  Zulu_warrior Member Username: Zulu_warrior Post Number: 2149 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 68.251.27.41 |
This was posted on February 18, 2005 ------------------------------ ---------- [This is a part of a three part series, detailing how each major candidate can win the Mayoral Election.] Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick is reelected mayor in one of the three following scenarios: 1) Mayor Kilpatrick wins through to the primary based on negative campaigning against Hendrix that limits the newcomer's ability to broaden his message. McPhail in the run off is sorely weak as the anti- Council vote engulfs her as well. This tie bar to the current council is fueled by community activists who do such a great job of dismembering council members that seek relection that McPhail falters more than she should and gives ground to the mayor. The Mayor is marginally aided by a safe summer, the major events down town and the impending superbowl. In the run off against McPhail, the ABK vote is divided. McPhail has not effectively convinced the Hendrix supporters to support her and they cast ballots for the Mayor, but most do not vote for anyone. The ABK vote becomes more of an anybody but the current council vote (ABCC), ulimately allowing Mayor Kilpatrick to win by one of the narrowest margins in history. 2) Mayor Kilpatrick wins through to the primary as the undecided vote is split between he and Hendrix, as the contentious council (ABCC) backlash consumes McPhail in the primary. Hendrix doesnt win over the support of McPhail supporters who dont cast votes for mayor instead of voting with Hendrix, splitting the ABK vote again. Better financing, and a tenativeness by the business sector to change horses midstream allows Kilpatrick to narrowly defeat Hendrix in the general election. 3) A major calamity occurs with in Detroit- natural disaster or terrorist attack- which allows Mayor Kilpatrick to divert media attention away from past scandals to life safety issues, giving him a platform to stand tall on and change hearts and minds. His competitors find less fervor to oust the mayor while he handles this crisis and in fact some say that he has finally "grown up in office". Mayor Kilpatrick wins a second term. Ultimately, Mayor Kilpatrick is elected for the following reason: 1) Lack of consolidation of the ABK vote behind one candidate, due to contentions sniping of between McPhail and Hendrix in the primary election season. The diminishment of either Hendrix or McPhail over minor things (such as the school board take over, the chair incident, and council squabling) ruins the ability to consolidate behind one candidate. ------------------------------ ------------------- Now that Hurricane Katrina has caused the devastation in New Orleans, the possibility exists that scenario #3 could play a role in the November election. Mayor Kilpatrick's offer to the evacuees to come to Detroit was a grand gesture and meant to reach those that are caught in the emotion of the Gulf Tragedy. The improvement of the posture of Rudy Guiliani in the wake of 9/11 was a lesson to elected officials across the nation: Be brave in the face of danger, and do so publicly. Only time will tell if this will register with voters or not.... | ||
Fnemecek Member Username: Fnemecek Post Number: 935 Registered: 12-2004 Posted From: 69.212.54.57 |
Whether or not this registers with voters will also depend largely on how well he is able to execute his hurricane relief efforts. If said efforts go well, they could go well for him. However, if it becomes a botched effort, it could quickly work against him. Anything involving Hurricane Katrina will automatically involve more media attention. With that said, I will give the Mayor and his staff credit for one thing. Their decision to stage the hurricane relief press conference with the Spirit of Detroit statue in the background was a stroke of PR genius. |
