  Naturalsister Member Username: Naturalsister Post Number: 310 Registered: 11-2004 Posted From: 69.212.122.222 |
That's my prediction; I'm putting it out there. later - naturalsister | ||
Jmil Member Username: Jmil Post Number: 1388 Registered: 12-2003 Posted From: 69.215.76.234 |
LOL - yeah, sure, right. Let me guess, pain killers. | ||
Naturalsister Member Username: Naturalsister Post Number: 314 Registered: 11-2004 Posted From: 69.212.122.222 |
McPhail 12% Clarke 9% Those folks have to go to someone's column. Am I the only one that lies to the exit pollers just so that they can be wrong? Later - naturalsister | ||
Goat Member Username: Goat Post Number: 7334 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 64.228.197.51 |
Clarke endorsed Hendrix. Who has (or has she yet) MacPhail endorsed? Either way it is political suicide for her. | ||
Fnemecek Member Username: Fnemecek Post Number: 1007 Registered: 12-2004 Posted From: 69.219.103.216 |
November 8 of what year? (Message edited by fnemecek on September 15, 2005) | ||
Naturalsister Member Username: Naturalsister Post Number: 316 Registered: 11-2004 Posted From: 69.212.122.222 |
Could you F*?@%#!s just have fun and post your percentage predictions? later - naturalsister (Message edited by naturalsister on September 15, 2005) | ||
Quinn Member Username: Quinn Post Number: 546 Registered: 01-2005 Posted From: 64.139.64.80 |
kwame 45 hendrix 46 | ||
Jmil Member Username: Jmil Post Number: 1389 Registered: 12-2003 Posted From: 69.215.76.234 |
Hendrix 55 Kilpatrick 5-10 (years) | ||
Jonesy Member Username: Jonesy Post Number: 49 Registered: 07-2005 Posted From: 68.73.207.253 |
Kilpatrick 6'4" 280lbs Hendrix 6'2" 215lbs Kwame wins by 2 inches and 65 pounds | ||
Brian Member Username: Brian Post Number: 3089 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 67.37.84.166 |
Judging by how angry Helmut's folks are I would say that the election is very close. Not a sure sign of a winner. | ||
Fnemecek Member Username: Fnemecek Post Number: 1008 Registered: 12-2004 Posted From: 69.212.227.32 |
Hendrix: 58 Kilpatrick: 42 Brian: 0 | ||
1honey Member Username: 1honey Post Number: 620 Registered: 02-2005 Posted From: 208.39.170.77 |
Jmil, I like those numbers. Fnemecek, I like those numbers as well. I think someone is still mad that their candidate didn't make the cut. Happy Friday  | ||
Naturalsister Member Username: Naturalsister Post Number: 319 Registered: 11-2004 Posted From: 69.212.122.222 |
R O F L M A O !!!!! Good one Jmil. later - naturalsister | ||
Fnemecek Member Username: Fnemecek Post Number: 1013 Registered: 12-2004 Posted From: 68.255.244.112 |
So, if we were nice and calm about not being able to get a cop when we call 9-1-1 then what would that mean? | ||
Gistok Member Username: Gistok Post Number: 1163 Registered: 08-2004 Posted From: 4.229.72.83 |
FH - 55% KK - 45% FH will get 95% of the white vote. The black vote will be split 50-50. And with white voters traditionally showing up at the polls (percentage wise) in greater numbers, it could go even higher for FH. Even though they represent only 9% of voters in Detroit, whites represented 32% of the vote in the primaries (according to the Black Slate). Although that number will be smaller in November, white voters could still represent 20% of the vote. That will be a big obstacle for KK to overcome, since he cannot use the race card with white Detroiters. (Message edited by gistok on September 16, 2005) | ||
Wcpo_intern Member Username: Wcpo_intern Post Number: 1714 Registered: 04-2004 Posted From: 65.31.69.174 |
Are you saying that the asians and hispanics have a 0% turnout or are you just saying that their votes won't count? | ||
Bratt Member Username: Bratt Post Number: 243 Registered: 01-2004 Posted From: 70.225.216.229 |
I know you have all missed me...I haven't been posting too much lately, but that's because neither candidate has impressed me much. So there really isn't much to say. But I know that it is going to get going here in a little while. November really isn't that far away. I can't wait for all of the excitement to start. Since I am not with either candidate, man this is going to get good. Bring it on......... "IN THIS CORNER, WE HAVE BIG PIMPIN'...ALSO KNOWN AS BIG DIAMOND.......AND HIS OPPONENT....IN THIS CORNER, WE HAVE HELMUT, BUT DON'T CALL HIM THIS, IT'S JUST THE NAME HIS MOTHER GAVE HIM.......BETTER KNOWN TO SOME AS FREELOADER....ETC...ETC.." And the winner is.................... | ||
