Discuss Detroit » Archives - March 2009 » Who will survive? How low will it go? « Previous Next »
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Bobl
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Username: Bobl

Post Number: 528
Registered: 07-2008
Posted on Thursday, February 19, 2009 - 3:51 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Which domestic auto maker will still be afloat in one year?
The DOW is down around 7400 today, how low will it go in the next year?
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Iheartthed
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Username: Iheartthed

Post Number: 3795
Registered: 04-2006
Posted on Thursday, February 19, 2009 - 3:56 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Ford
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Bobl
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Username: Bobl

Post Number: 529
Registered: 07-2008
Posted on Thursday, February 19, 2009 - 4:38 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Ford
6250
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Lilpup
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Username: Lilpup

Post Number: 5294
Registered: 06-2004
Posted on Thursday, February 19, 2009 - 5:22 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Ford and GM
6500
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Crumbled_pavement
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Username: Crumbled_pavement

Post Number: 700
Registered: 08-2007
Posted on Thursday, February 19, 2009 - 7:11 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Yea, Ford. But Ford will look like it was on a slim fast diet in a year.
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Sstashmoo
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Username: Sstashmoo

Post Number: 3351
Registered: 02-2007
Posted on Thursday, February 19, 2009 - 7:11 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Comerica has sure taken a beating in the last few days. They've lost 4 bucks a share or 25% since last Friday. Their stock is at a yearly low.

Ford and GM will be around, Chrysler will be liquidated or absorbed by someone else.

The market, dipping under 5k is a real possibility. Just hunches.
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Purpleheart
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Username: Purpleheart

Post Number: 56
Registered: 01-2009
Posted on Friday, February 20, 2009 - 2:17 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

According to the March 2009 US News and World report (I think everyone should own a copy of this month’s edition) Most of the commentators say this will be a double dip recession and will not pull out till the end of 2011.

[My comment]GM will survive but nothing close to what it looks like today, Ford and Chrysler will be gone. Sad commentary but times are changing my friends; most of us will driving foreign badges just like we own TV's right now and our dollar won't be worth a nickel. So my advice is buy everything you can on the cheap, brush up on your E-Bay skills, and wear a helmet because there is a sh*t storm coming that will stink for many years to come. Just don't it let any fall on you. Nobody is going to give you anything so you better get out and get some while the getting is good and scratch and claw to make a buck. [end]

As for the stock market... rofl.... anybody still in that thing needs their head examined. Oh ya, there are those folks still listening to the nuts like "Mad Money!" ha ha ha, ask him about Merrill Lynch, four days before they sold out for pennies on the dollar he said, "They are strong!" ha ha ha
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Lilpup
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Username: Lilpup

Post Number: 5300
Registered: 06-2004
Posted on Friday, February 20, 2009 - 2:23 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

LOL, my brother's 401(k) is only down 3%.

It's all in how you play it.
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Big_baby_jebus
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Username: Big_baby_jebus

Post Number: 73
Registered: 09-2008
Posted on Friday, February 20, 2009 - 3:30 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

The Big three...


The Final Two...


The last One....It will be Ford, guaranteed.
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Gencinjay
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Username: Gencinjay

Post Number: 107
Registered: 03-2008
Posted on Friday, February 20, 2009 - 3:37 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Ford is on better footing than the other two currently, they have a person in the top spot that has gone through a similar financial problem successfully and they have the original family which is still very active in the ownership of the company. To top it off they're producing some of the best cars in the world according to quality surveys recently. I don't see them going away. Then again, you never know what may happen.
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Brandon48202
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Username: Brandon48202

Post Number: 219
Registered: 12-2004
Posted on Friday, February 20, 2009 - 3:38 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

It looks like a short term bottom to me because of the heavy volume and V shaped intraday chart. I think we will see some recovery next week.
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Danny
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Username: Danny

Post Number: 4496
Registered: 02-2004
Posted on Friday, February 20, 2009 - 3:38 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Oh well, This is truly the end of Detroit.
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Big_baby_jebus
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Username: Big_baby_jebus

Post Number: 77
Registered: 09-2008
Posted on Friday, February 20, 2009 - 3:56 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

^^^^^
says a fool!

Detroit will survive.
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Bobl
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Username: Bobl

Post Number: 543
Registered: 07-2008
Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 12:22 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Big: I have been optimistic in the past, but things are deteriorating fast.
Right now, the only positive thing I see for the City and State is proximity to Great Lakes water and recreation.
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Bibs
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Username: Bibs

Post Number: 320
Registered: 10-2003
Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 12:44 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Either the Big 3 will all be MUCH smaller or one will have gone bankrupt. John L McElroy said five years ago that there was too much production capacity in the US. The recesssion means there is even MORE excess capacity. This is basically a case of which company can survive the longest with negative cash flow. It's going to be a very interesting ride.
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Gistok
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Username: Gistok

Post Number: 6162
Registered: 08-2004
Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 1:30 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Interestingly enough all the small banks and credit unions will survive. They didn't get into the sub-prime meltdown like the big banks did.

