Discuss Detroit Archives - Beginning January 2006 Detroit housing in the future? Previous Next
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Empiredude
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Username: Empiredude

Post Number: 2
Registered: 04-2006
Posted From: 66.108.102.246
Posted on Thursday, April 13, 2006 - 3:00 am: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

what's your out take on the housing in detroit? will it get outpriced in 20yrs years or less?, or stay how it is now? Will it get better or worse? how do you feel about the economic future of detroit?

(Message edited by empiredude on April 13, 2006)
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Ltorivia485
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Username: Ltorivia485

Post Number: 2523
Registered: 08-2004
Posted From: 199.74.87.98
Posted on Thursday, April 13, 2006 - 4:24 am: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

It will improve when more middle-class residents move back and the number of college degree in the city increases too. Plus, we also need a drop in crime and better leadership minus the corruption aspect. Right now, I think less than 10% of the city population has a college degree.
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My2cents
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Username: My2cents

Post Number: 140
Registered: 10-2003
Posted From: 24.253.67.62
Posted on Thursday, April 13, 2006 - 12:14 pm: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Today on MSN.......

Detroit: Detroit hasn't been on anyone's list of hot markets for a long time. In the most recent report from the NAR, The Motor City

was one of only six metro markets in the country to show a decline in housing appreciation in the past year, with prices down

about a half percent. It's a trend that Local Market Monitor has been tracking since 2001; annual price increases have dropped

from 7% that year to just 2% in 2005. Fortune doesn't predict any better performance in the market through 2007. John Burns

Real Estate Consulting actually gives the Detroit market its worst possible grade, an F, based largely on a large loss of jobs and

the highest unemployment rate of any metro market in the state.

http://realestate.msn.com/buyi ng/Articlebankrate.aspx?cp-doc umentid=421684
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Eastsidedog
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Username: Eastsidedog

Post Number: 234
Registered: 03-2006
Posted From: 12.47.224.7
Posted on Thursday, April 13, 2006 - 6:21 pm: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Ltorivia485, 11% of Detroit residents have a college degree according to recent reports and it is increasing.

My2cents, According to Kilpatricks recent budget address:

quote:

Housing prices have risen 46 percent in Detroit in the last four years, compared to 27 percent nationally and 26 percent in the State of Michigan.



This is pretty accurate but housing prices were ridiculously low for a long time.

Emipredude, as far as housing prices in the future I think their will be very affordable housing in the city for a very long time. However in the core of the city and in the more stable neighborhoods prices doubled and tripled in the last 3-5 years, so bargain historic homes will become increasingly hard to come by unless they need a ton of work. However there will be no shortage of cheap cape cods and ranches on the city's edges possibly ever IMO These are very similar to what you find int he suburbs so it has a harder time competing. IMO the new housing being built will eventually catch up to the prices in the suburbs but I think it will take a while, like 10-15 years or so. Just my speculations. How things pan out in the auto industry will most certainly affect my wild theories of course.
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Tomoh
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Username: Tomoh

Post Number: 147
Registered: 11-2004
Posted From: 68.40.176.163
Posted on Thursday, April 13, 2006 - 6:26 pm: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

I think Metro Detroit and CoD housing markets can move slightly independently of each other since it's a region with not much growth, more or less just internal movement. So people from the suburbs could return to the city, improving the city's numbers while weakening the suburbs'. Higher gas prices, for example, could become a factor in this, as well as increasing urban amenities.
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Eastsidedog
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Username: Eastsidedog

Post Number: 237
Registered: 03-2006
Posted From: 12.47.224.7
Posted on Thursday, April 13, 2006 - 6:39 pm: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Tomoh, I'd say that if Detroit's core actually gains population at some point it will have to come from somewhere. Without population growth someplace has to be abandoned. I'd say that over time with the movement towards the urban core and the exurbs, the nondescript older bedroom communities will suffer most. Just a theory.