Gistok Member Username: Gistok Post Number: 1165 Registered: 08-2004 Posted From: 4.229.105.142 |
Whoa there Wpco_intern, I said no such thing. I just didn't go into every demographic under the sun. My mother is German (born there, and lives in Detroit). I didn't include the German vote either, nor the Arabic. I don't know the demographics about every ethnic group. So that's why I didn't mention them. I was just explaining my prediction, and generally explaining why KK won't win. | ||
Zulu_warrior Member Username: Zulu_warrior Post Number: 2184 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 68.251.27.41 |
<-----still really like natural sister. Hendrix - 57% Kilpatrick- 33% | ||
Zulu_warrior Member Username: Zulu_warrior Post Number: 2185 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 68.251.27.41 |
revising Bratt's ring call... "IN THIS CORNER, WE HAVE THE BIG MAN...EVERYONE'S HIS FAN...ALSO KNOWN AS LIL KK..YOU CAN TRUST WHAT HE SAYS(wink)....MALIK THE FREAK..ONLY THE BEST EATS.....MR. WILD PARTY.....HE'S READY TO HIT SOMEBODY.....HE'S NEVER BEEN ARRESTED...CAN'T BE BESTED....THE SEXY, WEST AFRICAN IRISHMAN KWAME KILPATRICK.... AND IN THIS CORNER.....THE SAILOR FROM THE NAVY....YES HIS HAIR IS WAVY....HAIL THE LION FROM JAMAICA...BUT HE WONT FAKE YA....HE'S LITTLE GERMAN....BUT TAX MONEY HE WONT BE BURNIN....HE DOESNT SHAKE OR SHIMMY......AND HE'S NOT JIMMY.....HE'S FREEEEEEEEMAN "TRY JAH LOVE" HENDRIX...... (Message edited by zulu warrior on September 19, 2005) | ||
Fnemecek Member Username: Fnemecek Post Number: 1026 Registered: 12-2004 Posted From: 69.213.205.127 |
Zulu: Who are you predicting the other 10 points will go to? | ||
The_aram Member Username: The_aram Post Number: 4136 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 141.213.175.233 |
Brian? | ||
Lowell Board Administrator Username: Lowell Post Number: 1650 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 66.167.210.60 |
Natural sister, I don't think it is going to happen, but that doesn't mean it can't. Barring some big skeleton coming out of Freeman's closet, this is his to lose. And I don't think he is sloppy enough to drop the ball. But then again I thought that about KK too. I will be really interested to see if there is any movement in the next poll. Bratt, welcome back. | ||
Supersport Member Username: Supersport Post Number: 8749 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 69.246.37.236 |
Hendrix 57% Kilpatrick 33% Gil Hill 10% for his role in the Beverly Hills Cop trilogy | ||
Lowell Board Administrator Username: Lowell Post Number: 1653 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 66.167.210.60 |
Freman has one challenging problem, giving people a reason to vote for him as opposed to just being the the ABK candidate. It is not enough to say so and so sucks so much that you have to vote for me. That almost worked for Kerry but in the end he didn't balance the reasons to vote for with the reasons to vote against. Freman is in a similar situation. Freman's campaign has to be wary of that pitfall because it has not done a lot to really grab people's visions to where they say, "Wow, this guy has great ideas and is going to take us up and up." I expect this race to narrow considerably. Even Supersport's only 57% vote for Freeman reflects that weakness. The 10% humor for Gil Hill shows an anxiety that the ABK thinking engenders. Why wouldn't that borderline go for Freeman? Because he hasn't given them enough to chew on. It ain't over yet. | ||
Fnemecek Member Username: Fnemecek Post Number: 1036 Registered: 12-2004 Posted From: 68.255.242.226 |
Sorry, Lowell, but that's just totally wrong. 57% isn't weak, it's freaking phenomenal. If Hendrix gets 57%, that means that Kilpatrick got no more than 43% - a 14% margin of victory. The majority of elections in this country, especially for the more meaningful offices, are decided by less than a 7% margin of victory. Almost all, are less than 10% In 2001, for example, we saw Kilpatrick elected with only 53% of the vote. That translates into a 6% margin of victory. In that context, saying that a predicted 14% margin of victory reflects weakness is a lot like saying that the New York Yankees are a weak baseball team because they've only won the World Series 3 times in the past 10 years.
