Discuss Detroit Ľ Archives - Beginning January 2006 Ľ Windsor: largest city in Metro Detroit? ę Previous Next Ľ
Top of pageBottom of page

Upinottawa
Member
Username: Upinottawa

Post Number: 360
Registered: 09-2005
Posted From: 198.103.184.76
Posted on Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 11:51 am: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Windsor's population is predicted to hit 615,000 to 700,000 by 2050 according to a PhD thesis on immigration and population growth in Canada. Those numbers would make Windsor the largest city in the Metro area when one factors in Detroit's expected population losses and recovery.

Metro Windsor, anyone?

What impact, if any, will this have on the Metro Detroit/Windsor area?

Here is the relevant portion of Deb Matthews' thesis. The entire thesis can be found at http://www.debmatthews.onmpp.c a/PhD_Thesis.pdf

4.6.5 Windsor

Windsor is one of the big surprises of this study, since, under the medium immigration scenario, it is the second-fastest growing CMA in Canada, just behind Calgary and ahead of Toronto. It is projected to almost double in size over the next 50 years if current trends continue.

Under the medium immigration projection, Windsorís population is projected to grow from 316,000 in 2001 to almost 616,000 in 2051. The growth is projected to occur at all ages (Figure 4.11). If immigration levels were reduced to 50,000, Windsor would still grow by 70 percent to 538,000, and if immigration levels were increased to 400,000, Windsorís population would grow by 115 percent to close to 700,000 people.

The largest source of Windsorís growth is international migration, which, in the initial year of the projection, adds almost 10 people per thousand to its population. This growth is compounded by strong internal migration of almost seven per thousand and natural increase of close to four per thousand.

Windsor has slightly more than its share of immigrants overall. While Windsor represents just over 1 percent of Canadaís population, it is home to 1.25 percent of Canadaís immigrants, one quarter of whom are from Southern Europe. Other regions with large communities in Windsor are West Central Asia and the Middle East (12.8 percent of immigrants in Windsor), and Eastern Europe (11.2 percent). Windsor holds a disproportionate attraction for people born in West Central Asia and the Middle East, having become home to almost three times the numbers that would be expected given its population. People born in Southern Europe and in the USA are also drawn to Windsor in numbers greater than expected.

Recent immigrants have been attracted to Windsor in even greater numbers than immigrants overall, and represent 3.2 percent of Windsorís population, compared to 2.0 percent of Canadaís population. About one-fifth of Windsorís recent immigrants were born in West Central Asia and the Middle East, and another fifth in Southern Asia. Eastern Asia, Southern Europe and Eastern Europe also have significant communities of recent immigrants in Windsor.

Windsor is a particularly strong draw for recent immigrants from specific regions of the world. Almost 5 percent of recent immigrants in Canada from the USA live in Windsor, Southern Europe (over 4 percent), and West Central Asia and the Middle East (over 3 percent). While Windsor attracts immigrants from a wide range of regions, it attracts fewer than its share from the Caribbean and Bermuda, Central and South America, and North and West Europe.

As mentioned above, Windsor attracts a significant number of people from within Canada. Of the 26 CMAs, Windsor ranks number four in its rate of internal migration. Far more of those come from within Ontario (5.1 per thousand) than from other provinces (1.6 per thousand).

Windsor also benefits from natural increase until very close to 2041, when there will be a slight loss of 0.2 per thousand population, making it third in Canada, behind Calgary at 1.9 and Toronto at 0.6 per thousand.

All age groups increase in size over the projection period under all four scenarios, however, the increases are greatest in the older age groups. While the under-25 age group is projected to increase by 60 percent under the medium immigration scenario, the 65 and over age group is projected to come close to tripling between 2001 and 2051, with the largest increases at the highest ages.

As we have seen elsewhere, the age structure of Windsor is little affected by immigration levels. Over the projection period, the under-25 group will decline from 34 percent to 27 percent, the 25-64 age group will be relatively unchanged at about 55 percent, but the 65 and over age group will substantially increase from 12 percent to 18 percent.

The population pyramid for females in Windsor shows projected increases in all ages throughout the 50 years of the projection, with the 30 to 55-year old age bracket remaining the largest age group.