Of course population growth would be far better, but that will require great economic growth and likely immigrants.
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Mackinaw
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Username: Mackinaw

Post Number: 1368
Registered: 02-2005
Posted From: 141.213.173.94
Posted on Thursday, April 13, 2006 - 7:01 pm: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Next 5 years:...1)housing prices begrudingly increase a tad faster than inflation in sprawling areas like Macomb Township, Rochester, and Canton. Home building will also continue at a pace similar to right now. Enough to make us all pissy, but not nearly as much as 5 years ago.
2) The inner ring has mighty struggles, unless fuel prices reach near $5/gal. Even Grosse Pointe will only match inflation at best. The flight from the inner to outer ring will really slow down, but most people will just stay in one place and thus demand for existing homes in general will be low.
3) The C of D will continue on its current course. Solid neighborhoods with good neighborhood associations and middle-upper class population like Rosedale Park, Palmer Park, and Indian Village will follow the inner rings. Downtown will absolutely boom. There will be perhaps half as many abandoned buildings in 3 years downtown. The loft/condo demand will carry this. The East Riverfront will be an exciting new frontier. Infill in Brush Park and just west of Woodward will continue in earnest. Other than that, Detroit neighborhoods will only see spotty gentrification thanks mainly to investors (for instance I see a fresh interest in restoring homes in West Village/East Grand Blvd/Cadillac Blvd.,) I am also hopeful for major infil plans coming to reality in Brightmoor on the far west, and the far East side between St. Jean and Alter.

-Somewhere between 2010 and 2020 we hit a brick wall; gasoline prices will be high enough to change everyone's mind about driving, but the transformation to alternative fuel (mass produced hybrids and hydrogen distribution systems) will lag 5-10 years behind. This, combined with a continued change in attitudes about the city will transform most metros, and our region, immensely. We will be forced into an era of new industry and new energy solutions, new attitudes, and new population patterns. It will be tough for several years, but will be something that helps the City in the end.

Wildcards to worry about:
-we can't let Detroit falter in creating a new image, thus causing educated people inclined to urban life to continue to largely move to other major cities.
-the fate of immigration policy over the next year or two. For once, I think most on this forum will have to admit that if Mr. Bush gets his way American cities will be better off.
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Thecarl
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Username: Thecarl

Post Number: 690
Registered: 04-2005
Posted From: 69.14.30.175
Posted on Thursday, April 13, 2006 - 7:34 pm: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

there is only one thing to consider:

the schools
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Tomoh
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Username: Tomoh

Post Number: 150
Registered: 11-2004
Posted From: 68.40.176.163
Posted on Thursday, April 13, 2006 - 10:24 pm: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Eastsidedog, yes, internal movement within the region, but whereas you think the big loser will be the inner ring burbs, I'm really hoping it's the current exurbs, Livingston County, with the causes being high gas prices, continued Fed interest rate hikes leading to a massive drop in new construction by the big developers, and a new regional transit option. However I do think west Wayne County will continue to sprawl due to proximity to Ann Arbor. Inner ring burbs like Royal Oak and Ferndale could do well with urban, Woodward Corridor-centric agendas.

Mackinaw, I agree with your point 3 about CoD. In Greater Downtown, the CBD, Midtown and the East Riverfront will each see thousands of new residents and New Center, Eastern Market, and Corktown will see hundreds if not a few thousand new residents. Other residential neighborhoods on the north side of East Jefferson (especially adjacent to IV and East Riverfront developments), in Southwest Detroit (depending somewhat on federal immigration policy), along Grand River, and the northern and eastern borders of Hamtramck will see healthy growth.

It's impossible to guess where things will go after five years or so. My guess is there will be new names for neighborhoods in a Greater Downtown with expanded borders and it's possible that residential neighborhoods near here with existing housing stock will gentrify rapidly, with complete transformations happening within a year's time. Or things could continue progressing at a slow pace.

Another wildcard to think about: will TechTown and Detroit really jump on the next energy industry, or any new industry. It'll require retaining what educated talent the city DOES produce.
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Mackinaw
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Username: Mackinaw

Post Number: 1371
Registered: 02-2005
Posted From: 141.213.173.94
Posted on Thursday, April 13, 2006 - 10:46 pm: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Great points, and I hope your speculation on what will happen to the neighborhoods is true.