Actually, I believe that 10% is more of a reference to another prediction a few posts up the thread. Zulu posted his prediction (Hendrix 57/ Kilpatrick 33) and I asked who he was giving the other 10 points to. (FYI - I suspect that this was simply a typo on Zulu's part, that he meant to say Hendrix 57/Kilpatrick 43 so the total equalled 100. Zulu, please feel free to chim in if I'm wrong.) Aram chimed in with a prediction that they'd go to Brian. SS said Gil Hill.
Actually, Hendrix has already given us a rather clear vision of what he'd do as mayor. http://fremanhendrix.com/intro duction.htm His plan for Detroit includes proposals for: * Restoring DPD's narcotic and gang units to full staffing levels; * Bringing NYC's "Broken Window" strategy to Detroit; * Reducing Detroit's inventory of stagnant properties; * Cutting Detroit's property tax rate by 10 mills.
On this, we agree. Benjamin Disraeli once remarked, "Two weeks is a long time in politics." Well, we have 7 weeks to go before the election. There are still two ways in which this election could radically turn. The first, and by far the most likely, is that Hendrix does something stupid. The other is that Kilpatrick manages a radical transformation of his Adiminstration. Polling data indicates that as many as 2/3 of voters feel that Detroit is headed in the wrong direction. If the Kilpatrick camp wants to continue playing in the political sandbox, they'll have to find a way to reverese that sentiment. | ||
Brian Member Username: Brian Post Number: 3111 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 67.37.84.140 |
That is a fair prediction Lowell. You are absolutely correct on what Freman has not done. He hasn't said anything and by that has not promised any results as a 'reward' for making his the next mayor. Folks say stick with the crook you know. As you said, they did it with Bush. Its why the school board thing still haunts Helmut, even among his supporters. They don't like KK but fear Helmut because in his first LEADERSHIP role, he blew it and then quit. (Sorta like the FEMA guy.) If DPS was winning awards or if the children were not ditching the system like its a sinking ship, Freman would be a shoe in and Sharon, Benny and others would not have even entered the race. But the DPS is in worst shape than the city's budget. Detroit's budget problems are fixed and 'normal'. Despite the Helmut supporters. But DPS is on the verge of collapse. Burnley destroyed the system. The Helmut supporters won't touch that because it will look bad for Helmut. (Also Helmut would like to break up the system into smaller districts saperate from each other anyway. He just won't say so publicly.) | ||
Lowell Board Administrator Username: Lowell Post Number: 1655 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 66.167.210.60 |
Frank, I'm not denying that Freman is in the driver's seat. As I said, it is his to lose from now on. The 57% is SS's guess and, if it were correct, would be a big win. However that is just a guess and means nothing. The fact that an ardent supporter would ascribe a 10% vote going eslewhere that to his opponent reflects some anxiety. [Why wouldn't it go to his wonderful candidate than to some meaningless name and increase the margin to 67%?] Freman has a good lead, but not a solid lead. When the race comes down to two there is a tendancy for things to narrow. In this case the anti-KK sentiment is outweighing the Pro-Freman sentiment as a reason to choose Freeman. Anti-somebody reasons for voting are well known to be very thin support, a lesser of two evils vote. If KK can turn some of that around, either by dragging Freman down to his level [Hey how about your wife innuendo stuff, etc.] or give more compelling reasons for voting for him than folks have for Freman, anything could happen. As I said above, I am looking forward with great interest at the next set of polls. If Freman hold his lead or gains, it probably all over for KK barring some miracle. If KK gains, it is going to be close and watch for the mud to really fly. | ||
The_aram Member Username: The_aram Post Number: 4155 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 141.213.175.233 |
Lowell, there's only one E in Freman. | ||
Fnemecek Member Username: Fnemecek Post Number: 1046 Registered: 12-2004 Posted From: 69.212.58.76 |
1. It wouldn't have complete the joke. (See post above.) 2. Realism. Getting more than 2/3 of a contested vote at this level is extremely rare.
