian visited planet earth and went to Phoenix in January and charted average temps and then again in Feb, March, April, May, and June.

When would he predict that Phoenix would hit the boiling point? :-)

But hopefully he would take a statistics course with some work in time series analysis.

President Reagan couldn't understand how the economy could create jobs in June AND the unemployment rate could rise. (the answer is simple: the labor force has seasonal flucations - grows in June as students and graduates enter the labor force. Which grows faster: Jobs or the labor force?).
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Steamaker
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Username: Steamaker

Post Number: 67
Registered: 03-2007
Posted on Saturday, July 19, 2008 - 10:45 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

"You know good and damn well that nobody is complaining about you taking your truck on a camping trip up North every now and then. You also know good and damn well that the vast majority of these SUVs are used to drive transport a single person 5-10 miles from their home to the office and back for 5 days a week.

There is a big difference between using resources to haul camping equipment up North three times per summer, and hauling someone's ass to work 5 times a week."

Maybe some people can only afford one vehicle and choose the SUV. If they can afford it, who the hell are you to tell them they shouldn't own it? They said the same thing to us out here in the desert about water. Conserve! Yet the casinos are building great big fountains. Orville Hubbard stated that if everyone would sweep his own doorstep the whole world would be clean. Why don't you start with your life before you tell others how to run their lives.
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Detroitplanner
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Username: Detroitplanner

Post Number: 1740
Registered: 04-2006
Posted on Sunday, July 20, 2008 - 12:04 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

"The price of oil projections are extrapolations of a series of data. Much like demographers extrapolate population growth. Doesn't account for anything other this past trends."

Yes but the tricky thing is that in the case of oil it is a muti-nomial regression. AND the variables are in constant flux.

Steam, if you have quads, dirt-bikes, snowmobiles, campers, and boats; you can afford a Focus to go with that SUV. There are plenty of places in Northern Michigan where you can rent that stuff. I for one would rather spend $20 an hour to rent a boat than have my capital invested in something that depreciates and I won't be using for 95 percent of the year.

(Message edited by Detroitplanner on July 20, 2008)

(Message edited by detroitplanner on July 20, 2008)
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Sstashmoo
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Username: Sstashmoo

Post Number: 1957
Registered: 02-2007
Posted on Sunday, July 20, 2008 - 12:50 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

What Steamaker said.
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Steamaker
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Username: Steamaker

Post Number: 69
Registered: 03-2007
Posted on Sunday, July 20, 2008 - 2:47 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

"Steam, if you have quads, dirt-bikes, snowmobiles, campers, and boats; you can afford a Focus to go with that SUV. There are plenty of places in Northern Michigan where you can rent that stuff. I for one would rather spend $20 an hour to rent a boat than have my capital invested in something that depreciates and I won't be using for 95 percent of the year. "
DetroitPlanner, I do own another car that I drive to work and I use all of these things all year. They are a solid investment for me because I do use them. I was defending other people that may only be able to afford one vehicle. There are people on this board that look down their noses at others and I personally have always defended the underdog.
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Detroitplanner
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Username: Detroitplanner

Post Number: 1743
Registered: 04-2006
Posted on Sunday, July 20, 2008 - 9:29 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Steam you can enjoy the outdoors with a bike or your horses. Most of the folks I see with big pick ups and quads are of the lazy fat ass variety. You should see the pigs in places like St. Helen or Skidway. They have a $10,000 cottage and $50,000 worth of toys. No lawnmowers.
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Mind_field
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Username: Mind_field

Post Number: 926
Registered: 10-2003
Posted on Sunday, July 20, 2008 - 9:44 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

quote:

Maybe some people can only afford one vehicle and choose the SUV. If they can afford it, who the hell are you to tell them they shouldn't own it? They said the same thing to us out here in the desert about water. Conserve! Yet the casinos are building great big fountains. Orville Hubbard stated that if everyone would sweep his own doorstep the whole world would be clean. Why don't you start with your life before you tell others how to run their lives.



hahahhhahahaha! Way too many people in this world are any combination of the following: Morally bankrupt, self serving, lazy, ignorant, incompetant sheep, or apathetic. These people (the general public) need to be scolded and chastised on their wrong, self serving decisions that negatively affect so many people, even future generations. These people need guidance in making ethically superior choices that will leave the world a better place. Nobody can or should force these choices on people, but i reserve the right to speak my mind when i see a personal choice of someone else having a negative consequence on society.
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D_mcc
Member
Username: D_mcc

Post Number: 1013
Registered: 12-2007
Posted on Sunday, July 20, 2008 - 9:53 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Like a heroine addict that just got his fix...

That's exactly what you guys sound like...

tsk tsk...

The oil companies and speculators are appeasing you...I wish you would all realize that...
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Iheartthed
Member
Username: Iheartthed

Post Number: 3315
Registered: 04-2006
Posted on Sunday, July 20, 2008 - 12:23 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

quote:

Maybe some people can only afford one vehicle and choose the SUV. If they can afford it, who the hell are you to tell them they shouldn't own it?



Okay, so if I can't complain about your resource hogging SUV then you can't complain about high gas prices.
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Jimaz
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Username: Jimaz

Post Number: 5916
Registered: 12-2005
Posted on Sunday, July 27, 2008 - 1:44 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

This recent story isn't really about the recent oil price increases but it does show how market manipulation has operated in several previous cases. The links at the end of the story are pretty good too.

Traders manipulated oil prices - U.S.
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Flanders_field
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Username: Flanders_field

Post Number: 784
Registered: 01-2008
Posted on Monday, July 28, 2008 - 5:40 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Interesting how gas prices spiked to over $4.00 a gallon, during the prime distribution period of those "economic stimulus" checks, and now are dropping somewhat now that most have been received and spent.

The oil companies also obviously must have noticed that demand has fallen during the height of the summer travel season, and are now lowering the average gas price in the US to below the psychological $4 a gallon barrier, in order to entice those who are "on the fence" to go ahead with any plans to travel during the final month and holiday weekend of this summer.

Since the gas being pumped NOW was purchased as crude BEFORE global oil prices dropped last week, there can no longer be much doubt that price gouging has been taking place.
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Angry_dad
Member
Username: Angry_dad

Post Number: 222
Registered: 02-2006
Posted on Monday, July 28, 2008 - 5:45 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Don't you think that Chavez and the rest know that if the the price gets too high, those sources of oil that "were" too expensive to develope no longer aren't "too expensive"?

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