Windsor is one CMA that is well-positioned to have steady growth in the future. It has become an attractive destination for newcomers to Canada and still attracts substantial numbers from within Canada. That combination keeps its population relatively young, and for the next 35 years or so, is expected to benefit from natural increase. Unlike many Canadian cities of its size, Windsorís greatest challenge may be to manage the growth that is projected.
Top of pageBottom of page

Gistok
Member
Username: Gistok

Post Number: 2082
Registered: 08-2004
Posted From: 4.229.3.170
Posted on Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 11:57 am: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Upinottawa.... are you comparing METRO Windsor with CITY Detroit? Apples and oranges.... either compare city with city or Metro area with Metro area.
Top of pageBottom of page

Blitz
Member
Username: Blitz

Post Number: 160
Registered: 09-2004
Posted From: 72.139.243.118
Posted on Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 12:09 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

The thesis is talking about Metro Windsor. But with the way Ontario handles annexations, I wouldn't be surprised if sometime within the next 50 years, the province will order the city to annex all the suburbs.
Top of pageBottom of page

Danny
Member
Username: Danny

Post Number: 4108
Registered: 02-2004
Posted From: 141.217.174.229
Posted on Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 12:11 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Deb Matthews is right on her thesis. Over the past 10 years Windsor had went from pop of 180,000 to over 200,000 people. A good ecomonic socialist base, extreme reduced violent crime, a lack of street drug cultures and rise in immigration had made Windsor what it is today. This sudden population change will make KING KWAME, the city "CLOWNSIL" and the black communities in Detroit very jealous. Some of them may even think about going over there to grab the opportuntity. Windsor's urban population growth will cause outside suburbs ( what's left of it) to be annexed making it bigger than Detroit. Imagine, by 2050, all of Detroit will marvel at Windsor's crystal city metropolis. While poor Detroit will be dark. The Windsorite would problably said "NOW IT'S OUR TURN TO BE THE NEXT DETROIT, AND WE KEEP YOU FILTHY AMERICANS ESPECIALLY THE BLACK FOLKS OUT!"

(Message edited by danny on May 11, 2006)
Top of pageBottom of page

Apbest
Member
Username: Apbest

Post Number: 40
Registered: 03-2006
Posted From: 68.40.65.66
Posted on Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 12:18 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

ummm...are you sarcastically criticizing Windsor or just being racist and ignorant?
Top of pageBottom of page

Gistok
Member
Username: Gistok

Post Number: 2083
Registered: 08-2004
Posted From: 4.229.3.170
Posted on Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 12:18 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Again, I have a problem with measurements like this. If Detroit were to annex all its' suburbs, it would be the 2nd largest city in the USA. A rather skewered comparison because it would still be the 5th or 6th largest metro area.

Also.... Windsor is almost NEVER included in any official tally of the metro Detroit population.
Top of pageBottom of page

Blitz
Member
Username: Blitz

Post Number: 161
Registered: 09-2004
Posted From: 72.139.243.118
Posted on Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 12:22 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

People are confusing the city and metro population numbers. These are the actual numbers:

City
1991: 192,000
2001: 208,000

Metro
1991: 265,000
2001: 307,000
Top of pageBottom of page

Upinottawa
Member
Username: Upinottawa

Post Number: 361
Registered: 09-2005
Posted From: 198.103.184.76
Posted on Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 12:51 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Okay, I realize there is an apples and oranges thing going on here. If Greater Windsor's population hits 700,000, approx. 500,000 of that population will be in the city proper with the present boundaries.

If Windsor were to annex its adjacent suburbs that number would be over 600,000 (BTW, Windsor was the only major Ontario city not to absorb its suburbs in the 1990s).

I realize that Detroit's boundaries have stayed stagnant for years.

Detroit proper has seen a steady continued decline in its population, although I am not sure where it will bottom out before rebounding. Hopefully, the decline will stall sooner than later.