In fact most small banks and credit unions are relatively unaffected by the current financial fiasco. Thanks to prudent banking mamangement of the past... something the big banks seem to have forgotten...
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Mauser765
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Username: Mauser765

Post Number: 3015
Registered: 01-2004
Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 1:40 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Below 5000.

90-95% total loss of value.

"In fact most small banks and credit unions are relatively unaffected"

Yep - they all stayed out of the taboo banking temptation of property investments.
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Lilpup
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Username: Lilpup

Post Number: 5312
Registered: 06-2004
Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 1:46 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

In their plan GM is shooting for a US breakeven of 20% of a market volume of 11.5-12.0 million units. If they can achieve that they'll be fine. I can't see the US market staying at its current rate for long. If a few of the smaller companies shrink or go away in the meantime all the better.

Here's a bit of a head scratcher about Porsche: http://www.autoblog.com/2009/0 2/20/frayed-nerves-is-porsche- an-automaker-or-a-hedge-fund/

and Daimler lost money last quarter:http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=%2F20090220%2FAUTO01%2F902200381%2F1148%2Frss25

(Message edited by lilpup on February 21, 2009)
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Gistok
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Username: Gistok

Post Number: 6164
Registered: 08-2004
Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 1:59 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

quote:

Yep - they all stayed out of the taboo banking temptation of property investments.



Wrong! But they were smart enough to stay away from the risky ones.
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Mopardan
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Username: Mopardan

Post Number: 166
Registered: 11-2008
Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 6:55 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Here is a link to Chrysler's 2009 recovery plan. All 167 pages of it.
http://www.chryslerllc-info.co m/docs/viability_plan.pdf
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Bobl
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Username: Bobl

Post Number: 544
Registered: 07-2008
Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 7:06 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

To simplify:
Short answer (or guess) to the questions above. No need to elaborate.

"Which domestic auto maker will still be afloat in one year?
The DOW is down around 7400 today, how low will it go in the next year?"

If this is archived, I will buy a beer for the lucky contributor who is most accurate. In case of tie, a random drawing will be made. All decisions by this judge will be final.

Claim date: 03/17/2010 Happy St Patrick's Day!
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Gannon
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Username: Gannon

Post Number: 9040
Registered: 12-2003
Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 7:39 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Small banks and credit unions still use bonds to offset their more risky bets with their depositors monies...their troubles are coming, too.

Then, since they rely so heavily upon those deposits...when the hyperinflation hits their traditional and very conservative savers will be hit the most.


Plus, most of them don't have the resiliency to weather a surge of defaulted loans, and as unemployment hits more and more folks...small banks and credit unions will have their share of troubles.
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English
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Username: English

Post Number: 454
Registered: 10-2003
Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 8:21 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

I think we'll bottom out in the 4000s or 5000s, optimistically speaking. I think it's going to get MUCH worse before it gets better.
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Gannon
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Username: Gannon

Post Number: 9043
Registered: 12-2003
Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 8:49 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

It will be VERY curious to see who gets de-listed, as I'm sure the DOW has similar rules as NASDAQ...lotsa stocks hovering under two dollars per share, I think ejections are triggered when they stay undre one dollar per share for some period of time.

The DOW Jones Industrials and other bellwethers will look terribly different in a year.
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Bobl
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Username: Bobl

Post Number: 560
Registered: 07-2008
Posted on Monday, February 23, 2009 - 6:49 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

I'm sticking with my 6250 DJIA prediction. Remember, the stock market nearly always starts moving up well before any recovery gathers steam.
The problem will be that it will likely be a long, slow climb out.
Sadly, I only have monopoly money to put back into the stock market when it bottoms out next quarter.
There might be some "deals of the century" out there!
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Rid0617
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Username: Rid0617

Post Number: 401
Registered: 03-2008
Posted on Tuesday, February 24, 2009 - 2:37 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

7100 today and as I type this Asia is nose diving which means we probably will tomorrow too.
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Abraham
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Username: Abraham

Post Number: 27
Registered: 06-2005
Posted on Tuesday, February 24, 2009 - 11:16 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

none of them.
In the 4000's
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Leannam1989
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Username: Leannam1989

Post Number: 192
Registered: 06-2008
Posted on Tuesday, February 24, 2009 - 11:35 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

I realize the car industry is Detroit's biggest industry, but Detroit has other things right?

Detroit, I think, will survive. But it may get worse before it gets better. It'll probably get worse for more cities before it gets better.

One thing on Michigan's side seems to be the tourism on the lakes.

I'm not sure witch of the big 3 will survive longest. It's sad to see them in this state. My bro-in-law makes parts for a few different car companies, one being Ford and I think one being a foreign automaker. I do worry about his job.

That said, I don't know if the Big 3 can be saved. Maybe one of them can.

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