Bobl Member Username: Bobl
Post Number: 528 Registered: 07-2008
| Posted on Thursday, February 19, 2009 - 3:51 pm: | |
Which domestic auto maker will still be afloat in one year? The DOW is down around 7400 today, how low will it go in the next year? |
Iheartthed Member Username: Iheartthed
Post Number: 3795 Registered: 04-2006
| Posted on Thursday, February 19, 2009 - 3:56 pm: | |
Ford |
Bobl Member Username: Bobl
Post Number: 529 Registered: 07-2008
| Posted on Thursday, February 19, 2009 - 4:38 pm: | |
Ford 6250 |
Lilpup Member Username: Lilpup
Post Number: 5294 Registered: 06-2004
| Posted on Thursday, February 19, 2009 - 5:22 pm: | |
Ford and GM 6500 |
Crumbled_pavement Member Username: Crumbled_pavement
Post Number: 700 Registered: 08-2007
| Posted on Thursday, February 19, 2009 - 7:11 pm: | |
Yea, Ford. But Ford will look like it was on a slim fast diet in a year. |
Sstashmoo Member Username: Sstashmoo
Post Number: 3351 Registered: 02-2007
| Posted on Thursday, February 19, 2009 - 7:11 pm: | |
Comerica has sure taken a beating in the last few days. They've lost 4 bucks a share or 25% since last Friday. Their stock is at a yearly low. Ford and GM will be around, Chrysler will be liquidated or absorbed by someone else. The market, dipping under 5k is a real possibility. Just hunches. |
Purpleheart Member Username: Purpleheart
Post Number: 56 Registered: 01-2009
| Posted on Friday, February 20, 2009 - 2:17 pm: | |
According to the March 2009 US News and World report (I think everyone should own a copy of this month’s edition) Most of the commentators say this will be a double dip recession and will not pull out till the end of 2011. [My comment]GM will survive but nothing close to what it looks like today, Ford and Chrysler will be gone. Sad commentary but times are changing my friends; most of us will driving foreign badges just like we own TV's right now and our dollar won't be worth a nickel. So my advice is buy everything you can on the cheap, brush up on your E-Bay skills, and wear a helmet because there is a sh*t storm coming that will stink for many years to come. Just don't it let any fall on you. Nobody is going to give you anything so you better get out and get some while the getting is good and scratch and claw to make a buck. [end] As for the stock market... rofl.... anybody still in that thing needs their head examined. Oh ya, there are those folks still listening to the nuts like "Mad Money!" ha ha ha, ask him about Merrill Lynch, four days before they sold out for pennies on the dollar he said, "They are strong!" ha ha ha |
Lilpup Member Username: Lilpup
Post Number: 5300 Registered: 06-2004
| Posted on Friday, February 20, 2009 - 2:23 pm: | |
LOL, my brother's 401(k) is only down 3%. It's all in how you play it. |
Big_baby_jebus Member Username: Big_baby_jebus
Post Number: 73 Registered: 09-2008
| Posted on Friday, February 20, 2009 - 3:30 pm: | |
The Big three... The Final Two... The last One....It will be Ford, guaranteed. |
Gencinjay Member Username: Gencinjay
Post Number: 107 Registered: 03-2008
| Posted on Friday, February 20, 2009 - 3:37 pm: | |
Ford is on better footing than the other two currently, they have a person in the top spot that has gone through a similar financial problem successfully and they have the original family which is still very active in the ownership of the company. To top it off they're producing some of the best cars in the world according to quality surveys recently. I don't see them going away. Then again, you never know what may happen. |
Brandon48202 Member Username: Brandon48202
Post Number: 219 Registered: 12-2004
| Posted on Friday, February 20, 2009 - 3:38 pm: | |
It looks like a short term bottom to me because of the heavy volume and V shaped intraday chart. I think we will see some recovery next week. |
Danny Member Username: Danny
Post Number: 4496 Registered: 02-2004
| Posted on Friday, February 20, 2009 - 3:38 pm: | |
Oh well, This is truly the end of Detroit. |
Big_baby_jebus Member Username: Big_baby_jebus
Post Number: 77 Registered: 09-2008
| Posted on Friday, February 20, 2009 - 3:56 pm: | |
^^^^^ says a fool! Detroit will survive. |
Bobl Member Username: Bobl
Post Number: 543 Registered: 07-2008
| Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 12:22 pm: | |
Big: I have been optimistic in the past, but things are deteriorating fast. Right now, the only positive thing I see for the City and State is proximity to Great Lakes water and recreation. |
Bibs Member Username: Bibs
Post Number: 320 Registered: 10-2003
| Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 12:44 pm: | |
Either the Big 3 will all be MUCH smaller or one will have gone bankrupt. John L McElroy said five years ago that there was too much production capacity in the US. The recesssion means there is even MORE excess capacity. This is basically a case of which company can survive the longest with negative cash flow. It's going to be a very interesting ride. |
Gistok Member Username: Gistok
Post Number: 6162 Registered: 08-2004
| Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 1:30 pm: | |
Interestingly enough all the small banks and credit unions will survive. They didn't get into the sub-prime meltdown like the big banks did. In fact most small banks and credit unions are relatively unaffected by the current financial fiasco. Thanks to prudent banking mamangement of the past... something the big banks seem to have forgotten... |
