Discuss Detroit » Archives - Beginning January 2007 » Make your best educated guess « Previous Next »
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Yelloweyes
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Username: Yelloweyes

Post Number: 142
Registered: 02-2007
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 12:25 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

With Gas prices soaring with no end sight will:

A. Metro Detroit governments will come together and build a solid mass transit system.

B. Suburban Detroiters will move closer to the city center to avoid long commutes to work.

C. Metro Detroit Commuters will pay whatever the gas price and drive 30ish miles to work, even if it means going further into debt.

D. None of the above
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Fury13
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Username: Fury13

Post Number: 1706
Registered: 10-2003
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 12:26 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

I would say that "C" is most likely.
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El_jimbo
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Username: El_jimbo

Post Number: 178
Registered: 12-2006
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 12:26 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

C
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Gravitymachine
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Username: Gravitymachine

Post Number: 1678
Registered: 05-2005
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 12:33 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

C. with a caveat that SUV repos will climb in kind
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Miss_cleo
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Username: Miss_cleo

Post Number: 612
Registered: 05-2005
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 12:34 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Why do you think moving is an option? If the commute is too much for the people who already live there, then who is going to buy? and who can afford to move right now? and who wants their kids in the DPS system? YOu guys seem to think just picking up and moving is a viable option, it isnt for most people
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Detroitnerd
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Username: Detroitnerd

Post Number: 951
Registered: 07-2004
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 12:36 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

I dunno: Seems like picking up and moving has been our problem to everything for that last 60 years..
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Dougw
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Username: Dougw

Post Number: 1698
Registered: 11-2003
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 12:40 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

"C" with a little bit of "A".
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Pam
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Username: Pam

Post Number: 1643
Registered: 11-2005
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 12:44 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

quote:

Suburban Detroiters will move closer to the city center to avoid long commutes to work.



This assumes everyone works in the city center. There are tons of suburb to suburb commuters.
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Lilpup
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Username: Lilpup

Post Number: 2221
Registered: 06-2004
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 12:46 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

quote:

SUV repos will climb

I work next door to a repo yard - a few years ago he was doing great, rolling in dough, now he's behind on rent and bills and thinking of going out of business
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Rrl
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Username: Rrl

Post Number: 831
Registered: 12-2003
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 12:47 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Considering most suburban Detroiter's don't work in the City, that pretty much rules out B. Some may choose to move closer to work, but likely a suburb to suburb shift, rather than to the city.

What may actually become the outcome of rising gasoline prices is increased tele-commuting by those whose jobs can done away from the office.
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Johnlodge
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Username: Johnlodge

Post Number: 475
Registered: 10-2003
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 12:49 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

E. We overthrow the oil companies who are right now making record profits selling gas at an all time high, when the cost of crude oil actually isn't very high right now, but they say they can't refine the oil into gas fast enough because too many refineries are down, which is only because they have shut them down to make prices higher under the guise of "maintenence".
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Jeduncan
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Username: Jeduncan

Post Number: 97
Registered: 11-2006
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 1:26 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

I agree with Johnlodge.

But in the meantime I'll continue to ride my bike everywhere I go. Gas mileage is a lot cheaper on my bicycle.
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Thejesus
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Username: Thejesus

Post Number: 1291
Registered: 06-2006
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 1:30 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

I have to say D since the options given don't consider the fact that an extremely small percentage of suburbanites even work in the city...
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Lilpup
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Username: Lilpup

Post Number: 2222
Registered: 06-2004
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 1:42 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

some time ago there was a thread about who worked where

turns out that about as many people commute from the suburbs to work in the city as live in the city and commute to the suburbs
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Hans57
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Username: Hans57

Post Number: 127
Registered: 05-2006
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 2:24 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

The metro area will never have any form of regional governance. The closest form we have is Metroparks. None of the counties seem to want anything to do with Wayne. Maybe there's the exception of Washtenaw.
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Johnlodge
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Username: Johnlodge

Post Number: 479
Registered: 10-2003
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 2:28 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

^-- this message brought to you by the random thought department.
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Hans57
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Username: Hans57

Post Number: 128
Registered: 05-2006
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 2:33 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Random? Look to option "A".
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Detroitplanner
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Username: Detroitplanner

Post Number: 1255
Registered: 04-2006
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 2:37 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Suburban Detroiters will move closer to their suburban jobs.

City dwellers will also move out of the City to be closer to their suburban jobs.

You need to add additional oportunities for work in the City to see any appreciable reason to stop the exodous. Opportunities will not come any time soon for Detroit: taxes and overall living expenses are higher than in the suburbs, a restructuring of the world economy has dismissed our previous role as a manufacturing center. Maybe was can get another 200-300 gooogles to locate here?
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Dexterpointing
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Username: Dexterpointing

Post Number: 59
Registered: 05-2007
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 2:39 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

B. Suburban Detroiters will move closer to the city center to avoid long commutes to work.

lol open your eyes its already happening, midtown, downtown all the condo conversions.

Its shrinkage.
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Thejesus
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Username: Thejesus

Post Number: 1293
Registered: 06-2006
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 2:49 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Dexter:

Most of what's going on seems to be portion of the younger population who are buying/renting their first pace in Detroit rather than Novi and Royal Oak...and not that there's anything wrong with that, but there doesn't really seem to be a migration from the 'burbs to Detroit...Nobody is uprooting their families to bring them from Oakland county to Detroit...