All in all, Windsor's population will likely start to rival the City of Detroit's population. I am not making any political statement's here and I will always consider Detroit proper as the most important city in the Metro area. However, in 50 years Windsor proper and Detroit proper may become 1a and 1b in terms of population per municipality.
Top of pageBottom of page

Everyman
Member
Username: Everyman

Post Number: 58
Registered: 11-2005
Posted From: 24.136.14.239
Posted on Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 12:59 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

i am too lazy to google. how many sq. mi./km is windsor (currently)?
Top of pageBottom of page

Blitz
Member
Username: Blitz

Post Number: 162
Registered: 09-2004
Posted From: 72.139.243.118
Posted on Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 12:59 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

The city proper is 42 square miles

(Message edited by Blitz on May 11, 2006)
Top of pageBottom of page

Everyman
Member
Username: Everyman

Post Number: 59
Registered: 11-2005
Posted From: 24.136.14.239
Posted on Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 1:01 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

detroit's like 140, right?

i think a comparison including windsor's suburbs might be appropriate. focusing on absolute numbers may be foolish, in this case.
Top of pageBottom of page

Blitz
Member
Username: Blitz

Post Number: 163
Registered: 09-2004
Posted From: 72.139.243.118
Posted on Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 1:54 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

The estimated metro population for 2005 is 332,000. Seems odd that people keep moving to Windsor from across Ontario and immigrants keep pouring in, all depsite the job woes and stagnant local economy.
Top of pageBottom of page

Upinottawa
Member
Username: Upinottawa

Post Number: 362
Registered: 09-2005
Posted From: 198.103.184.76
Posted on Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 3:31 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

The question that must be answered is: what are all those new people going to do for work?

The automotive industry will continue to be important but cannot be relied upon to create loads of new jobs.

Windsor will need to introduce new industries or substantially increase the size of existing industries, i.e. health care.

Of course, in 40 years with Detroit making a strong comeback, Windsor may benefit from being a stone's throw from a hip, modern, and accessible Detroit.

In 40 years there may be freedom of labour between the United States and Canada in the context of a security perimetre and a customs union. There may be private health care in Canada where new Windsor hospitals will provide services for pay to Detroit-side residents and people from London, Ontario....
Top of pageBottom of page

Fastcarsfreedom
Member
Username: Fastcarsfreedom

Post Number: 43
Registered: 11-2005
Posted From: 67.71.57.186
Posted on Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 4:07 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

The recent growth in Windsor's population from 180,000 to 200,000 is actually more-or-less a recovery of population which was lost by the city during the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s. Resurgence in the auto and hospitality industries accounted for much of this renewed growth.
Top of pageBottom of page

Blitz
Member
Username: Blitz

Post Number: 165
Registered: 09-2004
Posted From: 72.139.243.118
Posted on Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 4:29 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

That explains the growth in the city proper (which has floundered around 200k for 30 years).

But it doesn't really account for the metro growth which has been growing at one of the fastest rates in Canada over the past 10-15 years.
Top of pageBottom of page

1953
Member
Username: 1953

Post Number: 819
Registered: 12-2004
Posted From: 209.104.146.146
Posted on Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 5:23 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

I don't buy any of this.
Top of pageBottom of page

Upinottawa
Member
Username: Upinottawa

Post Number: 364
Registered: 09-2005
Posted From: 70.28.0.197
Posted on Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 5:34 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

I am not sure what there is to buy. A lot will depend on what level the population of Detroit proper will drop to. I hope Detroit does not dip below 500,000 (does anyone have any projections?), but if it does Windsor may end up being the largest city in the area.

The fact is that Metro Detroit has stagnated in terms of population and the Windsor area continues to grow.

If and when it does happen, maybe the Red Wings will move back....
Top of pageBottom of page

Iheartthed
Member
Username: Iheartthed

Post Number: 63
Registered: 04-2006
Posted From: 68.40.50.194
Posted on Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 6:32 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

But isn't the non-automotive component of Windsor's economy largely dependent on local tourism from the Detroit side? I can't imagine a club scene large enough to support that type of population...
Top of pageBottom of page

Upinottawa
Member
Username: Upinottawa

Post Number: 365
Registered: 09-2005
Posted From: 70.28.0.197
Posted on Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 6:53 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

As in any city, tourism is important to Windsor's economy. Detroit-based tourism makes up a significant portion of that tourism. For example, Casino Windsor is one of the city's largest employers.

If these population numbers start to play out, hopefully downtown Windsor will be able to diversify beyond its current club scene....
Top of pageBottom of page

Blitz
Member
Username: Blitz

Post Number: 166
Registered: 09-2004
Posted From: 72.139.243.118
Posted on Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 7:30 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

We're seeing some good things happening with the new medical school, the continued expansion of the University of Windsor, and investments in automotive research. You never know...if everything clicks, these next 20 years could see Windsor really break out.
Top of pageBottom of page

Tomoh
Member
Username: Tomoh

Post Number: 179
Registered: 11-2004
Posted From: 24.148.60.142
Posted on Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 9:57 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

What would people from a little over 50 years ago have predicted for Detroit's population today? Making predictions for 2016 is hard enough. I try not to put too much faith in those for five decades from now.