Mauser765 Member Username: Mauser765
Post Number: 3015 Registered: 01-2004
| Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 1:40 pm: | |
Below 5000. 90-95% total loss of value. "In fact most small banks and credit unions are relatively unaffected" Yep - they all stayed out of the taboo banking temptation of property investments. |
Lilpup Member Username: Lilpup
Post Number: 5312 Registered: 06-2004
| Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 1:46 pm: | |
In their plan GM is shooting for a US breakeven of 20% of a market volume of 11.5-12.0 million units. If they can achieve that they'll be fine. I can't see the US market staying at its current rate for long. If a few of the smaller companies shrink or go away in the meantime all the better. Here's a bit of a head scratcher about Porsche: http://www.autoblog.com/2009/0 2/20/frayed-nerves-is-porsche- an-automaker-or-a-hedge-fund/ and Daimler lost money last quarter:http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=%2F20090220%2FAUTO01%2F902200381%2F1148%2Frss25 (Message edited by lilpup on February 21, 2009) |
Gistok Member Username: Gistok
Post Number: 6164 Registered: 08-2004
| Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 1:59 pm: | |
quote:Yep - they all stayed out of the taboo banking temptation of property investments. Wrong! But they were smart enough to stay away from the risky ones. |
Mopardan Member Username: Mopardan
Post Number: 166 Registered: 11-2008
| Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 6:55 pm: | |
Here is a link to Chrysler's 2009 recovery plan. All 167 pages of it. http://www.chryslerllc-info.co m/docs/viability_plan.pdf |
Bobl Member Username: Bobl
Post Number: 544 Registered: 07-2008
| Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 7:06 pm: | |
To simplify: Short answer (or guess) to the questions above. No need to elaborate. "Which domestic auto maker will still be afloat in one year? The DOW is down around 7400 today, how low will it go in the next year?" If this is archived, I will buy a beer for the lucky contributor who is most accurate. In case of tie, a random drawing will be made. All decisions by this judge will be final. Claim date: 03/17/2010 Happy St Patrick's Day! |
Gannon Member Username: Gannon
Post Number: 9040 Registered: 12-2003
| Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 7:39 pm: | |
Small banks and credit unions still use bonds to offset their more risky bets with their depositors monies...their troubles are coming, too. Then, since they rely so heavily upon those deposits...when the hyperinflation hits their traditional and very conservative savers will be hit the most. Plus, most of them don't have the resiliency to weather a surge of defaulted loans, and as unemployment hits more and more folks...small banks and credit unions will have their share of troubles. |
English Member Username: English
Post Number: 454 Registered: 10-2003
| Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 8:21 pm: | |
I think we'll bottom out in the 4000s or 5000s, optimistically speaking. I think it's going to get MUCH worse before it gets better. |
Gannon Member Username: Gannon
Post Number: 9043 Registered: 12-2003
| Posted on Saturday, February 21, 2009 - 8:49 pm: | |
It will be VERY curious to see who gets de-listed, as I'm sure the DOW has similar rules as NASDAQ...lotsa stocks hovering under two dollars per share, I think ejections are triggered when they stay undre one dollar per share for some period of time. The DOW Jones Industrials and other bellwethers will look terribly different in a year. |
Bobl Member Username: Bobl
Post Number: 560 Registered: 07-2008
| Posted on Monday, February 23, 2009 - 6:49 pm: | |
I'm sticking with my 6250 DJIA prediction. Remember, the stock market nearly always starts moving up well before any recovery gathers steam. The problem will be that it will likely be a long, slow climb out. Sadly, I only have monopoly money to put back into the stock market when it bottoms out next quarter. There might be some "deals of the century" out there! |
Rid0617 Member Username: Rid0617
Post Number: 401 Registered: 03-2008
| Posted on Tuesday, February 24, 2009 - 2:37 am: | |
7100 today and as I type this Asia is nose diving which means we probably will tomorrow too. |
Abraham Member Username: Abraham
Post Number: 27 Registered: 06-2005
| Posted on Tuesday, February 24, 2009 - 11:16 am: | |
none of them. In the 4000's |
Leannam1989 Member Username: Leannam1989
Post Number: 192 Registered: 06-2008
| Posted on Tuesday, February 24, 2009 - 11:35 am: | |
I realize the car industry is Detroit's biggest industry, but Detroit has other things right? Detroit, I think, will survive. But it may get worse before it gets better. It'll probably get worse for more cities before it gets better. One thing on Michigan's side seems to be the tourism on the lakes. I'm not sure witch of the big 3 will survive longest. It's sad to see them in this state. My bro-in-law makes parts for a few different car companies, one being Ford and I think one being a foreign automaker. I do worry about his job. That said, I don't know if the Big 3 can be saved. Maybe one of them can. |