Discuss Detroit Archives - Beginning January 2007 Detroit News and journalistic integrity Previous Next
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Jt1
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Username: Jt1

Post Number: 8701
Registered: 10-2003
Posted on Wednesday, March 28, 2007 - 12:39 pm: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

In today's story, "Report links 21 to crime wave" our esteemed Mr. Josar states,

quote:

Still, if the 21 were responsible for more than 450 crimes, that tally is just a fraction of the robberies, carjackings and homicides committed annually in Detroit. In 2002, according to Uniform Crime Reports, the city reported 85,035 crimes.



My question is: UCR crime stats have been out for 2005 since October but he goes all the way back to 2002. The stats from 02 to 05 are as follows:

2002 - 85035
2003 - 83533
2004 - 73326
2005 - 74054

I have to wonder why would he use numbers that are 4 years old in a year that had 11,000 more crimes that the most recently reported year.

If you call bullshit on my claim that the local media has a bias or a complete lack of integrity I would love to hear an explanation as to why he would choose number from 2002 instead of 2005.

Article link: http://detnews.com/apps/pbcs.d ll/article?AID=/20070328/METRO /703280371/1003

Anyone willing to ask Mr. Josar why he would make such a 'mistake'
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Oldredfordette
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Username: Oldredfordette

Post Number: 1394
Registered: 02-2004
Posted on Wednesday, March 28, 2007 - 12:45 pm: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Josar is always consistent, anyway.
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Jt1
Member
Username: Jt1

Post Number: 8703
Registered: 10-2003
Posted on Wednesday, March 28, 2007 - 12:58 pm: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Now in the spirit of the article remember that the city keeps a most wanted list. Never hurts to look to see if you recognize someone:

http://www.ci.detroit.mi.us/po lice/mw/mwfile/index1.htm#C
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Irish_mafia
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Username: Irish_mafia

Post Number: 836
Registered: 10-2003
Posted on Wednesday, March 28, 2007 - 2:04 pm: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

They look like a friendly bunch of murderers.
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Rhymeswithrawk
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Username: Rhymeswithrawk

Post Number: 585
Registered: 11-2005
Posted on Thursday, March 29, 2007 - 10:57 am: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Remember, innocent until proved guilty, Irish!
As for the numbers, he probably didn't bother checking for more recent figures or was just lazy.
But regardless, to me, it's great to see those numbers going down, but 74,000 is still a schittload when you consider there's only 365 days in a year.
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Jt1
Member
Username: Jt1

Post Number: 8715
Registered: 10-2003
Posted on Thursday, March 29, 2007 - 11:05 am: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

quote:

But regardless, to me, it's great to see those numbers going down, but 74,000 is still a schittload when you consider there's only 365 days in a year.



There are a few things to consider. One third are auto thefts. I must say I was really expecting to see that number go down when DPD started requiring people to file a report in person but it only went down a couple percent.

This is reported crime so there are probably more propert crimes that went unreported. Whether there were more unreported in 2002 or 2006 is the big question.
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E_hemingway
Member
Username: E_hemingway

Post Number: 1120
Registered: 11-2004
Posted on Thursday, March 29, 2007 - 11:07 am: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Something else to keep in mind, 2005 was an election year and 2002 was right after an election year.
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Rhymeswithrawk
Member
Username: Rhymeswithrawk

Post Number: 586
Registered: 11-2005
Posted on Thursday, March 29, 2007 - 11:09 am: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Holy crap! Samuel (L.) Jackson is wanted for murder by the DPD!

http://www.ci.detroit.mi.us/po lice/mw/mwfile/pages/jackson_s amuel.htm
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Jt1
Member
Username: Jt1

Post Number: 8716
Registered: 10-2003
Posted on Thursday, March 29, 2007 - 11:14 am: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

quote:

Something else to keep in mind, 2005 was an election year and 2002 was right after an election year.



They've been going down on a pretty consistent trend until last year.
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Harpernottingham
Member
Username: Harpernottingham

Post Number: 154
Registered: 04-2006
Posted on Thursday, March 29, 2007 - 12:28 pm: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Editors, copy editors, fact-checkers ... sounds like they were all asleep at the wheel.

Again.
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Oldredfordette
Member
Username: Oldredfordette

Post Number: 1401
Registered: 02-2004
Posted on Thursday, March 29, 2007 - 1:12 pm: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

We don't need no stinking fact checkers! Look at the ads!
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Sstashmoo
Member
Username: Sstashmoo

Post Number: 53
Registered: 02-2007
Posted on Thursday, March 29, 2007 - 1:40 pm: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

The crime rate is relative to the population numbers. Should be lower actually.
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Jt1
Member
Username: Jt1

Post Number: 8726
Registered: 10-2003
Posted on Thursday, March 29, 2007 - 1:42 pm: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

Is that based upon analysis or just a gut feeling?
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Sstashmoo
Member
Username: Sstashmoo

Post Number: 54
Registered: 02-2007
Posted on Thursday, March 29, 2007 - 2:05 pm: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

""Is that based upon analysis or just a gut feeling?""

Neither, common sense. If you have 200 people that occasionally commit a crime and there are 50 crimes committed annually. Halving that to 100 people you should have 25 crimes committed annually.

However that doesn't seem to be the case. The crime rate isn't dropping at the same percentage. Which would also indicate that the perpetrators aren't leaving. Or the remaining population is becoming more inclined to commit a crime.
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Jt1
Member
Username: Jt1

Post Number: 8729
Registered: 10-2003
Posted on Thursday, March 29, 2007 - 2:13 pm: Edit PostDelete PostMove Post (Moderator/Admin Only)

That is what I am asking. Have you compared the population rates to the crime rates:

The crimes fell from 85k to 75 k since 2002. Has the population fell at a greater rate? Based upon 75K in 2006 it would mean that the population would need to be over 1MM in 2002. I don't believe that was the case.

Facts can often show common sense to be inaccurate. That is why I like to rely on the numbers. I understand your second sentence but the numbers don't support it.

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