However, I do see Windsor growing in the future. The economy will have to figure out how to make that happen. Some of it will depend on the health of stateside Metro Detroit. And a gondola wouldn't hurt.
Top of pageBottom of page

Ray
Member
Username: Ray

Post Number: 692
Registered: 06-2004
Posted From: 68.42.220.37
Posted on Friday, May 12, 2006 - 2:42 am: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

I wish Metro D would more effectively leverage its relationship with Windsor. It's a tremendous opportunity for both cities.
Top of pageBottom of page

1953
Member
Username: 1953

Post Number: 821
Registered: 12-2004
Posted From: 209.104.146.146
Posted on Friday, May 12, 2006 - 10:09 am: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

SEMCOG is predicting Detroit's population will level out to 865,623 by 2030.

(Check out the data/community profiles section of their website for more)
Top of pageBottom of page

Danny
Member
Username: Danny

Post Number: 4118
Registered: 02-2004
Posted From: 141.217.173.176
Posted on Friday, May 12, 2006 - 10:17 am: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

And if Detroit stands its population of 865,623 in 2030. than it MUST be sudden ethnic growth, new jobs and a new trend that is comming to Detroit. By that decade, most blacks would be living in the inner ring suburbs, The ethnic Arabs Muslims, East Indians, Pakistanis and Benglashis, Mexicans and Hispanic would have the piece of Detroit's ghettohoods and many whites would see Detroit as a sowing seed possibility to raise their 1st kid and then moved on to the ex-urbs.

(Message edited by danny on May 12, 2006)
Top of pageBottom of page

Upinottawa
Member
Username: Upinottawa

Post Number: 366
Registered: 09-2005
Posted From: 198.103.184.76
Posted on Friday, May 12, 2006 - 10:31 am: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Isn't Detroit's population in that ballpark now? I understand that Danny's model (to some degree) is very likely with significant numbers of younger educated people moving to downtown/midtown and surrounding areas with a more significant number of people leaving the neighbourhoods outside the Woodward corridor for inner ring suburbs. The result would be a net loss of population, but a net gain in average income, education level, and development in the repopuated areas.

SEMCOG's numbers may be politically-tinged, although it is hard to argue that SEMCOG has a Detroit-bias....
Top of pageBottom of page

Esd
Member
Username: Esd

Post Number: 1
Registered: 05-2006
Posted From: 160.109.103.190
Posted on Friday, May 12, 2006 - 1:28 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Can a city that is located in another country really be part of metro Detroit?
Top of pageBottom of page

Upinottawa
Member
Username: Upinottawa

Post Number: 370
Registered: 09-2005
Posted From: 198.103.184.76
Posted on Friday, May 12, 2006 - 2:23 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Esd, of course. Windsor is definitely in Detroit's "sphere of influence".

Metropolitan area
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A metropolitan area is a large population center consisting of a large city and its adjacent zone of influence, or of several neighboring cities or towns and adjoining areas, with one or more large cities serving as its hub or hubs.

A metropolitan area usually combines an agglomeration (the contiguous built-up area) with peripheral zones not themselves necessarily urban in character, but closely bound to the centre by employment or commerce; these zones are also sometimes known as a commuter belt, and may extend well beyond the urban periphery depending on the definition used.

The core cities in a polycentric metropolitan area need not be physically connected by continuous built-up development, distinguishing the concept from conurbation, which requires urban contiguity. In a metropolitan area, it is sufficient that central cities together constitute a large population nucleus with which other constituent parts have a high degree of integration.

In practice the parameters of metropolitan areas, in both official and unofficial usage, are not consistent. Sometimes they are little different from an urban area, and in other cases they cover broad regions that have little relation to the traditional concept of a city as a single urban settlement. Thus all metropolitan area figures should be treated as interpretations rather than as hard facts. Metro area population figures given by different sources for the same place can vary by millions, and there is a tendency for people to promote the highest figure available for their own "city". However the most ambitious metropolitan area population figures are often better seen as the population of a "metropolitan region" than of a "city".
Top of pageBottom of page

Esd
Member
Username: Esd

Post Number: 2
Registered: 05-2006
Posted From: 160.109.103.190
Posted on Friday, May 12, 2006 - 3:39 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

I agree that Windsor is in Detroit's "sphere of influence" but how can you consider a city that is in another country part of the Detroit Metro area?