And considering that Southfield alone has more office space than Detroit's CBD, I don't think you'll be seeing a relocation to or close to the city on account of gas prices...
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Rb336
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Username: Rb336

Post Number: 68
Registered: 02-2007
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 2:51 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

People will live in their cars and commute to work on their bikes ala Americathon
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Mikeg
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Username: Mikeg

Post Number: 883
Registered: 12-2005
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 3:39 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

As I posted on this Reverse Commuting thread from one year ago:



Here's some relevant data from a Wayne State University presentation (I couldn't find anything with more recent data, but it does show the magnitudes and trends):

Spatial Patterns as Percentage of All Work Trips
In the Detroit Metro Area, 1960-1990 (Slide #7)

........Detroit to....Suburb to...Between Suburbs
Year....Detroit.......Suburb.. .... & Detroit*

1960.....38%...........36%.... .......26%

1970.....23%...........49%.... .......28%

1980.....16%...........62%.... .......22%

1990.....11%...........71%.... .......18%

*(calculated by summing the other two percentages and subtracting from 100%; includes the so-called "reverse commuters")

Slide #8 indicates that in 1990, 43% of Detroit workers commuted to the suburbs, while 11% of Metro Detroit suburban workers commuted to jobs in Detroit.

Source (PDF document)

SEMCOG has commuting patterns based on 2000 census data, but they are only broken out county by county.


That SEMCOG data indicates that in 2000, there were 1,985,000 workers in Wayne, Oakland, Macomb and Washtenaw Counties. Their data shows only 23,000 workers commuting daily from Washtenaw to Wayne County and 25,000 from Wayne to Washtenaw County, for a total of 48,000 Washtenaw-Wayne inter-county commuters. There are twice as many Macomb-Wayne inter-county commuters (100,000), 2.8 times as many Oakland-Macomb inter-county commuters (136,000) and 4.8 times as many Oakland-Wayne inter-county commuters (230,000). There are only 15,000 Washtenaw-Oakland/Macomb inter-county commuters, so that means the remaining 1,455,000 workers (73% of the total) commute within their county of residence.

I would say that the available data disproves the underlying assumptions in Options B and C that there are large numbers of long-distance commuters in either of those situations.

(Message edited by Mikeg on May 25, 2007)
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Irvine_laird
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Username: Irvine_laird

Post Number: 56
Registered: 02-2007
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 5:05 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Please pardon me for asking (I moved here from Texas in February 2006): Could a candidate for a major regional office (county executive, mayor of Detroit/Southfield/Warren, etc.) get elected on a pro-regional, pro-mass transit platform?
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Redvetred
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Username: Redvetred

Post Number: 22
Registered: 04-2007
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 5:18 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

No chance !!! Who's supposed to pay for this? SMART and DDOT can't even cover operating costs let alone capital costs to build such a system. Taxpayers have had it in Michigan and we are going to have to bend over again if "Two-Penny Jenny" has her way to raise the income tax rate. Then we should see another mass exodus, not from Detroit, but out of Michigan. There are still many states that have NO income Tax.
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Detroitteacher
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Username: Detroitteacher

Post Number: 1053
Registered: 06-2006
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 5:50 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

I live 20 minutes from work (at Cooley High) so driving isn't an issue for me. Selling my house would be an issue since very few houses are selling right now. I doubt anyone would risk taking a loss on their house (or foreclosing) just to save a little on gas. If I were going to move, it would be out of state given the unemployment rate in MI.
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Mthouston
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Username: Mthouston

Post Number: 981
Registered: 01-2006
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 6:57 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

We're DOOMED, DOOMED I tell ya, DOOMED
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Detroitplanner
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Username: Detroitplanner

Post Number: 1256
Registered: 04-2006
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 8:38 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

"Redvetred"

There was not exactly folks busting down the door to get into Michigan when Big John and his merry band of Republicrats lowered the taxes by a pittance; but I suppose you forgot that he also raised your gas tax by 30 percent, your sales tax by 50 percent, as well as nearly every user fee didn't you?
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Lilpup
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Username: Lilpup

Post Number: 2224
Registered: 06-2004
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 8:40 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

damn, too bad Saddam's not around anymore, maybe he could've floated us a few more mil
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Eric_w
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Username: Eric_w

Post Number: 208
Registered: 02-2007
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 9:02 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

The premise that mass transit is the answer is seriously flawed. Many surburbanites don't even work in Detroit. I live in Lincoln Park & work in Romulus. A mass transit commuter train or subway into Detroit would do me little good.I'd take a bus except it's over 1/2 mile to my building from the nearest bustop and buses do not run readily when I have to be to work.
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Jjw
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Username: Jjw

Post Number: 315
Registered: 10-2005
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 10:22 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

C---If Metro Detroiters wanted mass transit, it would exist. The fact is, most don't give a shit.
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Ghetto_butterfly
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Username: Ghetto_butterfly

Post Number: 701
Registered: 09-2004
Posted on Friday, May 25, 2007 - 10:38 pm:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

C---If Metro Detroiters wanted mass transit, it would exist. The fact is, most don't give a shit.

And they love their gas-guzzling, pseudo-status demonstrating, small penis compensating SUV's way too much to look for an alternative anyway - so I'd say C
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Nere
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Username: Nere

Post Number: 35
Registered: 04-2007
Posted on Saturday, May 26, 2007 - 1:05 am:   Edit PostDelete Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

I wish "A", but I'm going to go with "C".

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