Thecarl, this is most true, and critical for all of Detroit to turn the corner. In our circumstances, we'll have to accept that improvement in schools will lag behind us first attaining a critical mass of new residents, prefereably mid-high income, albiet often without kids, so that our tax base situation will improve. When this occurs, the state will need to re-assess its school funding scheme, so that the fresh money pumped into Detroit will stay in Detroit (we all know about the quirks of prop A), and then the schools will probably see noticeable improvement and actual families will be attracted into the city. Of course having some pioneer families before this time who will take the lead in making the schools better (because we also need a critical mass of interested and active parents to improve schools) will speed this process.
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Lmichigan
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Username: Lmichigan

Post Number: 3523
Registered: 10-2003
Posted From: 67.172.95.197
Posted on Thursday, April 13, 2006 - 11:44 pm: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

No, I don't believe it's just "the schools." People will put up with horrible schools if an economy is booming (i.e. Las Vegas, NV). If Detroit becomes the some kind of technological powerhouses, again, people will move in regardless of the current state of the school system. Las Vegas is a perfect example of all of the extra crap people are willing to put up with if they believe the place they are moving to has good jobs, and is "going places." They will sacrifice all types of quality of life issues if the price is right. Simply put, Detroit is missing a significant economy. If a way is found to bring one back, people will follow, regardless of the state of the public school system in that city.
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Tomoh
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Username: Tomoh

Post Number: 151
Registered: 11-2004
Posted From: 68.40.176.163
Posted on Friday, April 14, 2006 - 12:43 am: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Vegas you say? Hmm... if only Detroit had casinos...
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Iheartthed
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Username: Iheartthed

Post Number: 13
Registered: 04-2006
Posted From: 141.213.67.45
Posted on Friday, April 14, 2006 - 4:50 pm: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

That msn article is talking about the metro area as a whole, not the city of Detroit.

I'm interpreting the OP as speaking about the city specifically. But either way, that article is basically saying the suburbs are really the ones who should be worried, because suburban prices have defined the market here for a few decades now.
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Eastsidedog
Member
Username: Eastsidedog

Post Number: 241
Registered: 03-2006
Posted From: 68.252.69.100
Posted on Sunday, April 16, 2006 - 11:22 am: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)


quote:

Eastsidedog, yes, internal movement within the region, but whereas you think the big loser will be the inner ring burbs, I'm really hoping it's the current exurbs,



Tomoh, IMO the inner ring suburbs without downtowns are the ones that will decline. The older generations and young politically-conservative families will continue a mass exodus to the exurbs in pursuit of open space, peace and quiet, a "country lifestyle", "less traffic" and the homogenous community they desire. Those who cannot afford to move to the exurbs, the older, more blue collar and less educated will remain in slowly declining bedroom suburbs (I'll be nice and not name names).

At the same time, Middle-class Detroit families will continue their exodus to the inner-ring bedroom communities to enjoy better schools, retail, and suburban housing options, while still being near to the city where their older, more blue-collar, and less educated relatives will remain.

I agree RO and Ferndale, as well as the rest of the woodward corridor, will do well as they fill a need for a lower-risk but also less urban alternative to slowly resurging Detroit.


quote:

it's possible that residential neighborhoods near here with existing housing stock will gentrify rapidly, with complete transformations happening within a year's time. Or things could continue progressing at a slow pace.




Without an ecomonic boom and resulting population growth, it will continue very slowly at it's current pace. In 2007/2008 the pace will pick up a bit when the economy stabilizes.


quote:

Wildcards to worry about:
-we can't let Detroit falter in creating a new image, thus causing educated people inclined to urban life to continue to largely move to other major cities.
-the fate of immigration policy over the next year or two. For once, I think most on this forum will have to admit that if Mr. Bush gets his way American cities will be better off.




On the first point, there will always be those for whom Detroit is just too much outside their comfort zone. Plus there is a strong desire for young people to move away, family and freinds are what keep many here, but jobs draw many away. But many will return, and hopefully consider Detroit as an option. As the city improves and the risk is reduced, the prices will also go up.

Bush's Immigration plan, it seems will ultimately benefit the city and bring more immigration, exactly what Detroit needs.

Regarding the schools, I don't see them getting better anytime soon. Detroit will be a magnet for DINKs and Gays for a very long time IMO. Not until the middle-class family exodus runs its course and the DINKs start having kids in large numbers will the schools improve. The decliing enrollent of middle-class students is a big part of the problem. I'd plan on private schools for some time.

As far as Techtown, hopefully it will make an impact. Detroit needs a diverse economy to see growth realized. Don't know if those scientists are going to be more DINK-inclined or conservative-exurban-family inclined.

(Message edited by eastsidedog on April 16, 2006)

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