(Message edited by esd on May 12, 2006)
Top of pageBottom of page

Upinottawa
Member
Username: Upinottawa

Post Number: 372
Registered: 09-2005
Posted From: 198.103.184.76
Posted on Friday, May 12, 2006 - 4:17 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Esd, I am not sure exactly what you mean. A Metropolis does not appear to be limited by political boundaries, i.e. municipal, state, etc., so I do not see why an international boundary would prevent a contiguous city from being part of a Metropolis where the central city is in another country.

Certainly, Windsor is not in Detroit's US Census area because Windsor is not part of the US. Detroit is not included in Windsor's StatsCan stats either. However, there does not seem to be any formal membership requirement to be part of a Metropolitan area.

However, listing the Detroit area's population while excluding the adjacent Canadian population does not give a complete picture as to the actual population of the region.
Top of pageBottom of page

Blitz
Member
Username: Blitz

Post Number: 168
Registered: 09-2004
Posted From: 72.139.243.118
Posted on Friday, May 12, 2006 - 4:30 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Being in two different countries does matter. Windsor has its own metro area and its own dependent suburbs. What we call the international metropolis is two metropolitan areas side-by-side.

If Windsor was not in a different country, it wouldn't function so much as its own metro area since there would me more of a connection with Detroit. It would be more like the Illinois side of the St. Louis metro with sprawl extending for many many miles.
Top of pageBottom of page

Esd
Member
Username: Esd

Post Number: 3
Registered: 05-2006
Posted From: 160.109.103.190
Posted on Friday, May 12, 2006 - 4:32 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

The Detroit Metro area is made up on 3 counties, Wayne, Oakland and Macomb. Ask people here in Detroit if they consider Windsor part of the Detroit area and most of the people you ask will say "No".
Top of pageBottom of page

Upinottawa
Member
Username: Upinottawa

Post Number: 373
Registered: 09-2005
Posted From: 198.103.184.76
Posted on Friday, May 12, 2006 - 4:35 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Esd, that's okay. We can leave it there.

Actually, I want to avoid someone posting a thread asking if Ann Arbor is a suburb of Detroit....
Top of pageBottom of page

Tomoh
Member
Username: Tomoh

Post Number: 180
Registered: 11-2004
Posted From: 24.148.60.142
Posted on Friday, May 12, 2006 - 5:04 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

The Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area of Ann Arbor-Detroit-Flint as defined by the US Census Bureau in 2000 is made up of considerably more than three counties. Of course, neither the US nor Canada are going to define an Area that lies outside of either country's boundaries. However, I think many of us know people who commute across this international border every day, which is one reason why it is considered an international metropolis. What we call the Ann Arbor-Detroit-Flint metro area is also just the Detroit primary statistical area, the Ann Arbor area, and the Flint area all side by side.

All of these smaller areas could stand to benefit from the synergy that would result from stronger integration with the core and each other.
Top of pageBottom of page

Upinottawa
Member
Username: Upinottawa

Post Number: 374
Registered: 09-2005
Posted From: 198.103.184.76
Posted on Friday, May 12, 2006 - 5:10 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

^ I could not agree more, Tomoh.

The international border creates problems, i.e. delays, cuts people off from each other, etc. However, it also presents great opportunity. The entire region would benefit from greater integration.
Top of pageBottom of page

1953
Member
Username: 1953

Post Number: 822
Registered: 12-2004
Posted From: 209.104.146.146
Posted on Friday, May 12, 2006 - 5:14 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

The Design Regional Detroit plan being spearheaded by the Detroit Regional Chamber of Commerce is focusing on the ten county metropolitan area, which includes Ann Arbor and Flint, though not Windsor.
Top of pageBottom of page

Blitz
Member
Username: Blitz

Post Number: 169
Registered: 09-2004
Posted From: 72.139.243.118
Posted on Friday, May 12, 2006 - 5:36 pm: ††Edit PostDelete Post†††Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Unfortunately they're just going to get further apart in the coming years when this idiotic passport plan goes through.

Add Your Message Here
Posting is currently disabled in this topic. Contact your discussion moderator for more information.