Frankly, those allegations are just background noise. This is a race about the way the City is operated. I was at an informal conversation last night, where for 2 hours a group of 20 or so Detroit voters were invited to ask Mayor Kilpatrick any questions they wanted. There was 1 and only 1 question about the Mayor's personality asked. Everything else was a series of concerns about crime and city services (or lack thereof). This campaign ultimately boils down to three things: Kids, Cops and Clean. And that is why Hendrix will almost certainly become our next mayor. | ||
Ilovedetroit Member Username: Ilovedetroit Post Number: 1118 Registered: 02-2005 Posted From: 68.40.226.188 |
Remember in the primary there was LOW turnout. My guess is a number of McPhail supporters (mostly liberal whites/black/and activist blacks) will support Kilpatrick. However, there are still a good number undecided and a few that I know have gone to Hendrix. Hansen Clarkes people (that I know) are in the same boat mix of Hendrix and Clarke. Kilpatrick will work hard to turn out the african american voters who don't typically vote. He will also continue to court McPhail supporters until she makes IF she is supporting him. Don't get me wrong McPhail people are not in love with KK. However, they just have a VERY had time voting for Hendrix. He has very little appeal to most of us. We consider McPhail the progressive in the race. Hendrix is not progressive (he is seen as being very Republican). Kilpatrick can still win this. I have no predictions but I think he might beat Hendrix by a small percentage. During the presidential race there were 330,000 voters out there...for the primary there was 120,000 or so. Where are those 210,000 people and who are they supporting? | ||
1honey Member Username: 1honey Post Number: 649 Registered: 02-2005 Posted From: 208.39.170.77 |
I am an activist black and I am not supporting Kilpatrick. You really don't know how this election is going to end. Your crystal ball is foggy ILD. | ||
Ilovedetroit Member Username: Ilovedetroit Post Number: 1120 Registered: 02-2005 Posted From: 68.40.226.188 |
That may be the case Honey...Time will tell. I don't care to argue with anyone over who will or won't win. I don't feel that I have as much involved as before - my candidate did not make it. | ||
1honey Member Username: 1honey Post Number: 651 Registered: 02-2005 Posted From: 208.39.170.77 |
Yes, I am sorry ILD. But, you seem like you are working pretty hard for Kwame. Just messing with you . | ||
Ilovedetroit Member Username: Ilovedetroit Post Number: 1124 Registered: 02-2005 Posted From: 68.40.226.188 |
I would not say I am working hard for him...but I am not working against him. that is ok I don't mind a hard time...just ask Metro | ||
1honey Member Username: 1honey Post Number: 658 Registered: 02-2005 Posted From: 208.39.170.77 |
Paging Metro | ||
Ilovedetroit Member Username: Ilovedetroit Post Number: 1125 Registered: 02-2005 Posted From: 68.40.226.188 |
Oh don't that Harpy will fly in for another Greek Tragedy installment of Hendrix vs. Kilpatrick AKA as YUCK AND YUCKIER! | ||
Dfdems Member Username: Dfdems Post Number: 31 Registered: 04-2005 Posted From: 69.212.38.43 |
Just so you all know where I stand on the election..  | ||
Bcbud Member Username: Bcbud Post Number: 16 Registered: 08-2005 Posted From: 24.85.237.54 |
KK looks like he has no neck, he looks like a big shoulders with this head perched on the top | ||
Naturalsister Member Username: Naturalsister Post Number: 372 Registered: 11-2004 Posted From: 70.8.118.51 |
"Hey Lowell - Kwame by 7% on NOV 8th!" Posted on Thursday, September 15, 2005 - 4:18 pm: Edit PostDelete Post Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only) That's my prediction; I'm putting it out there. later - naturalsister What can I say? Maybe you all will start listening to me. later - the officially brilliant naturalsister | ||
Ilovedetroit Member Username: Ilovedetroit Post Number: 1598 Registered: 02-2005 Posted From: 63.149.5.130 |
Naturalsister - You are fabulous! | ||
Lowell Board Administrator Username: Lowell Post Number: 1874 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 66.167.210.171 |
Amen 'sis. And some guy named Lowell took scorn when he wrote above and elsewhere:
| ||
Naturalsister Member Username: Naturalsister Post Number: 375 Registered: 11-2004 Posted From: 70.8.118.51 |
Yep Lowell, My weakness is my opponent's strength. later - naturalsister | ||
Naturalsister Member Username: Naturalsister Post Number: 386 Registered: 11-2004 Posted From: 68.30.29.80 |
Interesting article: http://www.freep.com/news/metr o/dickerson11e_20051111.htm Sorry all, no fix is in. later - naturalsister | ||
Ilovedetroit Member Username: Ilovedetroit Post Number: 1639 Registered: 02-2005 Posted From: 63.149.5.130 |
Sorry it looks like the conspiracy theorist will just have to stick with "y'alls boy" | ||
Naturalsister Member Username: Naturalsister Post Number: 387 Registered: 11-2004 Posted From: 68.30.29.80 |
LOL, ILD later - NS |
